Championship betting tip: Cardiff City- Bristol City
Nov 10, 2019
Championship: Cardiff City- Bristol City
The City derby !
Actually this is a derby of sorts, with only the River Severn /Bristol Channel separating the two cities. Anyway always a hard fought encounter.
On October 18th I updated the Championship ITB numbers .........
Championship:
Updated ITB table in actual league order ............
WBA +37
Nottm Forest -25
Preston NE +14
Swansea -4
Leeds +67
Bristol City -19
Fulham +30
Sheff Weds +19
QPR +14
Charlton-36
Cardiff +16
Birmingham +13
Derby -29
Blackburn +11
Millwall +11
Hull City -9
Brentford +48
Luton -31
Wigan -44
Middlesbrough -36
Huddersfield -54
Reading +18
Barnsley -38
Stoke City +28
"Expected" league table looks like this ........
1. Leeds 30 pts
2. Fulham 25
3. Brentford 20
4. Preston 20
5. Sheffield Weds 19
6. WBA 17
7. Stoke 17
11. Reading
17. Nottm Forest
20. Charlton
23. Bristol City
On all known data through 11 rounds it is impossible not to see Leeds United as the best team in the championship and they should have won 10 of those 11 games. After that it is bit of a lottery between Albion, Fulham and Brentford, the trio are placed 6-2-3 on expected numbers, 4,3, 2 for ITB and a very frustrating for Bees supporters 1,7,17 in the real table. But we have 35 rounds to play and it is difficult on the stats available at the moment not to see Fulham and Brentford replacing teams in the top 6 currently, with Forest and Bristol City looking the most likely to drop out. Bottom club Stoke City have top 6 -7 ITB and expected numbers and have that first win of the season now and if the could get a second this weekend it would build some momentum, reinforce the stats and get them on the move. Stoke numbers are really eyecatching and within them, they have been minus in just three games ( Leeds, Swansea and Brentford, amongst the stronger teams) and are +43 across the other 8, any justice in the world and they have to be climbing the table soon. They host Fulham on Saturday, which is not the dream fixture, but odds of circa 3.0 probably do not reflect the real chance of a City "upset" win.
In terms of ITB attempts "for", Leeds with 117 are the only team averaging over 10 per game ( 10.64), Albion, Reading, Swansea, Brentford are all around the 9 pg mark. Looking at ITB attempts "against", Leeds and Brentford have given up just 50 each, next best is 63 and only 5 teams are in the 60's making United and the Bees head and shoulders above the rest in this category.
Bristol City have created more than 7 attempts ITB in 3/11 just starts, giving up 7 + in all 11 (8 or more in 8). Forest are net plus ITB in just 2 of 11 and they have been at least -8 in three separate games, really awful reading for fans of either team.
Since I told you how poor Charlton were, after they beat Brentford to move third on Matchday 5 , they have yet to record a positive number and are -33 ITB across their last 7. Athletic and Swansea City are the only two teams outside the bottom 7 to have given up 100+ attempts ITB on their own goal.Reading are the 22nd team in the Championship, but have created 100 + attempts ITB, the third most after Leeds and WBA.
Those ITB numbers have held up incredibly well and repaid following many times over Brentford have won 4/5 and are up to 9th, Reading have taken 10 points from 4 starts etc. I will be updating ITB tables for all seven leagues in the next 7-10 days.
For today we can just discuss Cardiff and Bristol City, both have gone 1-2-1 subsequently, but the Bluebirds fixtures have come against teams with big + ITB numbers combined and their 4-2 win over Birmingham City last week where they played 40 minutes with team men (scoring twice after the sending off) showed tremendous will power and resilience. The Robins four starts were against Barnsley, Wigan, Charlton and Luton , they conceded 8 goals in those and you can see how bad the ITB totals were/are for that quartet.
Cardiff have served us well the couple of times we have backed them and ahead of a game with QPR last month I wrote ...........
We have backed City in their last two starts and ahead of the first my notes included ............
That talk of injury leads us nicely to City, hosts have a strong squad with plenty of good quality Championship talent and they have been playing ok, maybe not up to the level expected, but have done so with 7 starters missing pretty much all early season, they have four back now and the other three are "getting there" and we can see the Bluebirds as a potential improver from here on in. Their numbers have been decent anyway, top 5 for attempts ITB created and ahead of Boro by some way.None of the last 24 league meetings, all in the second-tier , have ended as a draw between Cardiff and Middlesbrough and in all competitions, City boss Neil Warnock (pictured) has won all eight of his home managerial matches against Middlesbrough, doing so with seven different teams. Home win, but may main point in covering this game today is to reiterate that "warning" about Boro and highlight City as likely to start improving.
They won that 1-0 and then drew 2-2 at Hull over the weekend, tonight Warnock will have his troops primed facing one of his former clubs and about whom I wrote ahead of a home game with WBA on Saturday .......
I guess I have to start with a warning and that is, as a lifelong Brentford supporter, Rangers are the one team I find it difficult to say anything positive about. Anyway, former Bees head coach Mark Warburton has made a good start at Loftus Road and their numbers look quite good and they will be delighted with 16 points, the same as today's opponent WBA. They were gifted the points last week at Millwall where the Lions were very much on top and I am struggling to see too much real quality in the home squad, they look midtable on paper and it will be a surprise if they end up higher, despite their current nose bleed position.
QPR lost 2-0 , Albion also "won" attempts ITB 10-1, on target 7-1, big chances 3-0, saves 0-5, Rangers also lost former Brentford central defender Yoann Barbet to a late red card and he is suspended tonight, I have nothing bad to say about the Frenchman, he was a model pro and very well liked by supporters at Griffin Park, but why Rangers ! Anyway, the "walk of shame" aside, he has played every minute of every league and cup game for QPR this season, but would have been lucky to make the bench at Brentford and that highlights the relative quality and why he made the move. I freely admitted Rangers numbers were good before the Albion game, but they are less so now, they were comprehensively outplayed and you have to have the quality too, otherwise solid stats can be just a blip over a handful of games and I just don't see it in much depth in Warburton's squad. Warnock will know plenty about the visitors, who are one of his former clubs and he will have his team "up" for this.
They won that 3-0 and whilst they have not fully kicked on, they are getting there and having lost to big rivals Swansea recently, they will not want to come up short in another high profile local game, let's trust the numbers !
1.75 units Cardiff City -0.75 ball 2.43 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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