Championship betting tip: Coventry City- Birmingham City
Nov 20, 2020
Championship: Coventry City- Birmingham City
This game is being at St Andrews which is Birmingham's home ground, but it is like a second home to the Sky Blues as this is their second full season at the stadium. I assume that Birmingham will have to use the away changing room which will doubtless feel weird, but that aside, this is not really a road game for the Blues.
The Championship numbers I published last week give an advantage to Birmingham beyond the 5 points the league table indicates, xP suggests it should be 8 and ITB puts them a net +32 and BC's a net advantage of 11. It is in attempts given up that Coventry have struggled most; they have allowed 27 BC's which is the joint highest in the Championship and the second most for ITB (101). I have had a good look at Coventry up close and in early season I noted ....................
I am loath to write off any team after one poor performance, but I watched all of Coventry City's 2-0 defeat to Brentford on Saturday and they were so bad that they cannot play at that level and be competitive against any solid Championship team and Swansea are better than that and genuine playoff contenders again this season. The Sky Blues were very slow to close down and left huge gaps in the middle of the pitch and on their left flank, I must have watched the whole of 400+ games (half live) in the second tier since 2014-15 and I cannot recall any team allowing the opposition so much space. Brentford had 55% possession which doesn't sound or mean much , it also seems incredibly low to anyone was watching, but I suspect that was because most of that was in the City half and without a visiting player within 5 metres of the ball !
Their 20 yo defender Sam McCallum said in an interview with the local Coventry newspaper:"It’s a massive step up from League One and there is a huge gap. We have to deal with it throughout the season, by finding our feet and getting some goals." I think the issue is as much at the other end of the pitch, they have allowed 16 attempts on target on their goal in the last two starts ( it should have been more) and they have conceded 5 in their two "home" games so far, home for them is St Andrews, the Birmingham City ground. That is no step into the unknown for the Swans whom we backed to win against the Blues here post lockdown, back in July, when they were big and easy winners and I noted ........... They (Brum results) came against Hull, Wednesday, Reading and Huddersfield, all teams with issues and/or scoring problems and inferior to Swansea, who have themselves scored 10 goals in their last five road games and won the reverse fixture 3-0. In that the Blues had just 27% possession ( I know it doesn't mean much, but that is super low in the Championship) and zero attempts on target.
City actually drew 1-1 with Swansea that day, but then lost 4-0 at home to Blackburn and 2-0 away to Middlesbrough subsequently (of course they did !) and Swansea took four points from two top teams in their next starts ! That's football, the ball is round and all that and you can get everything right and have good ideas and on the day they do not work out, but it doesn't mean you (or I) were wrong and that that thinking doesn't have value which can be used in the future.
Coventry have lost 7/11 starts, it should have been 8 or 9 and I remain to be convinced, when numbers tally with what you have seen with your own eyes you have to trust them and right now they look bottom 3. Having said all that, Birmingham are very hit and miss themselves and goals are a problem, they just do not score enough (just 12 in 18 starts) and ahead of their league opener this season I wrote ...............
Birmingham always have issues, they seem to lurch from one financial crisis to another and when they do have money to spend throw it around like confetti, they really are an awfully run club and now they have Aitor Karanka in charge ! Oh my goodness ! That is a match made in heaven ! My thoughts on him are well documented, it is while since we saw City play with attacking freedom and it "ain't" going to happen any time soon with Karanka in charge. The additions of George Friend and Adam Clayton from Middlesbrough would have been good 5-6 seasons ago, they are both past their sell by date, were not wanted by Boro , but are ideal for City and you know who !
I think the Birmingham squad is short of a big threat up front, but with far more quality and depth than Coventry's and this is a game they should be winning and the return to 5 subs should be a help to Aitor (one goal is plenty) Karanka. Not sure where he can go if he doesn't make a success of this job, but boring , negative football is acceptable to some when you are winning, but not when you are struggling. Supporters are already complaining and I suspect the head coach has until Christmas to turn things around/show more attacking threat and few games between now and the end of the year will be easier than this, but no games in the Championship are truly "easy". Birmingham are the better squad, create more chances and give up fewer. Coventry have 3-4 players who were with them in League 2 (17-18 season) and this is a big step up and the return to the five sub rule hardly helps clubs like them, as in many games this season head coach Mark Robins has only made 2 (of the 3 possible) changes, which hints strongly at a lack of quality or belief in his squad. I was amazed that at Brentford, 2-0 down with thirty minutes to play, he did not make a third substitution just to try something different, even for the last 5-10 minutes.
2 units Birmingham City -0.25 ball 2.22 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good luck !
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