Championship..........inside the box and other must have stats !
Mar 24, 2020
Championship:
ITB:
Teams are shown in league table order and all have now played 37 rounds.................
Leeds +214 (129-56)
WBA +97 (118-56)
Fulham +24 (90-72)
Brentford +145 (105-63)
*Forest -25 (85-85)
PNE +24 (78-85)
Bristol City -93 (77-111)
Millwall +26 (84-95)
Cardiff -10 (89-75)
Blackburn -2 (80-68)
Swansea -19 (90-91)
Derby -45 (67-81)
QPR +11 (83-94)
*Reading -49 (74-119)
Sheffield Weds +83 (84-78)
Birmingham +21 (86-84)
Stoke +91 (82-64)
Huddersfield -79 (87-81)
Middlesbrough -32 (77-73)
Wigan -46 (81-81)
Hull -50 (70-124)
Charlton -133 (60-102)
Luton -132 (51-87)
Barnsley -21 (78-80)
Figures directly next to each team are net ITB numbers for the 37 rounds played to date . Numbers in brackets/parentheses are for chances created-conceded for the last 11 games (* last 12 for these two teams) so Leeds for example have created 129 attempts inside the box, given up 56 for a net +73 for their last 11 starts, which means they are creating and additional 6.64 attempts ITB per game than opponents.
In basic terms , top half teams should have positive numbers and at this stage of the campaign, those at the very top +three digits, at the bottom, close to - three digits. It is never going to work out exactly like that, but fair to say in this Championship where the standard has been pretty poor, that Leeds have been the standout team by far through 37 games .
I have put good numbers in blue type, they are either good as they are big, or in relation to league position and poor numbers in red with the same criteria. For example, WBA are about where we would expect them to be, so their overall figures have remained in black type (but recent numbers, which are good, are in blue), Barnsley's -21 is in blue as it is far better than we would expect from a team in 24th place. Double blue or double red is worthy of closer inspection , but it is almost always the more recent stats we are most interested in.
There were a lot of borderline cases , by which I mean that teams like Huddersfield, Middlesbrough and Wigan could easily have recent numbers in blue, but I have tried to keep the highlighted figures to the extremes, the Derby offensive numbers for the last 11 games are in red as they are so low and of similar level to the bottom 3-4 teams.
Despite Sheffield Wednesday's eye catching +83 for a team in 15th, I did issue a warning about them after I went to Hillsborough in early December and noted .............
I saw Wednesday- Brentford on Saturday, late injury and illness meant that the Bees were without two of their starting back four in Pontus Jansson and Henrik Dalsgaard, the latter was replaced by young Danish right back Mads Roerslev Rasmussen who was making his first team debut start. Despite that Brentford dominated the first half , led 1-0 at the break and should have been two or three up at that time, it was the archetypal game of two halves though and Wednesday scored twice inside 3-4 minutes midway through the second, both from the same flank, with Kadeen Harris providing each from the side protected by Roerslev. The first was a gifted handball/penalty in a defining moment of the game.
The Owls were poor for much of the first hour, one dimensional, predictable and slow and the Bees must still be wondering how they lost and I am pondering how Wednesday have put together such good recent stats . I have had a look at their results and prior to Saturday, their eight wins came versus 17th placed Charlton, 18th Reading, 19th Middlesbrough, 20th Luton, 21st Huddersfield, 22nd Wigan, 23rd Stoke, 24th Barnsley and , having seen them close up, they will need a lot to go their way to beat the better teams.
They have gone 4-4-9 subsequently and they also have some financial issues and face a possible points deduction which is probably having a negative effect on all at the club too, they have conceded 3+ goals in four of their last five starts and in a tailspin . I always say that the ITB and XP stats are a starting point and we have to use them alongside something we have preferably seen with our own eyes.
ITB puts top ten as ...........
Leeds +214
Brentford +145
Albion +97
Stoke +91
Wednesday +83
Millwall +26
Fulham +24
PNE +24
Birmingham +21
QPR +11
Every other team is on a negative number and further highlights, IMO, the lack of quality in the Championship this season.
Bottom 4 are...........
Huddersfield -79
Bristol City -93
Luton -132
Charlton -133
and of those, only Huddersfield are on the up.
XP sees the top 10 as...........
Leeds 93 pts
Brentford 76
WBA 66
Stoke 62
Wigan 61
Fulham 60
Wednesday 59
QPR 55
PNE 54
Swansea 52
Bottom 4 are...............
Derby 35 pts
Luton 29
Bristol City 26
Charlton 25
Some other stand out stats which might help with "in play" betting if we ever see this season restart and I am hoping, we will as that is the only fair and realistic option............
I often mention 15 minute game splits, best two teams in any of these are both Brentford ! They are 19-2 (scored-conceded) between the 16th-30th minutes ,+17 is an incredible number (next best in this most competitive of leagues through this period is +4 !) and they are 13-2 for the 76th minute+.
I always think that well coached teams improve immediately after the break, after they have had those 15 minutes to relay some thoughts and again through the middle of the second half when substitutions are usually being made and Leeds are an eyecatching 23-6 (scored- conceded) beween the 46th-75th minute and few would argue against Marcelo Bielsa being a top coach.
Blackburn Rovers have a 12-2 goal difference for their opening 15 minutes, a period when most teams are playing their way into games (next best is +4) and even more impressive, within that number, Rovers are 9-1 on the road (next best is 5-3 and no one has scored more than five).
Game of two halves is often quoted, but Preston North End are two teams in one half ! They have a 22-11 goal difference in the opening 30 minutes of the second period, but are 3-13 for the final 15 and they have conceded 24 of 45 goals in the final 15 of each half combined and appear not to see either 45 minute period out well defensively.
Leaders WBA have a 27-12 goal difference (+15) for the final 30 minutes of games good for #1, only other teams with double digit numbers are Brentford (+13), Forest (+11) and Leeds and Cardiff City ( both +10). The Bluebirds are worthy of note as they are -8 goals for the first hour of games.
Bristol City have conceded 28 of 53 goals in the final 30 minutes, my reasoning would be that teams have worked out that the Robins are not very good (see ITB and XP numbers) by then !
Charlton are the second best home first half team in the Championship with a 8-9-2 record and 33 points, but are ranked 24th after the break with just three wins and 16 points.
Forest are the 20th ranked first half team with just 41 points, but are #2 after the break when they collect 68 and have lost just once (16-20-1), every other team has lost at least 5 games, for all their faults, and Forest certainly have them and they are not pleasing to the eye, Forest are disciplined and tactically aware and not the kind of team you want to concede first against.
Swansea have gone in level at half time in a Championship high 64.86% of games.
Millwall and Blackburn Rovers have drawn a division high 21 of 37 second halves.
In terms of XGF Leeds should have scored an additional 12 goals, Middlesbrough 9.7 more and they are the two big "under achievers", at the other end of the pitch XGA says that Stoke have conceded 13.6 goals more than they should have done.
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.
Good Luck.
We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Country:
Sport:
Competition:
Football Teams: