clubgowi Championship notes

Dec 29, 2015

Tuesday December 29th

I saw an incredibly interesting game at Reading yesterday, we got the desired win for Brentford and they played well, especially over the last 20 minutes once they changed things around a little (which is something we can talk about in the near future), but the Royals are a big potential improver and are better than perhaps half of the teams currently ahead of them in the Championship table IMO and they will definitely be featuring a little in the coming weeks. I will also remind you of my comments regarding xxxxxx xxxxxx yesterday, they lost again, thankfully, but are a team close to turning things around and we can be ahead of the game with these two in the "right" fixtures.

We are just about at the half way mark in English football and patterns have started to be formed and in terms of stats, they are traditionally good to follow over the next 4-8 weeks and I will try to include a look at them in all posts from now on in, but there were clues as to which team I expected to end the games stronger in both the WBA and Plymouth previews yesterday, which played out well enough.

I also want to put up 2-3 long term selections in the next ten days or so, we do not have many, but are in good positions with all that we do have......Palace, Arsenal, Derby, Gillingham and even Brentford (especially those of you who got involved at the time of the "update" when they were some huge odds on offer) and in the NFL with Carolina and I think we can add to those and I am excited about a couple of options, but just want to get the final week of regular season NFL games out of the way first along with the hectic English football holiday programme.

Championship:

Fulham - Rotherham United

Hosts lost 2-0 at Derby County on Boxing Day ( see below), where the Rams were a little sub par, ahead of that I wrote.....

Fulham are at best an average Championship team and one in (if I am being generous) transition, they need a lot to go their way to win right now, received a bit of a blow with the transfer embargo enforced on them this week and they conceded five goals in two of the three meetings with County last season and the Rams are a much stronger group this season. I will opt for the bigger handicap and hope and expect the goals to flow.

The West London team are very vulnerable defensively, are without a clean sheet in 12 and have conceded two or more in each of their last five and as I said at the weekend, need a lot to go their way and to click offensively to get a result currently. They are not bad going forward at times, but this tends to be in brief spells and they are wildly inconsistent. The same could be said of the Millers and a last ten game record of 4-0-6 bears that out , but there have been real signs of improvemnet recently and back to back home wins over Bolton Wanderers and especially highflying Hull City by an aggregate 6-0 will have done wonders for their confidence and they should certainly travel in good spirits and a point would take them out of the drop zone and a win level on points but (probably) not above Fulham. I do think they will score and that the hosts will need two goals, maybe even three to win this, but we do usually get goals when two struggling teams meet .

Fulham have had a massive boost with Slavisa Jokanovic being appointed as head coach a couple of days ago, the Serbian took Watford up to the EPL before being unable to agree new terms with the club and this would not have been a "cheap"

appointment, compensation of circa $500k had to be paid to Maccabi Tel Aviv and I understand his salary demands were quite big and this put a number of other clubs off approaching him, but Fulham bit the bullet and I suspect have also agreed to release funds for him to do some dealing in the transfer window which is about to re-open. He will not have had much time to spend with the players, but knows this league well and he is tactically very astute and he might be able to have some influence beyond the players wanting to impress him. Both teams should score and I feel the best way to play this is ..............1.5 units "over" 3 goals 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket.

Fulham's home games have averaged exactly 2.0 goals in the second half, which is the third highest in the Championship, the Millers have conceded a league high 22 first half goals and whether they come early or late this looks sure to produce goals .

Leeds United- Derby County

We have discussed County an awful lot in revent months and ahead of their last road game, an always difficult trip to Portman Road to face Ipswich Town my notes included...........

Boro won (at Ipswich) with Nugent scoring and causing the usual problems with his pace and movement and I feel County can cause similar problems today. The Rams are boosted by a 4-0 win over Bristol City in midweek and if you want to look at a couple of recent previews of their games, they can be read in that Tuesday (15th December) newsletter. They actually started with Darren Bent and allowed Chris Martin a night off, not that he would have thanked boss Paul Clement for that and he would have probably been pulling his hair out on the bench ,seeing the goals that were on offer. He seems sure to start today and will be hungry for a performance and to ensure the #9 spot remains his.Tom Ince was thrilled with his hat trick after not scoring for 11 weeks, he had three in four immediately before that dry spell, he scored 11 in 18 for County last season ,coming in spells of six in four weeks and five in four weeks and is clearly "streaky" and just what you want when following a goalscorer and he has all the attributes like Nugent (and more)to trouble Ipswich and at 3.25-3.40 ( 1 unit) he (Tom Ince) looks decent value in the anytime goalscorer market.

The Rams won 1-0 with Ince scoring the winner and whilst he did not follow up at home to Fulham last time out, he was very influential in a 2-0 win, although,to be honest , County were nowhere near their best in that and we can certainly expect a more upbeat showing today. We have focused on their strength in depth and that was illustrated with the win over Bristol City (see above) and they are well suited by these quick turnarounds, or at least better suited than most other teams as surely every club would like a full seven days to recover and prepare, but Paul Clement can rotate 3-4 players without any weaking of the collective and that is the difference between the top 5-6 in this division and the pack. I will say this one more time, the Championship is a cut throat league, perhaps the most truly competitive in world football and even the struggling teams are capable of feeding on the slightest weakness and so many matches are decided by the strength of the bench, as opposed to the starting eleven.

United are in their best form of the season under "new" boss Steve Evans (pictured), who would not win any popularity contests outside of Elland Road and are unbeaten in December, his team could move into the top ten with all three points and that would be huge for them and Evans might be tempted to name an unchanged team for the third game running, but I am not sure that would be to their advantage in any case ,that is the difference we have already alluded to and they cannot rotate without weakening. In addition, even in terms of starting elevens, the hosts are a little behind the top six and an upper mid table finish will have to be the extent of their ambitions for this season and would at least give this massive club something to build on. The hosts have won the last two h2h meetings, including here last season and a smash and grab 2-1 win at Pride Park very early this campaign. Prior to those, the Rams were unbeaten in 11 meetings and were 4-1-0 in that sequence here at Elland Road. Visiting boss Clement and his team have spoken about that home loss, one of only two suffered all season a LOT in build up and have firmly targeted some revenge, they feel they are twice the team now and defensively they are a different level, especially on the road, where they have conceded just five in eleven starts. Three points would take the Rams back to the top and above Middlesbrough, whom they travel to face on Saturday, so not only would victory mean they could enter 2016 in first place, but they would have a buffer over the chasing pack and could go to the Riverside under far less pressure for a result and any time you can play a big game with less pressure it is a bonus.

1.5 units Derby County -0.75 ball 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket.

Cardiff City- Nottingham Forest

I discussed recently the nasty habit that City had developed of droppting two goal leads and in the recent home fixture with Brentford, when the Bees equalised for 2-2, several hundred home fans immediately left the stadium, despite there being probably another 7-8 minutes left to play and confidence is a bit fragile to say the least and the Bluebirds are almost "expecting" to blow a lead. They have conceded 90% of home goals after the break and Forest , who in my opinion are the better coached team (stronger HT adjustments), have scored 86% of away goals in the second half and I would be very keen on the visitors ending this the stronger, especially if they were trailing.

1.25 units Nottingham Forest at the first asian handicap half time quote priced at above odds of above 2.0 as long as they are not already leading and we are playing 11 v 11.

Brighton - Ipswich Town

Brighton were very unambitious at Griffin Park on Boxing Day and I included a lot of quotes from that game in yesterday's Reading- Brentford preview, the Seagulls were content to sit back , limit space and play for a point after their 3-0 home loss to Middlesbrough. I can understand needing to try and get back on track, but they never really looked like scoring, are a bit hard hit by injury and really need to spend in the window to remain in the top six, they are a long way behind Derby, Boro and even Hull on what I have seen. Anyway, no goals in two and here at the AmEx they are most vulnerable early, conceding a whopping 70% of goals in the opening 30 minutes and with confidence fragile right now, another nervous start might well be on the cards, Town have won their last four road starts, scoring 11 goals and 11/18 away goals this season have come before the break and there must be a little value in........

1 unit Ipswich Town level ball 2.44 First Half betting asian line/Sportmarket.

Good Luck.

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