Europa League: Sevilla- FC Basel
We sided with Basel off level ball at big odds in the first leg ............
Sevilla are looking to win the competition for a fifth time and the third year in a row and meet all the criteria for going deep once again. However, it is all about value and the hosts look over priced in my opinion, Sevilla are always capable of turning around any tie at home and are still not without a chance of finishing fourth in La Liga and clinching a Champions League spot via that route, they currently trail Villarreal by eight points, which is plenty, but host them at the weekend and I feel they will want to keep all CL options open as long as possible and cannot yet, give their 100% undivided attention to the tie with Basel.
The hosts put out St Etienne in the last round, ahead of the away first leg I wrote ...........The visitors are one of the most experienced european teams left in the competition and as a club, they feel they have their strongest squad for a decade, they have won their two games after the Swiss restart by a combined 7-0, the 4-0 away win over second placed Grasshoppers, who felt similarly about their own strength this season, was incredibly impressive. It opened up a 15 point lead at the top of the table and all but sealed a seventh straight domestic title. That will ensure that all their focus from now on in is on the Europa League and this "golden generation" which seems sure to be broken up in the summer, with several players catching the eye of some of the biggest clubs in Europe, genuinely see themselves as potential winners.
I updated those notes prior to the return............St Etienne led 2-0 there inside 40 minutes, but when Basel levelled the match it looked to be running away from the French side, but all credit to them they battle back to take a one goal advantage into this evening. The Swiss side had enough chances to have taken at least a draw, but will have been very disappointed with their defending for the free goals and aerially, Saints gave then a lot of problems from dead ball situations and Basel will surely have been working on that in build up. They got back on track with a facile 5-1 league win at the weekend , whilst ASSE remain in fourth place in Ligue 1 with a 1-1 draw at Marseille, where they conceded an equaliser deep in injury time to ten men and you just wonder if they feel that would have turned out differently if they had not had such a tough game last Thursday, or had rotated more. I definitely feel we will see 4-5 changes tonight, the squad which has travelled is big enough to allow for that and this time they do not have massive home support to please.
They made hard work of their 2-1 win, but edged through, they will not want to travel to Spain without a lead and given the visitors very poor road form (0-9-5 in La Liga and 0-0-4 in Europe !), we can take the Swiss champions to find a way to win this.
The thinking behind that game was spot on I feel, but we and Basel had to settle for 0-0. Sevilla did get that big win over Villarreal at the weekend, so are now just five points off Champions League pace, they go to Real Madrid on Sundayand will have to look for the win there given their situation, but that is a big ask and Los Rojiblancos will surely be no less determined to progress tonight and to ultimately claim that famous hat-trick of Europa League wins. They win over Villa was even more noteworthy as, after taking the lead early, they trailed 2-1 at the half, fought back to lead 3-2, had a player sent off, yet still scored a fourth goal a man short against a top 4 team. That was the second match running they had to deal with a late dismissal and they must be feeling a little drained, the players had Tuesday off and will do a light training session this morning, after which they will name their squad, hard to see too many surprises.
Basel are hard hit by injury and suspension, especially at the back and with the hosts so strong at home ( 16 straight wins, 11 of the last 13 by 2+ goals) and almost certain to score, have no option but to look for a goal, probably two themselves and that is how they tend to play on the road in any case, being so dominant domestically. We saw the threat that Basel pose away from home in the tie at St Etienne (see above) and also how vulnerable they are and if we get an early breakthrough goal for either team and I am talking first half , not first ten minutes, this could and should develop into a shoot out. The home crowd are not going to let Sevilla sit back for too long in any case, both to score and ...........
1.25 units "over" 3 goals 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
