Europa League betting tip :Shakhtar Donetsk- Basel
Aug 11, 2020
Europa League:Shakhtar Donetsk- Basel
Last Wednesday Donetsk hosted Wolfsburg and I wrote ...............
This is an interesting game with Donetsk leading 2-1 from the first leg where they also hit the woodwork and might have added another goal in an open game, as so many of their European ties have been. Shakhtar are very experienced european campaigners and successful ones, they have played in the Champions League every year this millenium, making the group stage 14 times ( and having just qualified for a 15th by virtue of winning their domestic title by 23 points !), making the knockout stage 4 times. They have made the last eight of this competition twice, winning it in 2009.
What you do almost always get with them and what we usually focus on, is goals. Their last 20 Champions League games have seen 16 (80%) produce 3+ goals, within that 9/10 as host have gone "over" 2.5 and they have conceded in all 10. In this competition over the same period their five games have all seen 3+ goals , with both teams scoring in each. Those numbers will give Wolfsburg hope that they can turn this around and the additional incentive for them is that the quarter finals onwards will be staged in Germany. Wolfsburg have not played since June 27th , they had a month off which feels fine, but only returned for pre season training 12 days ago. They will give this a go I am sure and we can still expect goals, but that feels far from ideal and I wonder how confident they are, as it says on the club website that they will be in a training camp in Harsewinkel between August 11-14 which is when the QF is scheduled. Having said that, it is only 90 minutes from Gelsenkirchen and probably a good base if they turn the tie on its head , so maybe we should not read anything much into that.
The Wolves won 4 of their five post lockdown away starts, two by a 4-1 scoreline (Leverkusen and Schalke) , so if fit, would have a chance, but they have to be way off those kind of match fitness levels.
Donetsk season ended July 19th and they appear to have been "ticking over" subsequently, played two test matches last week and trained hard over the last 7 days, the club referred to this as one of the most important games in recent seasons and midfielder Marcos Antonio said: “We understand how difficult the game will be . But we’ve been preparing for this day for a long while, so we’ll show our best performance and try to advance to the next round of the competition. I remember well the first leg against Wolfsburg in Germany, when I managed to score the winner. I hope it will help Shakhtar on their way to the Europa League quarter-finals. Currently, we’ve been studying the strengths and weaknesses of the opponents. "On the 5th of August, we will be as concentrated as possible in order to make it further.”
I have spoken often in the past about how important this competition and European football was to teams from Ukraine even when some other countries used to give the Europa League scant regard and Donetsk have been bigging this game up for weeks and it is a massive game for club and supporters. Home win and goals .
The Ukranian champions won that 3-0, with all the goals coming late , but might have scored 4-5 and missed a number of great opportunities (3 BC's) before they opened the scoring.
Basel also hosted a German side playing Frankfurt a day later...............
Basel's season only ended on Monday, so they will definitely be the fitter, they drew their final two starts 0-0 after they were resigned to finishing third and that might indicate how they are going to set up tonight defending such a big lead against a team who have shown an explosive offense at times in recent years. Having said that, this tie looks done and I suspect they would like a goal or two to take into their quarter final with Shakhtar Donetsk that they will play as a one off game in Gelsenkirchen on Tuesday.
Frankfurt have not played a competitive game since June 27 and only returned to training on July 29th, 8 days ago and have just 17 registered players available. CM Djibril Sow is suspended and they have conceded 30 goals in the last 12 games he has played less than 45 minutes. That highlighted line is key for me, Wolfsburg started brightly for 10-15 minutes last night, but looked sluggish for much of the game after that and 8-14 days into pre season must be about the worst time possible to play a competitive game, you could not sit down and plan a better time to face a Bundesliga team. We do not like to side with teams who do not need to win too often, but it is very difficult not to see Basel ending this the stronger and you do feel they need a goal or two and win to take into that game with Donetsk.
Basel have kept four straight Europa League clean sheets and only conceded three in seven competition starts.
The Swiss side won that 1-0 and made a mockery of their big odds, creating all of the five of the BC's in the game, with Kevin Trapp in the visitors goal the stand out Frankfurt performer.
Despite the lack of goals that Basel have given up, I do not see them as a defensive team, but they are happy to play without the ball and look ideally set up for European football and are no less experienced at it than Donetsk. They have won 8/10 competition starts with their sole loss coming in a game they did not need to win.
I like Donetsk as a club and team, they always attack and are fun to watch , but leave themselves vulnerable to the counter and feel good opponents for how Basel are likely to set up and want to play. As it always must, it all comes down to odds and whilst I can agree with Shakhtar as marginal favourites, quotes of sub 1.90 just feel wrong.
Donetsk have won one of their last five "away" starts in Europe conceding in each, 12 goals total.
2 units Basel +0.25 ball 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket.
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