I often use trends and previous/ h2h meetings as a starting point for my analysis, please note that I said "starting point", they alone are no reason to bet, but if it leads you in the right direction, it is obviously beneficial to my way of thinking and whilst many people say how can a match played 12 months ago have any bearing on one taking place today ? There are many reasons why it could, players or sportsmen could have positive or negative memories of the event/match and who would not feel their spirits lift, or a small skip in their step returning to a venue where something uplifting has happened to them in the past and vice versa. Also, there can be reasons why teams might perform poorly (or well) in certain competitions each season, for example, if an owner tells a coach that he is a realist and his only ambition for this season is survival and that he expects nothing from the cup games and has made no provision for advancement in them in the budget, how is that coach going to approach a midweek cup tie with a league game in four days time ?  Lies, damned lies and statistics is a popular phrase which dates back to the 19th century, it is true, but it doesn't mean that they are not very useful !

 

 

 

I am going to touch briefly on the league cup games in France in this email, we have done very well with these in the past and early rounds usually produce goals and home field advantage is questionable . Last year, ahead of the second round of games, which this season will take place later this month I wrote ............

 

 

That round of six matches saw five go "over" at an average of 3.17 goals and the ten 3rd round fixtures saw eight with three or more goals and six producing at least four.

 

The more eagle of you out there will have noticed that we are only playing R1 tonight ! Last season nine out of ten of these produced at least two goals and in the last three seasons, 33 opening round fixtures have seen only 11 end in home wins inside 90 minutes, so 33% (odds 3.0) and every single home team this evening is priced way below that level and these stats provide a very solid STARTING POINT for looking at tonight's fixtures.

 

 

 

Good Luck.