France: Ligue 2 betting tip: Red Star- Lorient
Sep 14, 2018
France: Ligue 2: Red Star- Lorient
Late last month ahead of a home game with Auxerre I spoke about the lack of goals at Red Star and their struggle to make the step up to L2 level ..........
Newly promoted Red Star are winless with just two goals in five competitive starts, they have yo-yoed between the second and third tier in recent campaigns and in 2016-17 scored just 7 times in their opening 12 starts and goals are clearly hard for them to come by at this level and their style of football feels more suited to National and one win in 15 Ligue 2 starts (scoring 0.75 goals pg) makes dismal reading . Their head coach was dismissed by the two previous teams he coached at this level for being too negative which all ties in with what we know about the team and with their own ground not deemed up to Ligue 2 standards, they have to play home games in Beauvais (only 1,500 at last game here) which is 80km from their stadium in Saint-Ouen, so limited advantage on "home" soil. Striker Abdoulaye Sane contributed to 40% of goals scored last season (13 goals and three assists) and they scored just once and took a single point from the three games he missed and in a promotion campaign ! He hasn't been replaced as far as I can see.
Red Star actually won that 1-0 but Auxerre battered the home goal "winning" shots 17-7, on target 6-2, inside box 11-3, woodwork 1-0, corners 10-3, saves 1-6 , with 61% possession and dominated all passing stats. In their only subsequent starts Red Star lost 2-1 at Gazelec where the host played 25 minutes and scored the winner down to 10 men.
Lorient are unbeaten, up to second now and have conceded just three goals in their eight competitive starts (two cup) which includes five on the road. Ahead of one of those a trip to Ajaccio I wrote ........
The visitors adapted well to Ligue 2 last season following relegation from the top flight and finished 7th, just three points off the playoff pace. After opening their campaign with a 0-0 draw, they have won four in a row, scoring nine goals , with three and six (goals) coming on the road, one in the cup. 24yo striker Pierre Yves Hamel is starting to look like that 20 goal a season player that every team crave, he has four already (264 minutes played) and scored 10 in 17-18 from fairly limited game time, he has scored six in the last six games in which he has played 30 minutes plus. Lorient do not look like they have made the trip to play scared or for one point and have come with a very adventurous looking squad. They could actually move top with a win, were here on the island here two weeks ago, beating Gazelec 3-1 and will have very positive memories of that stepping off the plane.
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They actually drew that 0-0, but won the exact same fixture a couple of days later and edged past Grenoble just before the break. I am not quite sure that Lorient are the real deal just yet, they went 7 unbetaen to start last season too and their budget has been trimmed significantly for this campaign and they sold 18m worth of talent in the summer and spent next to nothing. However, they look more of a team now, work incredibly hard and play with high energy and have a good mixture of youth and experience. They have a young goalkeeper in Illian Meslier who looks a much better option than Danijel Petkovic who, despite not letting in many, still looks accident prone and Hamel ( see above) looks to have come on immensely and his all round contribution, in addition to goal threat is huge. 20 yo wide midfielder Alexis Claude Maurice might be the best of the lot, has three goals and an assist, Yoane Wissa has one and two himself , is only 22 and has benefitted from his first pre season at the club and Lorient have a lot of super promising offensive options and look solid at the back.They have a lot of pace going forward look ideally suited to playing on the road and have to be my selection.
1.75 units Lorient -0.25 ball 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket.
Red Star FC : Douchez, Rénot - Satli, Derrien, Mendy, Sy, Lefebvre, Diakité, Mfulu, Faucher, Sao, Bourgaud, Berthier, Donisa, Tomas, Lapoussin, Mhirsi, Baradji.
Lorient : Pattier, Petkovic – Mendes, Sainati, Saad, Saunier, Le Goff, Rose – Sarr, Lemoine, Cabot, Claude-Maurice, Etuin, Edjouma, Lokilo – Courtet, Wissa, Hamel.
Good Luck.
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