France: Ligue 2 betting tips: Metz-Red Star // Troyes- Orleans
Dec 04, 2018
France: Ligue 2:
Metz-Red Star
Troyes- Orleans
Troyes have now won 7/10 are up to 8th and could move to within a couple of points of Lorient (currently third) with the victory this evening, they are coming off a 3-0 win at Red Star on Friday evening ..................
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I previewed Troyes' last away start...............
I bet Troyes wish they could go back and play their first six games over, the first was alright, a 1-0 win at Ajaccio ahead of which I spoke about the make up of their squad ...........
They start at home to relegated Troyes, who know how to get out of this division, with three promotions to Ligue 1 in the last seven seasons, relegated teams usually lose a few players and need a period of adjustment, the former has happened, but the latter is not the case with such massive L2 experience at the club and they have spent wisely bringing in even more senior players and I doubt there is a club with more knowledhe of this level amongst their ranks. They have added or bought back to the club Raveloson, Kashi, Touzghar, Salmier, Letellier and Berthomier amongst others, they have close to 500 L2 starts between them and promotions out of this league with five different teams, Touzghar and Berthomier 60 L2 goals. They have also made the transfer of Korean international striker Hyun-jun Suk permanent from Porto for a huge fee in French second tier terms. Cordoval, Niane (L2 top scorer with 23 goals two seasons ago), Darbion, Ben Saada and Benjamin Nivet who made his debut when Methuselah was still going to school in short trousers, have some 1,000 (!) L2 starts total, plus about 500 at the higher level and I do not think I have ever seen so much experience and know how at this level, not even close.
But they lost 5 in a row after that ! Subsequently they are 5-1-1 and now up to 9th and "only" 9 points behind the leaders, given that they looked in trouble and out of promotion contention just six games into the campaign, that is a massive turnaround. They have averaged 2.0 goals per game over those seven starts, only Brest have scored more (Gazelec just 0.57 pg).
I updated a few weeks back with .......
However, I am mindful of that run in 2014-15 when Troyes won 24 games and ran away with the title and this is a club with big potential and in a false position in the table.
The hosts have further added to their squad with right sided midfielder Vincent Marcel from Nice, defensive midfielder Christopher Martins Pereira from Lyon and young Bryan Mbeumo has been upgraded from the B team to play on the opposite flank to Marcel and has 3 goals and two assists in his last three starts. Alongside all that huge experience outlined in early season, that looks an awful lot of talent and a nice mix. The win over Chateauroux was very impressive, keeper Mamadou Samassa is a man mountain and in a rich vein of form right now, Mbeumo (is he really only 19yo) and Kevin Fortune were running riot up top and causing problems on every attack and Chat are decent and a good yardstick.
Incredibly, their six outfield players on the bench last week in a 4-2 win over Valenciennes have 882 Ligue 2 , 593 Ligue 1 apperances betweem them and that is massive experience and know how to be able to call upon late in games, either to see matches out, or salvage/claim a result.
They lost that 2-1, but we now know that the winner, Gazelec, are probably better and certainly more adventurous than previously expected and on the up ( see Monday's newsletter), Troyes got back to winning ways last week with a 2-0 defeat of highflying Lorient. However, today it is just as much about opposing Red Star, who are are now 5 points from safety with only one club below them in the table and they lost to that team (Nancy) last weekend. They have won only once since August and conceded 21 goals in those subsequent 10 starts, they have scored only a single goal in five starts and lost their last two at home by a combined 7-0, including 4-0 to Orleans who have a 0-6 goal difference in their three outings since ! Today Red Star will be without suspended DM Grégoire Lefebvre and central defender Mourad Satli who has been covering at left and right back this season with his team short handed in both positions due to injuries and options are limited again today.
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They were two up inside 25 minutes by which time the game was over as a contest and the third came well before the hour mark.
Red Star moved bottom of Ligue 2 by virtue of previous basement club Nancy winning away to Orleans ( more about them shortly) and they have now picked up just one point from a possible 18 and that was hugely against the run of play ( 2-17 attempts inside the box !) and failed to score in 5 of 6 (that sole goal coming from one of those two attempts) and lost 3/5 by 3+ goals and now travel on a short week to play the league leaders !
Metz have taken 7 points from 9 after a mini blip and could now do with an emphatic win just to really get back on track and cement their position as Ligue 2 front runners. RS get Lefebvre and Satli ( see above) back today, but now lose CB Maxence Derrien and DM Clément Chantôme to suspension and starting keeper Nicolas Douchez to injury ..............it never rains but it pours ! That leaves them woefully weakened at the back against arguably the best offense in L2, with Metz striker Habib Diallo having scored two more than the entire Red Star team.
Red Star: Sébastien Rénot, Paul Charruau - Harouna Sy, Mourad Satli, Matthieu Fontaine, Xavier Tomas, Formosa Mendy - Teddy Teuma, Omenuke Mfulu, Loïc Lapoussin, Emmanuel Bourgaud, Grégoire Lefebvre, Grégory Berthier, Samba Diakité - Moussa Sao, Julio Donisa , Amadou Diallo, Jordan Faucher.
Metz: Delecroix, Oukidja - Boye, Delaine, Sunzu, Balliu, Jans, Baïga, Fofana - Angban, Cohade, Boulaya, Jallow, Gakpa - Nguette, Niane, River, Diallo.
Troyes now host Orleans who lost at home to Nancy on Friday, that makes one point and one goal from four starts for them and their early season issues have returned, something I discussed 11 days ago...........
Orleans have had a very odd campaign, ahead of their opening game when they hosted Lens I spoke about their low budget and how they had overperformed last season and again had to try and unearth a couple of bargain basement gems...........
I have spoken often of Racing Club Lens as a massive club, way too big for L2 given their budget, history and level of support. The former has been trimmed a little this season, but is still by far the biggest in the second tier at 36m euros and greater than that of which nine Ligue 1 teams operated on last season. It is almost five times bigger than what Orleans (4th smallest) have to live within and highlights the different levels of expectation at the respective clubs, Lens had a disasterous start to 2017-18 and simply have to compete for promotion this year as a minimum, Orleans will settle for survival.
Orleans have sold Yannick Gomis (17 goals in 46 L2 starts) to Lens (he is in the squad to face his former team tonight) and had to search for a replacement and any arrivals in the bargain basement. RCL, given their budget, can cast their net wider and higher, for example Massadio Haidara is a fomer French U21 international and had several injury hit years with Newcastle making 38 apperances in the Premier League, if he proves his fitness, he should be a wonderful addition at this level. Orleans finished 3 points above Lens last season , but the bigger club started 1-0-8 and eased off late once they were safe, I am expected a very fast start from them this time round and possibly Orleans to struggle.
They lost that 2-1 and their first three starts (two at home) by a combined 10-1, Orleans then went 7-1-1 (!) and forced their way up to 5th in an amazing turnaround, but they have lost their last two starts both 3-0 (Clermont and Grenoble) two teams who are inferior to Brest IMO and it is difficult to know which Orleans will turn up. They also "lost" shots on target 13-4 in those two defeats so I cannot see those as unlucky, or against the run of play. So a 7-1-1 run inbetween five defeats when they conceded 16 goals ! I suspect they are somewhere between the two, not as good or as bad as either sequence, but their form v top 9 teams is suspect ,1-1-5 with 4 losses by 2+ goals and having conceded 3+ in four and I have to favour Brest today. Hosts are without both starting central defenders in suspended Gabriel Mutombo (lost 3-1 to Le Havre only start he missed) and injured Adrien Monfray( 1-1-4 in his absence, 5-0-2 when he plays, conceding an extra 1.47 goals pg when he is missing !). Two huge losses. Orleans only have one other recognised senior centre back and that is the issues when budget is small and you start to lose players.
They are unchanged from Friday (Monfray see above is still absent), the same group who allowed the basement club five attempts on target, three big chances (two missed) and two goals and, with neither Orleans or Troyes really " doing draws" (just 2 and 1 respectively this season) it is easy to see goals in this for Troyes, who, with the quality in their squad should also be favoured by the quick turnaround, and a home win.
Troyes : Diouf, Samassa - Cordoval, Giraudon, Obiang, Poaty, Salmier, Tavares - Ben Saada, Kashi, Martins Pereira, Nivet, Pelé, Raveloson - Fortuné, Mbeumo, Tinhan, Touzghar.
Orléans : Gallon, Renault - Cambon, Lecoeuche, Mutombo, Pinaud, Furtado - D\\\'Arpino, Avounou, Bouby, Demoncy, Ephestion, Lopy - Cissokho, Laurienté, Le Tallec, Perrin, Tell.
1.75 units Metz -1.5 ball 2.27 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.75 units Troyes -0.75 ball 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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