Guess who's back, back again ......................The Real Slim Brady !
Feb 06, 2021
Super Bowl LV : Kansas City Chiefs- Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Raymond James Stadium, Tampa.
The more observant amongst you will already have noticed that this is being played in Tampa, making the Buccaneers the first team in history to play a Super Bowl in their own stadium.
The Raymond James arena was not exactly a fortress for the Bucs, who were 5-3 here in regular season play, which included a 27-24 loss to the Chiefs in Week 12. KC and quarterback Patrick Mahomes came flying out of the blocks that day , led 17-0 after the first quarter, 20-7 at half time and 27-10 after three quarters and it felt a very comfortable win for much of the game, despite the close final scoreline. KC were 26-20 for first downs and had a 543-417 yardage advantage and almost 37 minutes of possession ( which is huge) despite being unable to run the ball , running backs Edwards-Helaire and Le'Veon Bell combining for just 59 yards on 16 carries. It is unusual to have that much possession and so little ground yardage and I must admit that is a bit of a concern for me, by which I mean that so much went right for the Chiefs and yet they still might have lost that game late, needing a run from Mahomes to complete a first down and then a pass from the superstar quarterback who has it all, including the biggest contract in sport, at least until the recent Lionel Messi revelations, to earn another and book the win.
Talking of superstar quarterbacks, 43 year old Tom Brady will be taking part in his 10th (!) Super Bowl, 19 years after his first and looking for a 7th win, his first as a Buc and he has set winning records that will never be beaten. Ok, "never" is a big word, but how many players are going to play 20 seasons in the NFL , let alone never posting a losing year ! As far as the Super Bowl records are concerned, I guess Mahomes could have his eyes on 6-7 rings if he takes #2 this week at age 25, especially as he knows a franchise is being built around him and his monster $503m contract, to last a decade or more, but he will need to play close to double that to have a shot and also for the Chiefs to dominate football like the Patriots did and I am not sure that is possible playing in a tougher , more competitive division, but that conversation is really for another day. Many (most ?) football watchers agree that Brady is the GOAT and probably also accept that Mahomes is the only modern day QB who might sometime challenge that thinking. That gives an extra edge to this game and makes for the perfect Super Bowl.
Brady has reinvented himself as a deep throwing quarterback this season and that is what I find most amazing about his move to Tampa. In their first postseason win, 31-23 at Washington, he threw for 381 yards, his average of 9.53 yards per pass attempt being the most of all quarterbacks in action that week and providing further evidence of what we already knew, that the Bucs and Brady are a long downfield passing team. This is not what TB was for two decades in New England and for a 43yo to come in and adapt, rather than the team play to his perceived and multiple strengths, is incredible. He put up a passer rating of 104.3 which is decent, but he was 128.9 on passes which travelled 10 yards or more through the air, his two TD passes were for 27 and 36 yards.
They then won in New Orleans, who, like Washington, are an elite (top 5) passing defense and the Saints had also handed two heavy regular season beatings to the Bucs and Tampa are clearly improving, especially defensively, more of which later. Turning the series against the Saints around should give the Bucs confidence that they can do so against the Chiefs, especially as they won the final quarter 14-0 in Week 12 and were close to another stop late in the game. Also, Tampa were in their worst form of the season for that first meeting, they were having an awful November, struggled past the Giants and three of their five losses came that month and it was all prior to what was a very late bye week for them. Their break came in Week 13, only the Panthers also had their own week off after Week 11 and they lost 6 of 7 games in build up to it, it is too late and should be changed. After that chance to regroup, the Bucs have gone 7-0 and put up 30+ points in each of the last six, they restricted the #1 and #4 scoring teams in the NFL to an average 23 points on the road in the postseason, when conditions heavily favoured both opponents.
The Bucs defense bailed them out in the Championship game in Green Bay, a contest they were absolutely coasting until Tom Brady, who had looked imperious up to that point, went "walkabout", throwing three interceptions in as many drives, one on the Packers 32 yard line and another on their 28, so great scoring opportunities for Tampa. It was most un-Brady like if we are talking over his career, you do not win everything in sight by turning the ball over too often in big games, especially in scoring situations, but it has happened increasingly regularly and I guess it goes with the territory of throwing deeper and he seems increasingly willing to throw into double/treble coverage.
Brady has thrown 2 or more interceptions in 20 regular season games, roughly once per year, but has done so four times this season , add in last week and it is an issue ! He has definitely been throwing the ball high at times, but he usually bounces back from adversity and it is easy to focus on that and skip how well he played in the first half in the Championship game. Three of the games in which he threw 2+ interceptions this season came during that tough November schedule and I think tiredness might have played a part, he is 43 yo for goodness sake and as fit as he is, it is a game where not many play even into their 30's and maybe we are talking mentally, as opposed to physically, in any case. In Green Bay they were playing for the third playoff week in a row, all on the road, which is super tough and demanding and not what Brady is used to, the Pats were almost always a high seed with bye weeks and home games and this was very different. Two weeks off and back on home ground and sleeping in his own bed should see him right and I am expecting a largely error free day on Sunday.
The Bucs outstanding defense ranked #6 for the regular season (#1 versus the run) has stepped up a couple of levels in the postseason and was exceptional facing two free scoring elite offenses and especially on clutch plays, they bailed out Brady in the Championship game and gave him time to just steady himself and get back on track. You cannot run against the Bucs and the Chiefs were unable to do so in Week 12 and it will make KC largely one dimensional and as good as they are at that passing game, that is never a good thing in the NFL where you need a balanced game plan and additionally, the Bucs are the one team in the NFL with the armoury to win a shootout with Mahomes and co.
KC are looking to become the first team to repeat since 2004 and really rode their luck at times last season, they trailed by at least 10 points in all three playoff games..... 0-24 (!) to the Texans, 7-17 to the Titans, 10-20 to the Niners in the Super Bowl at the end of the third quarter and they were also 0-9 against the Bills in the Championship game two weeks ago. The Chiefs, with Mahomes at the helm have trailed by at least 9 points in 5/6 post season games, the first of which was versus the Patriots and Brady in 2018 (0-14 half time) and if we consider the TB interceptions a problem, this is no less an issue and I am not sure they can afford to do so against such a strong defensive unit as the Bucs.
I keep thinking about that earlier meeting, nothing went right for the Bucs, they were weary, Brady threw two picks, they could not get star receiver Mike Evans into that game until late, gave up a sackful of yards and possession but still they got it close , might even have won. They look a better team now, more in sync and on both sides of the ball and will have enjoyed the two week break.
The Chiefs offensive line has played well enough but been cobbled together, they lost two starters to COVID with the players opting out of the campaign, then Kelechi Osemele and Mitchell Schwartz suffered season ending injuries . Finally, left tackle Eric Fisher, who protects the blindside for Mahomes, was injured in the AFC Championship game and is out of the Super Bowl , with only center Austin Reiter remaining from Week 1. In that previous h2h meeting which I keep coming back to, the Bucs got 16 quarterback pressures and Mahomes was forced into releasing the ball quickly which he is as good as any at doing, but the loss of Fisher hardly helps and actually feels like a potential game changer. Last season the Chiefs were 11-0 when Fisher played, 4-4 in his absence and 2-4 within that versus winning teams. When Mahomes is pressured he has a passer rating of just 78.7 a 40 point drop off from his career rating of 108.7.
I see this as a coin flip (50/50) so it has to be .................
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.46 Money Line/Sportmarket Pro/ Vegas Line/Pinnacle.
Good luck !
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