Strasbourg have a + 76 ITB differential over Toulouse for the season .

 

XP suggests the gap between these two is 9 points closer that the actual league table.

 

However, Toulouse are in freefall and have gone 0-1-11 through 12 starts since their last win in mid October, scoring just 0.83 goals pg and conceding 2.58 through that sequence and that makes it hard to win ! Runs like this are incredibly difficult to get out of, you need luck when none is forthcoming and confidence is shot, so falling behind, immediately becomes a huge mountain to climb. It has now got to the stage where it feels like a season in the second tier might actually benefit them, Toulouse have basically been in a three season relegation battle and won just 20 of 105 starts and have gone from bad to worse this season and need to press the restart button and that might be easier in Ligue 2 and many teams have ultimately  benefited from that.

 

Strasbourg are known as a home team, but have had plenty of road practice through recent months and have played 8 of their last 10 on the road (league and cup) and actually won 5 , scoring 15 goals, a couple of low level opponents in that sequence, but they have also won at Monaco/Bordeaux/Nantes and this is definitely easier than that trio. The visitors are out of all cup competitions now, so can focus on the league and would move top 10 with the win, maybe as high as 8th. They have not recorded a top ten finish since 2000 and that should be a target for the second half of the campaign . They won both 2019 h2h meetings scoring six goals total and creating 4 BC's in each.

 

An "in play" bettors dream stat and a sign of how low confidence level are at Toulouse, they have a 0-10 goal difference at HOME after the 75th minute of games.

 

 

 

 

Montpellier have a +65 ITB differential over Metz for the season.

 

Metz are coming off a big 3-1 defeat of St Etienne at the weekend ahead of which I wrote ..........

 

As you can see from the bottom half of the table above, Metz are just one place above the drop zone, last six seasons have seen them spend three in Ligue 2 and three in the top flight and they are looking to end that yo-yoing and find some stability. They have a four point edge over the bottom three, which is great, but by winning today, not only increase that to seven, but open up the route to midtable and they would only be four points off 9th and takes them out of that "any 3 from 5" situation it would otherwise look like. Dijon and Nimes won yesterday too. Anyway, Metz are in decent form, are unbeaten in four and won their last two recording back to back clean sheets. They have already beaten St Etienne this season, winning the reverse fixture 1-0 and took the last h2h meeting here at Stade Saint-Symphorien 3-0. ASSE are very up and down, 5 wins and 5 defeats in their last ten starts in all competitions and are also 4-0-6 on the road, so very much all or nothing, they had a big midweek cup win away to Monaco (10 hour round trip) and have now had to make the five hour road trip North on a  quick turnaround and when Metz have had a full eight days to prepare solely for this. XP puts these two level, giving Metz a 5 point swing over the actual table.

 

A trip to the capital to play PSG is never easy, but Montpellier made it all the tougher and draining, by playing 75 minutes with 10 men and finishing with nine , so they will be without two suspended players this evening, including goalkeeper Dimitry Bertraud who was dismissed 17 minutes into only his second start of the campaign, but starting keeper Geronimo Rulli will be back this evening, so really only the additional fatigue to consider.

 

Metz have played two less games in 2020 than Montpellier and have won on their last two visits here and by a combined 4-1. MHSC are a strong host, but XP suggests they should have dropped another 4 points at home and with Metz in their form of the season and having avoided defeat in 6 of 11 on the road and odds big, this is firmly in the "possible upset" category.

 

 

 

Lyon have a +111 ITB  ITB differential over Amiens for the season.

 

Just 38 attempts created inside the box for Amiens across their last 10 starts (never more than five in any game) and that is a relegation number and simply not good enough.

 

Amiens have won one game since October 4th, that was away to Brest, the only other team with similarly poor numbers and SB29 dominated all stat categories in that game.

 

OL should win, but odds reflect that and their lacklustre showing at Nice on Sunday is more than enough to put me off a bet.

 

Lyon have a 14-6 home goal difference, within that they are 9-0 (!) in the first half, 5-6 after the break.

 

 

 

Nimes have a +9 ITB differential over Dijon for the season, despite the visitor being six points better off, XP suggests that gap should just be three points.

 

The home side also have a +14 ITB advantage for the last three games, through which they have created a Ligue 1 joint second best 31 and conceded the 4th fewest, with only PSG posting better net numbers, ok, we do have to say that they played nine men for some considerable time against Monaco at the weekend, but they had only conceded 14 attempts total ITB in the three games prior to that and played two top 7 teams in that sequence. It does look like Nimes have turned a corner and given themselves at least a chance to preserve that very hard earned top flight status.

 

Dijon are playing pretty well now, but do have a five point buffer over the drop zone and are MUCH happier on home soil where they collected 19 of 24 points with only one away win this season and only two since September 2018, since when they are 2-5-21 ! That is a 75% loss rate and whilst they might take comfort from a 5-0 cup win over Nimes just 17 days ago, it was in Dijon and it was very clear and rightly so where Nimes priorities lay ahead of that.

 

The home side have bossed this series in recent years in league games and are unbeaten in the last 7, keeping four clean sheets and scoring 15 goals.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bordeaux have a +42 ITB differential over Brest for the season.

 

XGF puts Bordeaux at 20.76 as opposed to the 30 goals they have actually scored, which suggests they have overperformed to the tune of circa 45% and that can only continue for so long and as they have scored just twice in five starts, maybe that levelling off has already begun.

 

Brest numbers have been pretty poor all season, but that only further highlights the fact that they have a plus ITB for each of their last three starts and have created 10+ for three of their last four and are very tough to beat as host (5-5-1).

 

 

 

 

Reims have a +70 ITB differential over Nice for the season, despite the two being separated by just goal difference .

 

Reims have had an extra 24 hours recovery time and this is a long trip North for a midweek game on short turnaround.

 

Hosts have not conceded a home goal after the 60th minute , Nice have lost 6 on the road and trailed at half time in five of those, Reims have really struggled to win at home and have done so just 3 times, but have led at the break in the last two of those.

 

 

 

OM have a +60 ITB differential over St Etienne for the season. But XP puts the gap between these two at 9 and not 15 points.

 

A lot of travelling for St Etienne over the last week or so ( see Metz notes above) , but they do not play at home again for 17 days and I expect them to be up for this and they had pretty good numbers in the Sunday game and a very solid h2h record when hosting Marseille, losing just 1 in 10, albeit with a LOT of draws (7). OM look booked for top 3 and all numbers suggests that is fair, but their goals have dried up a little and they have not scored in almost 200 minutes of football and only creating an average of  5.33 pg ITB attempts through their last three, a big fall off from 12.0 pg from their previous six.

 

OM have conceded 75% of away goals in the first half.

 

 

Good Luck.