Italian football...............inside the box !

Mar 08, 2020

Inside the Box explained:

If you come across any clubgowi previews you are likely to see ITB stats quoted................

Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net . ITB numbers tell you which teams are creating these "quality" chances , who is giving them up and which teams are improving in both categories.

I think the real value of ITB might be once the numbers start to turn, that improvement in performance may not always be reflected immediately in results, so we will have an edge "knowing" when teams are starting to sort out those issues OR falling into bad habits, which is just as valuable. I like expected goals/points numbers too, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But in actual fact I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

ITB stats are exclusive to clubgowi , they are currently being produced for seven leagues and improved upon week on week and are already a "must have" betting aid/tool.

Serie A:

Through 26 rounds, although this is where it gets complicated, teams marked * have played 25 and those with ** just 24.

ITB:

Lazio +92 (64-51)

*Juventus +95 (62-34)

**Internazionale +81 (59-48)

*Atalanta +192 (91-34)

Roma +86 (77-46)

Napoli +96 (62-38)

*Milan +49 (63-48)

**Verona -24 (55-47)

**Parma -102 (40-68)

Bologna +34 (68-41)

*Cagliari -100 (49-63)

*Fiorentina +47 (42-49)

**Sassuolo -60 (49-59)

*Udinese -42 (58-62)

*Torino -88 (40-63)

Lecce -129 (40-84)

**Sampdoria +11 (65-44)

*Genoa -54 (36-58)

*Brescia -130 (32-87)

*SPAL -54 (50-71)

Numbers directly alongside each team are net ITB numbers for the season, those in parentheses are attempts ITB created-conceded for the last six games .

ITB current form :

Top 6 for last six games.........

Atlanta +57

Roma + 31

Juventus +28

Bologna +27

Napoli +24

Sampdoria +21

Bottom 4 for last six games...........

Torino -23

Parma -28

Lecce -44

Brescia -55

XP table:

Atalanta 53 points

Roma 49

Lazio 48

Juventus 47

Inter 46

Napoli 45

Bologna 40

Milan 39

Fiorentina 35

Verona 34

Sampdoria 33

Genoa 31

Sassuolo 29

Udinese 27

Parma 27

Cagliari 25

Brescia 23

Torino 22

SPAL 22

Lecce 20

I do not know how much football we will see in Italy over the next month or so, I suspect very little, but that doesn't make the numbers above of any less interest, or of use once football does restart. Parma ,Cagliari and Torino continue to post awful (bottom 5) numbers, just as they have all season long, it has finally started to catch up results wise with the last two and it can only be a matter of time before Parma follow suit. We have been expecting improvement from Napoli, Milan, Fiorentina and Bologna and all largely have upped their game recently. Sampdoria have stand out numbers amongst the bottom 8, a +140 ITB differential on the team immediately above them (Lecce) in the table and their last six game totals are super impressive, creating the 4th highest and conceding the 5th fewest, they, along with Bologna should be on our "to watch" list. XP gives Bologna an additional 6 points and Samp 10 more.

Atalanta had an awful run around November when they gave up 10 points to the other top five , but have been head and shoulders (and torso) above the rest of Serie A apart from that, +192 for the season is incredible, +57 for the last six games , equates to 237.5 for 25 games, so they are improving not going backwards, add in that 4-1 Champions League knockout stage win over Valencia and it is a hugely impressive campaign from them.

These numbers have held up incredibly well in Serie A this season, especially in fixtures where "good" ITB teams have faced "bad" ones and you should not be betting any games in Italy, and they will be coming thick and fast at some stage, without at least checking out the above stats.

Good Luck !