Further to those J-League stats I posted earlier today ( see previous article), you can read my full notes for this morning's games below.
Yokohama won 3-0, Kobe drew 2-2 after leading early, Gamba won 3-1 (got the score right there !).
Next newsletter will be sent @ 11.00 UK time on Saturday.
Ahead of the penultimate week in Stage 1 ( W16) I wrote ............
Where have all the home wins gone !
We are one match short of 15 rounds played in JL1 and home wins are running at 34.33% (away wins 39.55%) , this is an ongoing trend, 2013 saw 46.41% of games end in a home win. 40.85 % through 2014 and 38.56% last season. It has to stop somewhere and definitely feels way below where it should be currently and surely we will see an upturn in the coming months. Goals are correspondingly down too, which I suppose is to be expected, they have averaged 2.69 over the last three seasons and we are more than a quarter goal down on that at 2.42. We often look at these numbers and big dips and increases usually even out, at least a little, over the full campaign and we should expect an increase in both.
Since then there have been 28 JL-1 matches played and they have seen 14 (50%) end in home wins and goals average 2.89 per game and it highlights that you can find good starting positions by looking at stats like these on a regular basis. Numbers in terms of home/draw/away wins and goals tend to be remarkably similar year in, year out in certain leagues and "blips" are usually that, a temporary deviation and numbers often still end up where they should be, or close to it.
Yokohama F. Marinos- Avispa Fukuoka
The visitors made my notes last week ..............
Avispa are bottom of the table and are the latest in many who have struggled with life in J-League after promotion and it is a big step up for some. They have already lost ten times ,only scored 11 goals and have been in the bottom two since Matchday 3 and look likely to stay there, already being six points from safety. They are 0-1-6 against top 7 teams, conceding two or more goals in six of those and will have to up their game to win today.
They lost 2-1 at home to Urawa Reds who trailed and scored both goals whilst down to ten men following an early dismissal and that doesn't augur well for Avispa.
I previewed Yokohama the previous week when they entertained FC Tokyo .............
Marinos are very hit and miss and you could almost toss a coin to see if they are likely to have a going day, but 6 of their last 10 home starts have gone "over" and they have won 3 /4 h2h meetings with FCT here in Yokohama and given the tiredness issues for the visitors , their tough midweek game and that training has been conducted in very warm, stifling conditions in the capital recently, I think that we will see one , or hopefully, both trends continuing. They have close to a full strength squad and have to be the fresher of these two.
That was an incredibly frustrating game, Yokohama dominated and missed chance, after chance and lost 1-0, visiting boss Hiroshi Jofuku admitted his team were fortunate ..........."We were in more difficult positions today than in any of the recent games. "In those games we weren't in so much trouble yet only managed to take a single point from them." It feels a little odd somehow to have taken maximum points from a game like this. "We're not satisfied and know we disappointed our fans and supporters. "It's great to have won today. " We saw our goalkeeper save us repeatedly."
The home head coach was very frustrated and mirrored those comments, but his team bounced back to win 3-0 at Shonan Bellmare last week and they look and are, a far stronger team than an 11th Stage 1 finish indicates, five of their first six fixtures in Stage 2 are very win-able and now that they already have three points on board, we can expect them to really look to press on in the next couple of weeks. They owe home fans a win too and this is as good a chance as you are going to get in J-League. Central defender Mizuki Hamada is suspended and Avispa have conceded two or more goals in 6 of the last 7 starts he has sat out.
1.5 units Yokohama F.Marinos -1 ball 2.08 asian line/ Sportmarket Pro.
Vissel Kobe- Sagan Tosu
If FC Tokyo rode a lot of luck to win in Yokohama ( see above preview), they were equally unfortunate to lose away to Sagan Tosu last week, conceding twice in injury time to fall to a 3-2 defeat ! Tosu had similar good fortune to turn around their previous home game ( v Gamba Osaka) with a pair of quick second half goals and whilst that says quite a bit about their battling qualities, they cannot continually put themselves in such poor positions and dig themselves out of holes. They have fallen behind in their last three starts and opponents Kobe are good with a lead and only league leaders Frontale and defending champions Sanfrecce have scored more first half goals.
I discussed Kobe's offensive potential recently , expounding upon notes I had written last season and both are reproduced below the good luck sign off, they beat Nagoya 4-0 by the way.
They started Stage 2 with a 3-0 road win at Ventforet Kofu last weekend and look set for a good second half of the season, now that their lengthy injury list is starting to shorten and they have found their form in front of goal. Kobe won this fixture 7-1 last season and whilst I am not expecting anything along the same lines, they have averaged over 2.08 goals per game in their last 24 home starts and look big to post a second win to start Stage 2.
1.5 units Vissel Kobe -0.25 ball 1.98 asian line/Sportmarket.
Gamba Osaka- Vegalta Sendai
Last week Gamba went to Stage 1 winners Kashima Antlers and posted a fine 3-1 win, ahead of which I wrote ..........
The pressure is off Antlers somewhat now that they have won Stage 1, but they would still like to clinch the overall title and make things so much easier for themselves come the Championship series.
Gamba came into the season with very high hopes , but have not been able to build up any real momentum and we have only seen glimpses of their talent and potential. Notes on last week's home game with Nagoya are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off.
They drew that 3-3, blowing a late lead and conceded three goals on home soil for the second time in three home games and both of those games came against bottom five teams. Takashi Usami (see below) has now left too and I guess we have to say they are a team in transition, but they retain the ability to score freely and the clear seven days to rest and prepare for this game will have served them well, but defensively they do look suspect.
Last seven meetings between these two in Kashima City have gone "over" and I expect that trend to continue.
You can see from that and the notes below that they are not really to be trusted defensively at present, but they remain one of the classier teams in J-League and when things click into gear, they can be close to unplayable. Gamba have struggled in their new home all season and traditionally here in Osaka against Vegalta, but have won the last two h2h meetings, both in Sendai, 3-1. The visitors have conceded six goals in their last two starts without reply and will probably need to score at least twice here to get anything out of this game.
Gamba were close to adding a 4th and/or 5th goal last week and surely this time will get that much needed home win, similar staking policy as for the Nagoya game, but this time I expect to collect on both, Gamba to win 3-1/4-1 !
1.5 units Gamba Osaka -0.75 ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket.
0.75 units "over" 3.5 goals 3.0-3.10 general quote.
Good Luck.
Gamba Osaka- Nagoya Grampus (written June 24th)
Last week I backed
Gamba for the trip to Sagan Tosu ............
Ahead of Gamba's home game with Shonan Bellmare last week I wrote ...........
Stage 1 in terms of the title is lost for Gamba Osaka who might still be the best team in Japan, but they will want to get as close to the top 3 as possible to give them a AFC Champions League fall back for a big Stage 2 title push. I have spoken about their quality many times and ahead of their last home game, a visit from Jubilo Iwata I wrote .............
It is two months since Gamba won on home soil, actually that was their sole win in their brand new Suita Stadium and they have won just once in the last month. Not only have they been eliminated from the AFC Champions League, whilst FC Tokyo and Urawa Reds have progressed, but they have lost their way in Stage 1 and in terms of winning a domestic title, we are talking about the two cups and Stage 2 (which doesn't start until July). However, they do have to find some form in the interim and stay in contention in the overall table ( Stage 1 and 2 combined) which will decide additional CL spots for next season. It has not helped matters that their biggest rival Urawa have not only handled playing in the international competition , but sit atop of Stage 1 with an 8-1-1 record and Gamba supporters are not happy and this combined with the need to fill the new arena, has put a lot of pressure on the "best team in Japan". They are enjoying a lot of possession as you would expect of a passing team so comfortable on the ball, but they have struggled in the final third and not made the most of their many chances.
They play Sanfrecce, Urawa and FCT in three of their next four starts and to go into that very difficult run of games without turning things around today is going to make life very difficult for them . Head coach Kenta Hasegawa said this week he knows his side cannot wait forever to kick-start its challenge:“We have a lot of quality players, but until someone can come up with the goods, it’s difficult.“When you’re scoring goals freely they keep coming, but when you can’t score it’s not easy. You can’t just force it. Today (Albirex Niigata) we created a lot of chances in the first half but all we could do was keep trying and trying until one went in.” Hasegawa has struggled to find his best formation this season and now that the focus is only J-League, he has to get back to a settled team and he should be further helped in that regard by having had a full and free midweek to prepare for today. On paper his squad is stronger than last season, something we spoke about on opening day .........
Gamba completed the domestic treble in 2014 and went close to defending all three last season, eventually having to just settle for the Emperor's Cup, I have made no secret of the high esteem I hold them in and they have not only managed to hold on to all their stars Yasuhito Endo, Yasuyuki Konno, Patric and especially Takashi Usami, whom I expected to be back in Europe , amongst others, but have added to their depth with the signings of Ademilson and Jungo Fujimoto, they are planning a big season, have already played two competitive fixtures and will be hugely motivated to win their first J-League game in their brand new 40,000 capacity Suita Stadium . Gamba have been VERY bullish about their prospects for this season, they "expect" to be strong enough and have sufficient depth to go at least as far as last season in four competitions, they are the best team in Japan in my book and I do not expect anyone to doubt that come the end of the year.
That optimism seems a little misguided presently, but in their spectacular 2014, they actually had four points fewer at this stage and they know what they are capable of once their find their form, they are one convincing win away from refinding their self belief, it is hard to see them edging home against anyone right now, the goals are either going to come or not and if they win today, I expect to be comfortably or not at all. Jubilo are short handed offensively, we have spoken a lot about how important Jay Bothroyd is and his injury along with limited options meant that they played without a striker last week, their limitation were cruelly exposed by Vissel Kobe in their last away start, where they conceded four and Gamba could have similar joy.
They won that 2-1, a narrow win, but one of promise and at times they looked like the old Gamba, their equalising goal was a thing of great beauty and they then went to Hiroshima and blew Sanfrecce away 3-1 and it felt like "game on", but a 1-0 loss at FC Tokyo last time out, where Gamba held all the advantages going in, felt like one step forward, one back. That was a game of few chances, but Gamba had two big opportunities to take an early lead and from two of the three players you would have wanted them to fall to in Patric and Endo, with the third , the oft discussed Takashi Usami laying the first on a plate. It would have been a different story if one of those had gone in and it is good news that the trio were all involved, they have a terrible record in the capital against FCT and maybe we can chalk it down to that. The hosts will be looking for a comfortable win today, with big rival Urawa Reds arriving here in midweek in a match would could have a significant bearing on top 3 come the end of November.
Shonan Bellmare have collected 8 of their 11 points on the road, but there is a big gulf in class today and the visitors will have to deal with the absence of suspended left sided midfielder Daisuke Kikuchi , he is an ever present both this season and last is very much the first name on the team sheet. In their JL2 promotion season of 2014, he played 45 minutes or less in nine games and Shonan were 3-4-2, as opposed to 28-4-1 when he saw out a half or more. With Gamba so stong in midfield this is a big loss and Ademilson (see above) could have a field day on that flank.
They trailed, scored twice to lead 2-1, again conceded, retook the lead 3-2, only to concede a third to a goal shy visitor ! It kind of goes without saying that they hosted one of the better teams in Japan in midweek and kept a clean sheet (!) beating Urawa Reds 1-0 . They have scored nine in their last five starts (it has taken Sagan 17 games to score nine goals) and if they do not have another defensive meltdown, they should win this comfortably.
I have spoken often about the quality that Takashi Usami poses and my amazement that he hasn't been given another chance in Europe and now he looks on his way to the Bundesliga , most probably Augsburg, at the completion of Stage 1. He scored the third goal against Shonan and the winner versus Urawa and we can expect him to really want to say goodbye with a flourish and more of the same in his final two games for Gamba. He scored twice in the last meeting between these two, a 3-1 Emperor's Cup semi-final win at the very end of last year, the prolific Usami is very streaky and has scored in at least a third game in his next full start on the four previous occasions he has scored in back to back games for Gamba.
I spoke about Takashi Usami there ( see highlighted paragraph) he gave Gamba the lead, before the game turned on it's head with two Sagan goals inside one second half minute. The hosts will be hugely motivated to win today, Usami's move to Augsburg has been confirmed and this is a special occasion, you have to understand a little about Japanese culture to comprehend quite how much. There will be a post match ceremony to say goodbye and it will be treated seriously and Usami would like nothing better than another goal or two and three points. He was born just 40 km from Osaka, has been with Gamba since he was 12 yo ( his Bundesliga loan spells aside) and will probably return here one day, but for now, this is a big deal.
Nagoya have conceded a JL1 high 19 second half goals , giving up an average 1.43 on the road after the break, which is when Gamba traditionally tend to come on strong, when they have worn teams down with their high possession football. We have not seen so much of that this year, but I expect a big push from them in Stage 2 even without Usami, especially once they have fully recovered from their AFC Champions League exertions and a free midweek and 7 days to prepare for this, which has been a novelty in 2016, will have helped.
Goals seem likely , the last ten h2h meetings have produced 38, with nine "overs" and 7 of the last 9 producing at least four and I expect more of the same and when the dust has settled, a home win and at least one goal for Usami.
1.5 units Gamba Osaka -1 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.
0.5 units "over" 4.5 goals 4.50-5.50, if you can find the upper end, maybe a little more.
Japan Nabisco Cup: Vissel Kobe-Nagoya Grampus (written May 25th)
I spoke about
Vissel Kobe ahead of a recent home game, highlighting how they were a team in transition, one with great goalscoring potential, but still a work in progress and I also linked to some early campaign notes from last season, where I first touched upon them as a team to watch out for .......
Host (Kobe) are a team with far more potential and I spoke about this in great detail last season, actually ahead of a Nabisco cup game with Vegalta, see foot of this email. They never quite made the really big breakthrough and they probably will not, but it is about steadily building and they showed in glimpses last season what they were capable of when things clicked ( beating Sagan 7-1 and reaching the last 8 of the Emperor's Cup, where they lost to Urawa and the last 4 of the League Cup where they were knocked out by the eventual winners Kashima Antlers). That actually makes quite impressive reading, they are clearly on the upgrade, did good business in the off season and have already put six past Albirex Niigata and pose a huge offensive threat when everything clicks.
They are still hit and miss, but put four past Jubilo Iwata earlier this month and then won 1-0 at Nagoya, however they have been" hit" in this competition for the last two seasons, went deep last year and can all but qualify for the knockout stages today. Grampus are already out and their attention will surely be on their trip to Shonan on Sunday, where they need to address their league form. I spoke at the weekend about how they were starting games on the front foot, but not seeing them out .........
Oddly, Nagoya, who are struggling in lower midtable have the best first half record in JL1 (5-5-1), collecting 20 points before the break, but winning just one second 45 minute period. They have not kept a clean sheet in ten starts and have conceded two or more goals in 5 of 9.
They again led, twice actually, but lost 3-2 at home to Kashima Antlers and it is hard to see them being as up for this as Kobe, or ending the match as strongly.
Ventforet Kofu- Shonan Bellmare
Same story here, Kofu are out of League Cup contention, Shonan can still force their way into the top two of their group, but probably need at least four points and maybe all six from their remaining two fixtures. They have already won both road games in this competition ( Kashima and Nagoya) and have taken ALL their league points away from home and are clearly playing with greater freedom and less pressure away from Kanagawa.
Kofu are really struggling defensively, they have conceded two or more goals in their last six starts ( have not won in nine) and only one of those six teams will be expected to finish in the top 6 in J-League.
1.5 units Vissel Kobe -0.75 ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.5 units Shonan Bellmare -0.25 ball 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
Yamazaki Nabisco Cup: Vegalta Sendai- Vissel Kobe (Written April 2015)
We have not previously previewed the early round cup games in Japan and I have no real intention of doing so this year on a regular basis , but I wanted to discuss one team in particular with a view to the future and feel they are too big today in any case, so we can kill two birds with one stone ! Regardless of their result this "morning" and this is an early kick off , this is a team we will be following for several weeks, at least all the while they are offering value, or until my thinking is proved wrong, but I do not feel that will be the case !
Last weekend in my preview of the FC Tokyo-Ventforet Kofu game I touched upon FCT's prevoius match, a 2-0 win at
Vissel Kobe.......
Kobe were better than I thought last week and they are a team we will be returning to over the next week or two, as I saw something very interesting in their play. I did look at them today, but the fixture , away to Sanfrecce Hiroshima, was not quite what I was looking for. anyway, I feel that three points and a cleansheet there might look even better in a couple of week than it even does currently.
Kobe won 1-0 , Sanfrecce were unbeaten before that, had not conceded in two previous home games and were many peoples idea of a potential champion this season, the formline is solid and I am still a little angry with myself that I did not take a little something on Kobe at big odds in Hiroshima.
I had already spoken about them as a team to watch on opening day ............
Reysol would have made the betting criteria, but again, are playing the worst possible team , with their coach from the last five years Nelsinho, who has had more clubs than Tiger Woods ( this is his 31st managerial appointment !), joining opponents Vissel Kobe, he knows more about the visitors than any man alive and will surely have a game plan and some tricks up his sleeve. He is very agressive, you might remember I spoke last season about how Gamba complaiined that the coach, his staff and players were intimidating match officials, he is probably just what Kobe need, they are looking to break into the big time and showed potential last season, top 3 after a third of the season, before fading away at the end. Nelsinho has strengthened adding options to an already good strike force, but making the defence which gave up almost 1.5 goals per game his priority. Odd one, if Reysol were playing any other bottom half team, aside from Nagoya, I would probably have backed them and likewise, I would have sided with Kobe if they were meeting any team without the fitness edge. Interesting game, but one I will have to pass.
They lost that 1-0, but were at a disadvantage in terms of match fitness, as I mentioned. Their next home game was the visit from FCT and I was very impressed, this was the first time I had really seen them in 2015, they had clearly worked incredibly hard through the off season for Nelsinho, they were very dynamic and energetic. Michihiro Yasuda ( very solid for a Sagan Tosu team who gave up so few goals last season) and Shohei Takahashi ( hugely impressive in a poor Omiya Ardija side) had started to gel and gave them a far more solid look at the back, they also strengthened in midfield and attack and were playing to their strengths with Ryota Morioka given a lot of freedom, playing just behind the front three in a fluid 3-4-3 (although it was hard to be 100% sure about the formation, given their movement) , but in the win in Hiroshima, it was definitely 3-4-3. A couple of players who had impressed against FCT were on the bench last time out ( Pedro Junior and Ferrugem) and they clearly have good options all over the pitch now.
It might be that they are ideally suited to playing away from home, as they have a lot of pace and were very quick to turn defence into attack, they caused Tokyo all kinds of problem and before going behind, they had already hit the woodwork and after conceding, missed a penalty. They did not let that overly affect them and they were moving and passing the ball as well as any team (Gamba aside) I have seen in J-League for some time and I cannot recall the last time I was so impressed with a team who had lost 2-0 at home ! Tokyo, who I know are a good team were pinned back and could hardly leave their own third for the opening 20 minutes of the second half, before they scored with almost their first real opportunity after the break and it was game over.
F.C.Tokyo boss Massimo Ficcadenti was obviously taken with the hosts and said:"I think that first of all we should recognize the quality of this Kobe team." His counterpart Nelsinho saw the game thus: "We were able to play the systematic game we had prepared for in the first half and prevented the opposition from playing to their strengths. They didn't create anything dangerous from open play. We just lost our positioning at a set play and that mistake cost us a goal. We got our rhythm back, threatened their goal and created chances. We won and then wasted a penalty. Anyway, at half time I told the players the only thing lacking was finishing. I told them I wasn't going to change anything and sent them out for the second half. Our defender Bueno was injured in the second half and had to come off; he'd been playing well and I think that had an impact on the team. Nevertheless we moved the ball around as we had in the first half and maintained our rhythm; we conceded a second goal from another mistake and that was decisive".
At Sanfrecce Hiroshima, they again played at a very high tempo, especially at the start of both halves when they forced the home side very deep and a moment of real quality from Pedro Junior (who had come off the bench) on the break, set up the winner.
In between the two games, they had beaten Montedio Yamagata 3-1 in this competition, they treated the Nabisco Cup with respect last year and made it through to the last eight, where they lost over two legs to treble winning Gamba Osaka, en route they had beaten Vegalta Sendai who prioritised what was always going to be a long battle against relegation and even though they have started solidly this year in the league, their schedule has been "easy" and I feel it will be more of the same this time round. All teams rotate heavily in the league cup, but Nelsinho will want to keep the winning mentality and momentum up, competition for starting places is starting to get a little fierce and they look to have more quality alternatives than Sendai.
