League 1 betting tip: Accrington Stanley- Sunderland AFC
Apr 03, 2019
League 1: Accrington Stanley- Sunderland AFC
Six weeks ago I previewed Accington- Oxford United, with much of those notes focussing on Stanley's trip to Sunderland in this reverse fixture, which was played just a few days earlier ............
We discussed Stanley on Friday night and picked them out as better than their current run indicated and a potential improvers, but hoped it would be after their trip to the SOL ...........
I was big on Stanley last season and early this, but they have lost their way and luckily I was quick to "dump" them, after starting 7-5-2 with an 18-13 GD, they are 2-4-9 subsequently, scoring 9 in 15, conceding at the rate of 1.67 per game. I have a lot of time for them as a team and head coach John Coleman, but he has been showing his "grumpy old man" side a bit too often recently and bemoaning match officials and the chances he feels his team have not been taking. Oddsmakers seem to agree and Stanley have been overrated for trips to Bradford and Scunthorpe already in 2019 where we opposed them and they lost both by a combined 5-0. They did have plenty of chances in the latter and sooner or later they will turn things around and we have to be waiting for that. In the meantime, they are better offensively than we have seen, but are opposable right now.
Sunderland need to get back on track, they are unbeaten in 9, but six of those were draws (all 1-1) and they are now 4th, 4 points off an automatic spot, albeit with a game in hand, but no one will finish top 2 by drawing every game and time to put that right. They have conceded in 11/15 home games, with most teams raising their game in front of a big crowd at the Stadium of Light. 40% of their games here have finished 1-1 and a bet I really like is Sunderland to win and BTS with "cover" on that scoreline. Sunderland remain unbeaten here and are probably one of the top 2-3 teams in L1, my numbers suggest top 2.
Sunderland should have won after pulling it back from 0-2 to level with plenty of time remaining and they had more than enough chances to do so, but it finished 2-2 and Stanley will be pleased with that and have something to build on now. If they can beat United, they will have fully stopped the rot and be pretty much safe from any real relegation concerns and can enjoy the rest of this season (L1 is a massive step up from where Stanley have come from) and with games in hand could even look again at a top ten finish. Oxford are in poor shape and the mood amongst supporters poor, we spoke about this early season and after a brief revival they have slipped back into old and bad habits. My daughter lives in Oxford and goes sometimes (when Brentford are away) and said the mood has been a bit toxic at the Kassam in recent starts. They have won just 11 /47 starts which is relegation form and then some and they are not bottom four by accident, they do draw a lot of away games ( 10 this season) but have yet to win on the road this campaign and only once in 54 weeks . I am not sure the quick turnaround is in their favour either, they have won just once away in 11 starts on a Tuesday in the league, losing 7. Stanley have won 6/7 at home in the league on Tuesday and have had a day longer to prepare for this, which means an extra full session on the training pitch is available if they decide to use it and that is a big edge. Home win.
Stanley won that 4-2 and Oxford have run into great form subsequently, conceding just three goals in seven starts, which highlights what Accrington are capable of when things click. However, they have won just once in 7 starts since and are in trouble, only two points above the drop zone, albeit with two games in hand on many teams around them in the table. Sunderland are a massive, massive club and sold out Wembley on Sunday, when they lost the Checkatrade Trophy final to Portsmouth on penalties, after extra time, in a game where they led for 44 minutes. A tough way to lose, a long journey home and now a quick turnaround.
Stanley are at home, played a day earlier , also here at the Crown Ground and just 90 minutes. Stanley will have had at least one additional training session to prepare for this, possibly two and it is a big advantage. Also, the renamed "Wham Stadium" is very homely, as far removed from Wembley or Sunderland's SOL as it is possible to be, the Black Cats last two games have been watched by 120,000, attendance tonight will do well to break the 4k barrier ! It will feel very alien to the visitors.
Sunderland are 4th in League 1, a point behind Portsmouth with two games in hand and better goal difference and six behind Barnsley with three GIH. A win would be great, but a point would take them third and still keep automatic promotion in their own hands and this is one occasion where it might not be worthwihile gambling for the extra two points late on, when it almost always usually is. Also, Sunderland are draw specialists, with a 19-16-2 record this season and they have finished all square in 44.18% of their last 43 league starts. This match was actually "played" earlier in the season, back in December and was abandoned around the 70 minute mark with scores tied at 1-1 with the pitch, which had already survived three inspections, waterlogged. The playing surface here has long been criticised and even the Stanley owner described it as "very poor" earlier this week. Again, after playing at Wembley and the SOL this will be in stark contrast to anything Sunderland have played on for many weeks. Stanley look up for this, view it as their game of the season and top scorer Sean McConville said yesterday: “We have played them twice, once abandoned, and I think we were the better side on both occasions. We can take heart from these performances against them.”
A draw would have some benefit for both and is the best value on offer today.
2 units Accrington Stanley- Sunderland draw 3.40-3.50 general quote...........3.44 Pinnacle.
Good Luck.
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