Ligue 1 : 2020-21 season starts this weekend ..............

football betting tips -

 

Last season's numbers seem as good a place to start as any !

Pd = games played.

Pts = points

GD = goal difference

XP=  expected points

XGD = expected goal difference

ITB = inside the box net numbers for the season

L8 = inside the box totals (created-conceded) for the last 8 games.

The first three columns are "real" in terms of points won and goals scored/conceded, but league tables do sometimes "lie" even after 27+ games and the last four columns are more interesting as they show performance levels and who has been over/underachieving in front of goal at both ends of the pitch.

The numbers which are shown in blue type indicate teams who are playing above the level of their current league position, those in red for teams who have outperformed their stats and we would normally expect results for the former to improve and the latter to fall away. Double or treble (or more) blue or red numbers are especially noteworthy.

I will finish with my normal observation that : I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

 

Glossary:
 
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
 
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
 
Good luck !

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