On Wednesday I produced a new statistical format for the last five games which we debuted for Ligue 1 and you got to see those numbers yesterday (scroll down a post or two).

 

I wanted to give you an idea about how we applied those numbers to yesterday.s sole ligue 1 fixture, which Nice won 2-1 ...............

 

Rennes have hit a rough patch and their last five game stats are largely inferior to Nice and the visitors have also played a better quality of opposition in those recent games. A first ever Champions League campaign for them has come at great cost and they can no longer qualify for either of the two main European competitions and I doubt they would want to play in the Europa Conference League which looks the only option and they would , anyway, need to beat off 6-7 rivals to claim a spot which might be a poisoned chalice in terms of the next Ligue 1 season. That is a long winded way of saying it is difficult to see what motivation they have for the final third of the season.

 

Nice have not built on a couple of good seasons and then their takeover by extremely wealthy Jim Ratcliffe and his Ineos group, which we have discussed in detail in the past and they sit just two places and six points outside the bottom three. Their recent numbers are arguably stronger offensively and they have faced better quality opposition, in fact, they have had the second toughest last five game schedule. They played close games with PSG, Marseille and Monaco all on the road and scored in each which augurs well for today, although they did lose all three and beat Angers easily. It is hard to know what to make of them, but surely better than their current league position.

 

Julien Stéphan's Rennes will be without the suspended LB Faitout Maouassa and injured goalkeeper Romain Salin (one win in 15 games without him, 9 wins in 17 when he plays !), but  Martin Terrier , Steven Nzonzi and Damien Da Silva all passed late tests and have made the matchday squad. Nice made the journey north by private jet this morning and have been nursing some injuries themselves for a while but are set to get most back in the next week or two. Rennes are player for player the better team, but are not playing well currently and whilst any outcome today (1X2) would not surprise, I don't think that I can let 5.0 + for Nice pass. We have some good looking positions in France over the weekend and this game might not have made the cut on Saturday or Sunday, but Nice have only lost once in seven visits to Rennes, the stats without Salin (see above) offer encouragement and it is a very big looking quote ............