Ligue 1 .........who's hot, who's not!

football betting tips -
Ligue 1 2022/23
 
2022/23 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1 = Paris SG 15 13 2 0 43 9 +34 41 WWWW 7 6 1 0 19 7 8 7 1 0 24 2
  2 = Lens 15 11 3 1 26 10 +16 36 WWWW 8 8 0 0 18 6 7 3 3 1 8 4
  3 = Rennes 15 9 4 2 31 14 +17 31 WXWW 8 7 0 1 21 6 7 2 4 1 10 8
  4 = Marseille 15 9 3 3 26 13 +13 30 WWXL 8 5 1 2 12 7 7 4 2 1 14 6
  5 +1 Lorient 15 8 4 3 26 21 +5 28 XLLX 7 4 1 2 12 9 8 4 3 1 14 12
  6 -1 Monaco 15 8 3 4 29 21 +8 27 LWWL 8 3 2 3 15 15 7 5 1 1 14 6
  7 = Lille 15 8 2 5 27 23 +4 26 WXLW 8 5 1 2 15 15 7 3 1 3 12 8
  8 = Lyon 15 6 3 6 23 18 +5 21 XLWW 8 5 2 1 16 6 7 1 1 5 7 12
  9 = Nice 15 5 5 5 15 17 -2 20 XWWX 7 2 2 3 6 9 8 3 3 2 9 8
  10 = Clermont 15 5 4 6 19 23 -4 19 LXXL 7 3 1 3 8 13 8 2 3 3 11 10
  11 = Reims 15 3 8 4 16 21 -5 17 XWOW 7 2 3 2 7 10 8 1 5 2 9 11
  12 = Toulouse 15 4 4 7 20 27 -7 16 LLLX 8 3 3 2 13 14 7 1 1 5 7 13
  13 +1 Montpellier 15 4 2 9 24 29 -5 14 XXLL 8 3 1 4 11 13 7 1 1 5 13 16
  14 -1 Troyes 15 3 5 7 26 31 -5 14 LXLX 7 1 5 1 10 11 8 2 0 6 16 20
  15 +1 Nantes 15 2 7 6 17 24 -7 13 XLXX 7 2 4 1 11 9 8 0 3 5 6 15
  16 +3 Brest 15 3 4 8 16 28 -12 13 WLOW 7 1 3 3 5 13 8 2 1 5 11 15
-- 17 -2 Auxerre 15 3 4 8 14 31 -17 13 LXWL 7 2 3 2 7 9 8 1 1 6 7 22
-- 18 -1 AC Ajaccio 15 3 3 9 14 24 -10 12 XWLL 7 1 1 5 6 13 8 2 2 4 8 11
-- 19 -1 Strasbourg 15 1 8 6 17 26 -9 11 XLXX 8 0 5 3 7 13 7 1 3 3 10 13
-- 20 = Angers 15 2 2 11 15 34 -19 8 LLLL 8 1 1 6 9 18 7 1 1 5 6 16
 
XG/ BC/ ITB numbers for the last SIX games. 
 
PSG 11.7 / 6.2, 24-6, 60-44 , 11.3  ........the best team in France, who knew ?
 
Lens 9.3 / 5.9, 15-9, 52-40, 11.2  ...........very solid defensively, only PSG have conceded fewer and that is backed up by the numbers.
 
Rennes 11.0 / 7.124-13, 51-41, 12.7  ........ offensive numbers on a par with PSG, but are giving up a lot of BC's (13 in last five starts).
 
Marseille 9.5 / 6.7, 6-9, 47-46 , 9.0 ...........really strong numbers and if we take out the recent statistical hammering from PSG, they are unbelievably good.
 
Lorient 5.8 / 8.8 , 7-1444-52, 11.5 ........... bottom six numbers , they have created just 1 BC in 5/6 starts and are a net -8 BC's and -14 ITB attempts in their last three and are only keeping a top six spot warm for someone else. - - - -
 
Monaco 8.9 / 7.9, 15-11, 42-52, 11.2 ..........the ASM numbers have been very up (against bottom half opponents) and down ( versus top ten teams)
 
Lille 11.0 / 5.720-956-32, 9.7 ....... really on a high right now and dominated the four games in this recent sequence against top 8 opposition. They have also re-found that defensive nous they have long been associated with, without it holding them back offensively. + + + +
 
Lyon 7.4 / 7.6, 11-16, 44-43, 8.2 ......... pretty average numbers and struggled statistically in the four games versus top half opposition.
 
Nice 9.6 / 6.8, 14-10, 51-41, 12.3 ......... decent enough, but not really performing in back to back games and tough to trust at low odds.
 
Clermont 8.0 / 9.5, 14-14, 49-45, 11.7 .... second season in the top flight, they were 17th in 21/22 and must be delighted with 10th currently given their budget limitations. Recent stats have a lower mid table look, but xP places them bottom two and they seem likely to get dragged into the relegation scrap at some stage.
 
Reims 10.4 / 6.416-11, 60-38, 11.3 ..... Reims have a decent budget (9th best), were 12th last season, are 11th currently, numbers are trending upwards and if they can start turning a few of those draws into wins, they have plenty of upward potential. + + +
 
Toulouse 7.0 / 10.9, 10-19, 45-53, 9.7 .........not quite showing the offensive flair I expected and have given up 3+ BC's in each of their last five starts, including against the bottom two.
 
Troyes 7.6 / 12.6, 12-21, 51-60, 11.0 ..... have goals in them and are the highest scorers outside of the top 7, but those defensive numbers are poor. Goals are always likely when Troyes are in action.
 
Montpellier 6.3 / 11.29-1931-61, 6.7 ............ they have played a good level of opposition, but those last six game numbers are just awful and xP says they are bottom three. They picked up just 12 points over the second half of 21/22 , so have played poorly for a whole year. - - -
 
Nantes 7.7 / 9.8 , 10-15, 41-57, 11.2  ....finished 9th last season and won the Coupe de France, but all numbers recent and season so far, suggests bottom six . I suspect that they have been distracted by playing in Europe, but goals are hard to come by and they got a statistical hammering from two fellow bottom half of the table sides to take into the break.
 
Brest 9.9 / 7.515-955-48, 10.5 ...... really eye-catching stats, especially over their last four starts and against decent level opposition and teams who have been solid (Nice and Reims). + + + +
 
Auxerre 5.0 / 8.7, 5-1838-52, 12.0 ........ no one has scored fewer goals and those numbers tell us why, just 5 BC's in six starts and three came in one game.
 
Ajaccio 9.4 / 7.013-10, 40-40, 11.5 ..........not bottom three numbers by any means and xP places them circa 12th for the season, very unlucky to have just 12 points on board. If we take the PSG match out of their starts, they are a net +5.8 xG, +9 BC's and +11 ITB attempts across their last four games. They have the lowest budget in the league, but have outperformed that by some way. + + +
 
Strasbourg 8.9 / 12.2 , 14-2150-52, 11.0 ....... 6th last season, nothing wrong with them offensively, but it is coming at huge cost at the other end of the pitch, last eight games have averaged 3. 875 goals.
 
Angers 6.0 /11.7 , 13-23, 37-47, 8.2 ........... have given up at least 3 BC's in each of their last 7 starts and no surprise they have already lost 11 games and conceded 34 goals. - - 
 
Four columns, they are , in order, xG, BC's, ITB attempts, average (current) league position of the opponent faced. Good numbers in relation to league placing are highlighted in blue type, poor numbers in red.
 
I am not so bothered about the quality of opposition,  but good stats versus good teams do have extra value of course and the reverse for bad numbers against weaker opponents. Personally, I really like the ITB numbers as an indication of who is playing well or not, football is a low scoring game so we need something else to go on and chances created-conceded inside the box tell us what is happening from close range and are more active (bigger) numbers, which should ultimately mean less margin for error and make them more reliable than other categories.
 
Money talks ? 22/23 Budgets.
 
PSG 700m€
Marseille 250m
Lyon 250m
Monaco 240m
Nice 100m
Lille 100m ......down from 147m
Rennes 90m ......down by 20m
Nantes 75m
Reims 70m
Lens 62m .....up from 43m
Montpellier 52m
Lorient 50m
Brest 48m .......50% increase
Troyes 45m...... 50% increase
Strasbourg 45m
Toulouse 40m
Angers 40m
Auxerre 32m
Clermont 25m
Ajaccio 22m
 
Lens have obviously made good use of the extra funds, but you can make a strong case for Rennes and especially Lille doing just as well after big percentage cuts in their budgets. It doesn't always help to have additional funding, after finishing 12th in 20/21, Bordeaux were given an increase from 65m to 122m for last season and finished bottom of Ligue 1! But it remains true that money talks in football and the more you have, the better you do over the long term, such is life!
 
Most value for their buck so far ? Clermont @ 1.32m€ per point, followed by Lens 1.72m, Lorient 1.79m and Ajaccio 1.83m, no surprise who's points have cost most, it's PSG @ 17m, per point, then Lyon 11.9m, Monaco 8.89m and Marseille 8.33m . only one other club is paying over 5m pp and that is Nantes (5.77m).
 
Ligue 1 players at the World Cup:
 
54 Ligue 1 players went to Qatar , 21 returned to their clubs after the group stage, which would have limited disruption and preparation for the restart, the only clubs with more than one representative at the R16 stage were Angers (2), Rennes (3), Marseille (4), Monaco (6) and no prizes for guessing ......PSG (10). In terms of those still in Qatar this week, at the semi final stage, the five clubs were actually very similarly affected, PSG with three players still on international duty and the other four with two each and hard not to view Angers, small club, small budget as the most hard hit, with Sofiane Boufal ( 11 games, 3 goals , 3 assists, winless in four in his absence) and Azzedine Ounahi (14 appearances) both with Morocco.
 
Restart:
 
Ligue 1 resumes on December 28th/29th and there is also a full round played at New Year (January 1st/2nd) and we will be very active for both .
 
 
Good luck!
 
 

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