Ligue 2: Tours-Valenciennes
Valenciennes played on Monday and recorded a surprise 1-0 win at Lens, we know from experience that the Monday-Friday turnaround is always difficult to handle and that will go double for the visitors who have had a tough schedule, four starts inside 17 days, including road trips to Dijon. Lens and Tours. They had failed to score a goal in 3 of 4 starts prior to that win and have built their game around a solid defence, they might have to have a bit of a rethink in that department today, being without experienced holding player Sekou Baradji and ever present central defender Loic Nestor, who are both suspended. Valenciennes are without a clean sheet in 12 starts without the protection of Baradji and have lost the last four starts he has missed by an aggregate 1-9, Nestor has barely missed a minute this season and was brought in to organise and lead the backline and he will be sorely missed, his absence compounded without the defensive midfielder in front of him.
Tours have been a bit hit and miss since I sung the praises of coach Marco Simone (pictured) ahead of a visit to highflying Red Star last month.........
Tours were very much a first half team last season, something we discussed many times, the reverse is true this season, they have collected 22 points before the break, a joint Ligue 2 high 35 (along with leaders Nancy) in the second half and we have to put much of this down to the good half time adjustments made by coach Marco Simone. Now that we are in the second half of this campaign you have to feel that the Italian head coach who played at the very highest level will be able to use that increased knowledge of L2 opposition to good effect in 2016 and we can expect Tours to continue to improve in the coming months. They are unbetaen in five, winning the last two (scoring five in the process) and are now out of both cups ( losing narrowly, but performing well against top tier opposition in both), so have few distractions. Let's mark them down as a potential improver.
They are coming off a 3-1 win at struggling Paris FC, where they were three up before conceding, they might not have beaten much, but the hosts were "hungry" and Tours were really delighted with their performance and felt they were totally dominant. They now meet another promoted team, albeit one who has been doing much better.
They had to settle for a share of the spoils there in a 0-0 draw, but were the only team looking to win that game and dominated and although most chances they had were from long range, they deserved to win and were denied by the woodwork with a shot that still looks goal bound every time I watch it ! The fact that the game didn't turn into a goal fest had nothing to do with them and was all about the approach from Red Star.
Tours have been playing better than results suggest and my thinking about them remains largely unchanged, they have three of their next four at home and a chance to cement their place in the top ten and to continue building for next season, when a big promotion push is the aim. We can expect Valenciennes to tire and if Simone can work his usual magic after the break, the home side should be able to collect all three points and perhaps with a degree of (eventual)comfort.
Given how this is likely to play out and that Tours have only scored three first half home goals, holding out for a better "in running" quote is definitely an option, but I will keep this simple (but brave !) and opt for 1.5 units Tours -1 ball 2.53 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
