Ligue 2 betting tip: Quevilly-Rouen Metropole - Olympique Nimes

Apr 06, 2018
football betting tips -

 

Ligue 2: Quevilly-Rouen Metropole - Olympique Nimes

 

Notes on Nimes home game with Valenciennes last Friday are below and written between the ------------- lines for ease of reading and separation from new content.
 
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Nimes are "our team in Ligue 2 and have been for so many months and rarely let us down, after a mini blip, they have got firmly back on track and ahead of their last game, a trip to Brest my notes included ..........


 

The return of the real Nimes was confirmed last week with their 4-1 win at in form Orleans ............

 

 

Two weeks ago I previewed Niort-Nimes and Tours- Orleans and they are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off in full.
 
As 99% of you know Nimes are "our" Ligue 2 team, I have been championing them for circa 20 months and we usually discuss them most weeks. They might trail Reims by 11 points, but for my money they are a better team and I am delighted that after a mini blip they have got back on track, beating Niort in that game 4-1 and then coming from behind last week to edge past a strong Paris FC team 2-1, to open up a four point gap over Clermont in third and they are again looking good for automatic promotion. They are still not perhaps firing on full cylinders, but across the two games they created a huge number of chances, "terrible two" goalscorers Rachid Alioui and Umut Bozok scored five between them, their 12th and 20th goals of the season and they also hit the woodwork twice and what I really liked was that they were getting a  lot of crosses into the box again last week from open play. You might remember a jokey piece I wrote about crosses being the new high press, with Nimes the key exponent and they were back to doing what they do best and modern day defenders are no longer used to facing this kind of offense.

Orleans are in great shape and are unbeaten in six , but did have to settle for a share of the points in that game at Tours (see below). They won away to Valenciennes last week and are now in 11th with no relegation or promotion "issues", they would have snatched your arm off if you had offered them that pre season, it was always going to be about survival given their history and budgetry constraints and in many ways they have been, along with Chateauroux, the surprise package of Ligue 2. But they are a level below Nimes, have relatively little to play for and lost the reverse fixture 4-1, in that game Bozok scored but was a little off , Alioui had nine attempts, scored twice and saw a lot of the ball, with his heat map red all around the Orleans box and we can expect another big night from him, but if he doesn't get you, Umut will !


 


18 attempts, 15 inside the box, 9 on target , 28 crosses from open play are very good numbers, especially on the road and they were in cruise mode from the 50th minute by which time they were three up. The team had an absolute crazy welcome back in Nimes at the railway station and goodness know what is going to happen if (when) they clinch promotion. Now they make the long (1,200 km ) trip up to Brest looking to restore that 4 point advantage). I think Nimes are a stronger team on the road, they get more space to exploit and they have won 19/31 of away starts an incredible 61.29%.

I rarely preview Brest games, but did look at their road trip to Nancy late in January where I spoke about them being more open under their current head coach, especially in away starts ..............

 

I am not the biggest fan of Brest, but they are more pleasing on the eye under Jean-Marc Furlan and he knows how to get promotion from this league, having done so three times with Troyes and he has got the visitors knocking on the door, sitting in 7th, seven points off automatic promotion, five from the play off spot. He will know they are not going to force their way into one of those by settling for too many draws, which was the old Brest way and they have been happier on the road for many months, winning 7/12 and with their 11 away starts this season averaging a whopping 3.18 goals per game, which is 1.27 more than at the same stage last season and when teams are benefitting from playing a more open approach, it is hard to come up for a legitimate reason for that to change. They will surely arrive looking for maximum points today from a Nancy side, who like many before them, have struggled back in L2 after relegation from the top flight.

 

Brest blew two goal lead there to draw 2-2 and they have subsequently played six games, taking six points from the three road games, four from the home fixtures, which included a 3-1 loss to basement club Tours in the most recent. The hosts have been treading water through the interim period , are currently 9th, eight point behind Nimes and that automatic promotion place and five adrift of the playoff spots, only three points will help them now, the visitors really only play one way and this should be an open encounter. Having said that, it is here at the Stade Francis-Le Blé that Brest have still struggled to throw off those negative shackles , but their need and the visitors style of football should make this an offensive contest and play to Nimes strengths. No team news of note.

Temperatures set to rise in Brest through the day, but will feel very cold and it could be wet (rain/sleet) at some stage during the game.

They won 2-0 with Umut Bozok scoring his 22nd goal of the season, ten more than any other player in Ligue 2, one of those on 12 is Rachid Alioui and I bet once promotion is sealed they will be looking to get these two 1 and 2 in the scoring chart, but it might well happen anyway.  I love everything about the Nimes story, the way they play, supporters, recruitment is fantastic, forget the players and they are plenty good enough, who is scouting/ analysing the signings ? Fitness levels are very high too and ahead of the Brest game I also wrote ......

 

 

Nimes have scored 15 goals and have a +11 goal difference through the last 15 minutes of both halves ( 8-3 FH/ 7-1 SH) in road games.

 

They took the lead in the 34th minutes to add to those numbers and come on strong when other teams start to flag. These kind of stats throw up so many (good) potential in play bets.
 
There are notes on Valenciennes in the Paris FC preview above. They arrive without central defender Baptiste Aloé (lost 6/7 when he plays 36 minutes or less) and left sided midfielder Tony Mauricio (played 20 minutes or less in 4 away starts, lost all by a combined 3-12) who are both suspended. The one away start both missed was the trip to Reims which Valenciennes lost 5-1 , I see this as just as tough and Nimes as strong offensively as the L2 leaders. 4-1 is a favourite Nimes score ( 5 times in 25 starts, also scoring four on another three occasions in that sequence), so 4-0/4-1.
 

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Nimes took the lead after 20 minutes through Rachid Alioui ( see above ) and I expected them to then run away with things, but it was hard work and that was the sole goal of the game. They came close before that with what would have been a wonder goal from Teji Savanier who later set up the goal and he was head and shoulders above any other player on the pitch. It was a terrific goal and one few teams in L2 would be capable of scoring, but overall, a sub par performance. I have been thinking a bit about this and I just think that the result is too important now and the temptation to sit on a lead at times will be great, with 7 rounds to play and promotion within their grasp it is understandable, but I don't like it much and will not be taking sub 1 goal handicaps about them at home from now on in.

That is not to say that they cannot run riot and not many teams will buckle down and battle like Valenciennes did and I was quite impressed with the away side and they franked the form with a 2-1 road win at Tours in midweek. I do not see it as such an issue on the road, teams have to open up more, Nimes are devastating on the break, just look at the goal last week and will get more space. Today ON will be without super talented young right back Sofiane Alakouch he missed a handful of games in early season, including four on the road, but Nimes won three, including 4-1 at third placed Ajaccio, 4-0 at Tours and 2-1 at Lorient who are currently 4th (they and Ajaccio have otherwise only lost 3/30 at home), so we cannot really use his absence as an excuse today, regardless of how good he is.


 
QRM come into this in the relegation playoff place, only outside the bottom two on goal difference and six adrift of the team in 15th , so not many teams immediately in the dog fight. This has been on the cards for some time and to be honest, to be in with a chance of survival with seven rounds to play is an achievement and in a couple of early season previews I spoke about just what they were up against .......
 
 
 
1Today they (Niort) host newly promoted Quevilly-Rouen who were playing in the fourth tier two seasons ago, but have achieved back to back promotions, their crowds (6-700) and budget (it is the lowest in L2 by some way) have not kept pace and it feels like the rapid improvement has finally caught up with them, they have one win, but six defeats and sit in the relegation playoff spot, already five points adrift of the team immediately above them in the table. They have conceded at least two goals in 4 of their last 5 starts and are used to winning and not sitting back and almost all their games this season have been open and could have produced more goals than the 2.67 pg they have actually averaged. They have had goalkeeper Joan Hartock to thank for keeping the scoreline down in several matches, they do not look up to L2 standard and the two teams below them have far more improvement in them and potential and this is going to be an incredible tough and long season for QRM.

 

 
2They lost that 2-1 and subsequently at home to Ajaccio last week 1-0, they only have Tours below them in the table and are already seven points adrift of BEBP in 17th. They did hit the woodwork last week , but had only one attempt on target and Hartock again made several saves. Auxerre have ten points from their last four starts, including a trip to Brest and home victory over Lorient and they are looking for a hat-trick of home wins and clean sheets, they do not score many, but are tight at the back and it is hard to see QRM overly troubling them.
 
 

3QRM took the lead and again hit the woodwork, but found a way to lose 2-1, they are creating chances, but are at a low ebb confidence wise and not much is going their way.Last week I again opposed them in their derby game with Le Havre which they hosted and was pretty much their biggest game of the season, they lost 2-0. Their numbers were ok, but misleading as they were two down with a half still to play and it was job done for the visitor.

 
QRM are now 5 points adrift of the relegation playoff spot, ten from safety and look absolutely booked for bottom 2 and I would almost never say that at this stage of the season, only saving grace is that right now you would have to say the same about Tours, so maybe only one team has to go into freefall, but I would still see Tours as having the more potential of the bottom two over the remaining 25 games, although we have see precious little of it to date.

They have won their last two and impressively scoring six goals which should ensure they again play on the front foot today, but they have lost ten times at home and are 0-0-6 against top 9 teams here and their four wins have come versus bottom half teams, including the bottom two and another against a team already on vacation, who had played a couple of days earlier (Auxerre) and were ill prepared (something we discussed in build up). Big gulf in quality and points with Nimes having collected 1.06 ppg more through 31 starts.

 

1.75 units Olympique Nimes -0.75 2.17 ball asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Nimes have scored 16 goals and have a +12 goal difference through the last 15 minutes of both halves ( 9-3 FH/ 7-1 SH) in road games.
 
 

Quevilly Rouen : Gounet, Hartock - Nguinda, Albert, Lefort, Sery, Clauss, Vignaud - Rogie, Tié-Bi, Oliveira, Basque, Boujedra, Taufflieb - Gakpa, Louis, Ndao, Mamilonne.

 

Nimes : Sourzac, Valette - Boscagli, Briançon, Cadamuro, Harek, Paquiez - Bobichon, Del Castillo, Hsissane, Savanier, Valdivia, Valls - Alioui, Depres, Bozok, Ripart, Thioub.

 

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Country: 
France
Sport: 
Football
Competition: 
French Ligue 2
Football Teams: 
Nimes

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