Ligue 2 stats and Troyes-Chambly betting tip..................
Nov 22, 2019
Ligue 2: 14 rounds played .
ITB net numbers:
Lens +21 ( +4)
Lorient +18 (+4)
Ajaccio -13 (0)
Troyes +33 (+4)
Sochaux +9 (-1)
Clermont +19 (+13)
Guingamp +32 (+15)
Grenoble +5 (+5)
Le Havre +16 (+14)
Nancy +25 (+7)
Rodez -37 (-15)
Auxerre +17 (+7)
Valenciennes -14 (-9)
Caen -2 (-2)
Niort -53 (-23)
Chateauroux -20 (-8)
Le Mans -8 (-5)
Chambly -19 (-9)
Paris FC -38 (-13)
Orleans +9 (+12)
I am absolutely delighted with how the Ligue 2 ITB numbers have held up, they have pinpointed a lot of teams on the up/to avoid and been pretty much on the money. I guess Ajaccio are the biggest exception and they have remained near the top despite having bottom half figures in terms of ITB. Niort are in freefall and they are struggling to get above 5 attempts created ITB and have twice registered ZERO in games, hard to score without any from inside the box ! Rodez look set to continue to fall away and Orleans are unfortunate to be bottom of the table and they have had little good luck in front of goal. Guingamp have a big budget and have been increasingly coming to terms with life in Ligue 2 following relegation, it is a tough adjustment and they were -1 after round 7, so have gone +33 subsequently, they are vying with Troyes for the #1 ranking and seem certain to haul themselves into the title race at some stage. Nancy who draw too many games and have to get out of that habit and Auxerre, are almost certainly better than the actual league table suggests.
Troyes- Chambly
Chambly got off to a decent start in L2 following promotion last season and were unbeaten through their first six starts ( 3-3-0) , but at the time their numbers were not good and I wrote ............
Chambly will be delighted with seven points from their three games following promotion from National and they have yet to concede in the league, but a bit of a wake up call and return to reality with a 2-0 loss at National team Gazelec and, as we discussed on Tuesday, a loss for a L2 team away to a third tier club is rare in recent campaigns. Chambly have had a meteoric rise and were playing 6th tier football 9 years ago, they are a tiny club, their budget has increased massively this season (x3 what it was in National ) but is still the smallest in the second tier and their home stadium is not up to standard. The team have outgrown the club if that makes sense, they are continuing to do so and teams have history of continuing runs like this, but also, eventually, things always catch up with them and I still expect Chambly to struggle this season.
They are 0-1-7 subsequently have failed to score in six of those and conceded 3+ goals in three and lost all five by a combined 15-2 to the teams with double digit + ITB stats and tonight they travel to the #1 ranked team in Troyes , a club we like and rarely oppose and ahead of a recent trip to then leader Lorient my notes included ...........
Two big Ligue 2 players meet in what is an attractive looking lunchtime kick off.
Money usually talks in football and in my pre season notes I looked at each L2 team's budget for this season and said: Biggest "shock" of all is Lorient, after relegation in 2016-17, they halved their budget (like Caen this time round) to 18m, the following (last) campaign a further third to 12m, now it has more than doubled to 25m. Lorient clearly invested well and sit top of the table and will remain there today, regardless of result, with a 2+ point lead. In terms of net ITB attempts, they are +11 which is decent, but not quite what we would expect for a team with such a good advantage in first place through 11 rounds.
Troyes were very unfortunate not to get promoted last season, they were third, which before the introduction of playoffs recently would have seen them promoted, missing out by just three points. They lost five of their first six starts and took time to recover, but collected 42 points in the second half of the campaign, next best was 33. They retained a similar and competitive budget this season, but again had a disruptive few weeks at the start of the campaign and lost Bryan Mbeumo to Brentford , albeit for a very large fee , at least by L2 standards. Ahead of their league opener I wrote ...........
Troyes have so far retained Kévin Fortuné, Bryan Mbeumo and Yoann Touzghar who scored 36 goals between them last season (two more than the whole Niort squad managed) and the trio are all in the squad for today, despite interest in a couple and for big money in the case of Mbeumo. They also signed defensive midfielder Florian Tardieu from Zulte Waregem this week , he fits the Troyes profile of liking an experienced player ( see my notes from opening day last season at the foot of this email), he has played some 200 Ligue 2 games and goes straight into the squad today. They look to have upgraded in other defensive areas and should put in a big promotion push this season. In 2018-19 they finished third, but collected 5 points more than champions Metz and 4 more than second placed Brest from Matchday 6 onwards. Troyes won on opening day last year, but then lost their next five starts before things clicked, we can make a case,a strong one, for them being the best L2 team over 32 games ( 84.2% of the season) and if they keep the trio, or at least two and possibly replace the other, they have to be amongst the title favourites.
Troyes are 5th and could move second with the win, they have collected 77 points over the last 38 league games ( a full season) and that total would have seen them promoted in each of the last five seasons, three times as champion , Lorient have 66 points over the same sequence. So, as good as the leaders have been and they are doubtless upgraded, Troyes have been 11 points better over that "full" season and the visitors' ITB numbers of +30 are the best in L2 which verifies everything and this is a very well run club, with three promotions to Ligue 1 in the last 8 campaigns, but perhaps without the real budget to stay there.Troyes might be the best team in L2, they are almost certainly top 2-3 and being able to bet them off level ball at huge odds, regardless of opposition, in a league where home wins are proving very difficult to come by, has to be the way to go.
Home win and maybe a chance for Troyes to throw the shackles off, which they too rarely do, but if the breakthrough come early enough (first hour) the floodgates could open and there is as big a gulf in class here as the league table now indicates and ITB numbers have indicated for two months.
2 units Troyes -1 ball 2.27 asian line/Sportmarket .
Troyes : Gallon, Rénot, Baya, Giraudon, Kouyaté, Salmier, Souaré, Barthelmé, Chambost, Darbion, Pires, Raveloson, Tardieu, Tchimbembe, Ba, Bedia, Pintor, Sacko, Touzghar.
Chambly : Pontdemé, Pinoteau, Padovani, Gonzalez, Fofana, Jaques, Derrien, Dequaire, El Hriti, Soubervie, Popelard, Flochon, Beaulieu, Eickmayer, Fleurier, M. Martin, David, Guezoui.
Good Luck.
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