We have written multiple times about Millwall both this season and in the past about their improved form in the second half of the campaign of what is now seven straight seasons in which they have come on strong after Christmas, in early New Year I noted.......

 

 

They went from 15th at the time of writing, to still having a top 6 chance on the final day. The benefits of knowing when a team is "likely" to play better in general terms are obvious and we can and will discuss the possible reasons for this improvement at a later date (soon) , but the Lions are not an isolated case and it is something we have looked at with other teams in previous years. 

 

Bristol Rovers are one and are worth touching upon briefly now, as they have just been promoted from League 2 playing at a sensational level through the second half of the campaign . Back in 2018 I wrote ........

 

Rovers arrive in much better spirits, they have won 4/5 and scored 12 goals in that sequence and are up to 11th, within five points of the playoff and with a game in hand on many teams above them in the table and, as we have discussed many times previously, they are very much a second half of the season team and almost always come on strong after Christmas. The Gas will have good travelling support as always, having sold their allocation and the game is being beamed back to the Memorial Stadium where others can watch the contest, a game which Rovers view as vital. Visiting head coach Darrell Clarke spoke in detail on the club website this week about what he felt was the cause of their poor run earlier in the season ( 5-6 senior players all out of form at the same time), but added that he now felt he had almost a full squad in good shape and playing at a decent level. Rovers have come from way off the pace at New Year to twice earn promotion in the last decade and have gone close from a similar position on at least one other occasion and are definitely a team to keep an eye on in the League 1 run in.

 

As you can see they have "previous" and we have used that to our advantage in earlier years. This season they were 18th with 26 points from 21 games and then picked up 54 from their final 25 starts to clinch an automatic promotion spot.............

 

 

 

 

2021/22				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1	1	Forest Green Rovers	46	23	15	8	75	44	+31	84	XLLO	23	14	4	5	34	18	23	9	11	3	41	26
	2	1	Exeter City	46	23	15	8	65	41	+24	84	LXWW	23	14	6	3	37	19	23	9	9	5	28	22
	3	1	Bristol Rovers	46	23	11	12	71	49	+22	80	WWOW	23	14	4	5	38	20	23	9	7	7	33	29
	4	1	Northampton Town	46	23	11	12	60	38	+22	80	WXWW	23	13	5	5	32	15	23	10	6	7	28	23
	5	1	Port Vale	46	22	12	12	67	46	+21	78	WLLL	23	11	6	6	35	22	23	11	6	6	32	24
	6	1	Swindon Town	46	22	11	13	77	54	+23	77	WWWW	23	9	7	7	35	25	23	13	4	6	42	29
	7	2	Mansfield Town	46	22	11	13	67	52	+15	77	XXWW	23	15	4	4	40	24	23	7	7	9	27	28
	8		Sutton United	46	22	10	14	69	53	+16	76	WLWL	23	14	5	4	38	20	23	8	5	10	31	33
	9		Tranmere Rovers	46	21	12	13	53	40	+13	75	WWLW	23	16	3	4	36	16	23	5	9	9	17	24
	10		Salford City	46	19	13	14	60	46	+14	70	LXWX	23	10	9	4	33	21	23	9	4	10	27	25
	11		Newport County	46	19	12	15	67	58	+9	69	LWLL	23	9	6	8	40	31	23	10	6	7	27	27
	12		Crawley Town	46	17	10	19	56	66	-10	61	XLLL	23	9	6	8	28	29	23	8	4	11	28	37
	13		Leyton Orient	46	14	16	16	62	47	+15	58	LWLW	23	9	5	9	36	22	23	5	11	7	26	25
	14		Bradford City	46	14	16	16	53	55	-2	58	WWWL	23	6	10	7	29	29	23	8	6	9	24	26
	15	4	Colchester United	46	14	13	19	48	60	-12	55	WXWW	23	6	9	8	25	28	23	8	4	11	23	32
	16	1	Walsall	46	14	12	20	47	60	-13	54	LXWL	23	10	5	8	30	29	23	4	7	12	17	31
	17	1	Hartlepool United	46	14	12	20	44	64	-20	54	LXLL	23	9	7	7	24	26	23	5	5	13	20	38
	18	2	Rochdale	46	12	17	17	51	59	-8	53	WLLW	23	7	11	5	28	23	23	5	6	12	23	36
	19	2	Harrogate Town	46	14	11	21	64	75	-11	53	LWWL	23	6	7	10	32	36	23	8	4	11	32	39
	20	2	Carlisle United	46	14	11	21	39	62	-23	53	LWLW	23	8	7	8	19	23	23	6	4	13	20	39
	21	1	Stevenage	46	11	14	21	45	68	-23	47	WLLW	23	9	6	8	29	30	23	2	8	13	16	38
	22	1	Barrow	46	10	14	22	44	57	-13	44	LLLW	23	5	9	9	25	28	23	5	5	13	19	29
	23		Oldham Athletic	46	9	11	26	46	75	-29	38	XLLL	23	5	4	14	29	42	23	4	7	12	17	33
	24		Scunthorpe United	46	4	14	28	29	90	-61	26	LXLX	23	3	7	13	15	36	23	1	7	15	14	54

 

Rovers played at 99.36 point level for those 25 games and two of the last three teams to be promoted with 94+ points finished top 3 at the higher level the next season, so they could go well in League 1 next season, but this is not really about that.

 

There are many ways we can use this information, most obviously by betting the team(s) in question once they hit their second half of the season stride, like Millwall , or to look at it as a springboard to success on a bigger scale .............

 

I have a team who have played well in the second half of most recent seasons , sensationally in the last two and who are well aware of this, it has been discussed by many at the club and this is a sleeping giant who have spent much of this last campaign building for 22/23 , they feel that a lot of things are in place and will be investing this summer ( additions have already started)  to add the final couple of pieces in the jigsaw and this is now a very stable club. Plans have been in place for this summer for many months, all geared to hitting the ground running, they are going to a pre season overseas training camp for the first time in many years and the structure is finally set off the pitch and this is a club ready to make the next step forward and they have REAL potential. They are low level at the moment, but I feel they could be knocking on the EPL door at some stage in the not too distant future and I see some similarities with how they are now run , with Brentford, with many of the same thinking and ideals, this is not a club who will be firing anyone after a few bad results, as long as they feel they are heading in the right long term direction, for example . An exciting project and one we need to get on board with and they will form one of , if not THE main preseason previews.

 

Good luck !