MLS betting tip: Seattle Sounders- Houston Dynamo
Oct 08, 2018
MLS: Seattle Sounders- Houston Dynamo
We had been following Sounders with great success for months until recently, last time they won for us was away to Vancouver Whitecaps (2-1) and those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email. I did side with them at home to Philadelphia Union after that when the run ended and they lost 1-0, such is the way of these things that they lost again away to Galaxy a few days later, but got back on track at home to woeful Rapids last time out winning 4-0
Sounders look good for top six, sitting in 5th having played 1-2 games fewer than everyone else, however, should they slip up tonight, the three teams below them would be within 1-5 points and their next two starts are on the road. However, win today and they would be almost certain of a post season spot and within three points of second place ( third would mean the best knockout stage draw, second avoiding that round all together, a massive advantage).
Dynamo arrive with very little to play for, they can only really finish 9th or 10th, they have won the US Open Cup, so qualified for Champions League football and have only collected 8 road points all season. Hard to see what their real motivation is, or, even if they have some, how it can compare to that of Sounders and the home side are just playing on a different level and have collected 22 more points than Dynamo since the first week in June. They have also dominated this fixture in Seattle with a 7-3-0 record since 2009, conceding just two goals.
If Houston have any fight left, I think they will save it for their final home game which is actually against Sounders the week after next. Seattle by 2.
1.75 units Seattle Sounders -1 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
MLS : Vancouver Whitecaps- Seattle Sounders (written September 15th)
I kep thinking to myself OK, enough with Sounders now, their good form has gone on too long and we have been to the well a LOT, but two things, one is they were not actually playing that well early in this amazing run, which I touched upon several times and secondly, oddsmakers still keep putting up a price.
They arrive here on the back of a 3-1 home win over Sporting KC.........
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I dont't know how long we can continue to side with Sounders, but as long as they carry on winning and being undervalued by oddsmakers I guess !
Last weekend we stuck with them away to Portand Timbers and those notes also contain a few words about Sporting .............
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A week is a long time in sport and politics, let alone two months and on June 30th I previewed the meeting between these two in Seattle and was firmly in the Timbers camp .........
These two rivals (270km apart) met in the first derby of the season in Portland last month with Timbers scoring late, the only goal in a game low on scoring chances, with Sounders having just two attempts from inside the box, one on target. These matches are always keenly fought with avoiding defeat as the priority for both and getting a team as defensively solid as Portland versus an opponent struggling for form, with a handicap start looks the logical way to go.
Head coach Giovanni Savarese is very hungry, as this is his first big job in the main role, having been with NASL team New York Cosmos for seven years, he took a little while to get his ideas across and Timbers started 0-2-3 from their first five starts under him, shipping 12 goals, but are 6-3-0 subsequently conceding just seven through that sequence. The change in goalkeeper might have helped with Jeff Attinella conceding only five in eight since he took over from Jake Gleeson, but is the solidity of the defensive unit which has clicked more than anything, under Gleeson (STAT of the day alert !)Timbers were facing opposition shots from an average of 13.9 yards the worst in MLS, Attinella has only had to deal with attempts from 20.6 yards the best in the MLS and a massive difference. Also ,the teams they have been facing NYCFC ( scored an average of 2.13 pg otherwise) , Eathquakes ( 1.67), LAFC ( 2.0) , SKC ( 2.07) and Atlanta ( 2.06) have been of good offensive quality and amongst the best in that regard in MLS. They have conceded 19 goals total which puts them quite a way down in terms of least given up, but I have very few doubts that, right now, this is the best defense in the league.
Portland won that 3-2 but it was noteworthy that Seattle scored twice against a team posting such strong defensive numbers and it was not long before I was championing Sounders and ahead of a home game with FC Dallas two weeks ago I wrote .........
We have been milking Seattle Sounders over the last month and they have yet to let us down, unbeaten in 7, conceding just four goals , winning their last four and I am loath to desert them today in a fixture they traditionally boss. Last ten meetings here in Seattle have gone 9-1-0, with Sounders scoring 2+ in nine, 3+ in seven,29 goals total (2.9 pg average) and keeping clean sheets in 5 of the last 6. Add in the hosts form and that FC Dallas are suddenly struggling defensively , giving up 11 in their last 6, including three at home (1-3) to Western Conference basement club San Jose Earthquakes (who's problems I have well documented recently) last time out and we have a bet !
Notes on Seattle from their most recent start are reproduced at the foot of this email (edit: see August 12th email). They won that 2-1, trailed for 72 minutes and were again, perhaps not great, but did create a lot (14 attempts inside the box and just shy of 500 completed passes which are both huge numbers for any, let alone a road team in this league) and woe betide anyone if they do start playing to their capacity ! Four of the six teams immediately above Seattle dropped points yesterday and their race to top 6 and beyond is fast gaining pace and no reason for them or us to take our foot off the accelerator just yet.
They won that 2-1 and the next week it did all click and they saw off LA Galaxy 5-0 and we have a super confident team who are 7-2-0 since the last meeting with Timbers.
The hosts have also gone off the boil and have conceded seven in their last two starts, for both of which we opposed them and it is hard to believe how different this game now feels .
Last weekend ahead of their 3-0 loss in KC to Sporting ........
Very briefly, feels like Timbers have lost their way a little in the last 10 days or so and playing West Coast last weekend, in Washington in midweek and now in Kansas , 1,600km from the capital , but still a long way from home and having already shipped six goals in a week to two teams ouside the playoff zone (although DCU look post season bound currently and far removed from their early season selves), this looks a big ask. Sporting are back up to second, have 3/4 starts at home now after back to back road wins against teams with solid home records (one previously unbeaten) and their eye firmly on Western Conference leaders FC Dallas, who are showing signs of vulnerability. Too much travel, play and not enough rotation !
There are more notes on them within the DCU preview below.
We have to stick with Sounders, especially given the handicap start.
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Seattle won that 1-0, are now 6th and could move to within five points of first place today, which is just incredible considering where they were 6-8 weeks ago, "unfortunately" for us, Portland also boosted the form line with a win over Toronto in midweek and there is no reason for us or Sounders to take our foot off the accelerator . SKC are a good solid team and have won their last four after a mini blip, but have been fortunate in that they met a quartet of teams who were struggling a little and they will be asked far more questions today .
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They won comfortably despite playing the last 15 minutes with ten after the dismissal of CB Chad Marshall who will sit out today. The stats were skewed in favour of SKC, but that is always likely to be the case when you are up by two and down by one (man) ! They are now in the playoff picture and have eyes on finishing as high as possible and have had two full weeks to savour that placing and work on a replacement for the central defender and how to approach this.
Vancouver are very inconsistent , at least in terms of results , they are fairly consistent in terms of leaking goals and have given up 15 more than at the same stage last season. They have not kept a clean sheet in nearly five months and allowed 2+ in 13 of their last 16 starts. They have led the league in clearances both this and last season, but since goalkeeper Tim Parker left, those that they have blocked have fallen from 2.3 to 1.6 per game. They are allowing a similar number of attempts, but quite a lot more inside the box at 61%, nothing major, but my own opinion is that Whitecaps overachieved with their numbers last year, they are bottom of possession stats for the second year running and have only 26% of the ball in their opponents third and it is just that now, all that pressure they are inviting is coming at a cost. It feels unfair to put the blame on Stefan Marinovic or any Whitecaps keeper, but either would be a downgrade on Parker who has conceded just 19 in 22 starts for NYRB (lost 4) , losing 3/6 and conceding 10 when he is absent.
Sounders have lost on just 1/7 visits to Vancouver and won the last four h2h meetings in Seattle without conceding and I take them to continue to boss this big rivalry.
Yordy Reyna is suspended for Whitecaps, he has 5 goals and 9 assists ALL since week 12 with a scoring contribution in 5 of their 7 wins since that round of games.
1.75 units Seattle Sounders level ball 2.15 asian line/Sportmarket.
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