17		Everton	31	8	5	18	34	53	-19	29	XWLL	16	7	2	7	21	20	15	1	3	11	13	33
	18		Burnley	31	4	13	14	26	45	-19	25	XLWL	15	3	6	6	13	20	16	1	7	8	13	25
	19		Watford	32	6	4	22	30	62	-32	22	LLLW	16	2	1	13	15	39	16	4	3	9	15	23
	20		Norwich City	32	5	6	21	22	66	-44	21	LWOL	16	3	3	10	12	31	16	2	3	11	10	35

 

That 93rd minute equaliser for Everton last night , after Leicester City had led for 87 minutes, must have felt like a knife through the heart to Burnley and all associated with the club, without it, the Clarets could have moved out of the bottom 3 for the first time since Matchday 3 (which doesn't really count !) with the win this evening. However, the three points will still take them to within a point of safety and is a mighty big carrot, with the Toffees playing Liverpool on Sunday and then Chelsea, whereas Burnley next host Wolves and then travel to Watford, who have lost 10 straight games at Vicarage Road. It is a huge 10 days for both clubs, but a real opportunity for Burnley to end it above Everton if they start with three points this evening.

 

Burnley have played three games in the last 15 days, first up was a battling come from behind win over Everton and my notes on that are reproduced at the foot of this email, they then went to Norwich and lost 2-0, they started well but fell behind to a deflected shot and then struggled to turn good positions and possession into clear cut chances. That was a costly defeat and was followed by the shock dismissal of Sean Dyche (thankfully, it looks like the pictured Royal Dyche pub will keep it's name). He was replaced on an interim basis by Mike Jackson, he took his team to the London Stadium on Sunday and they led early , before the Hammers came on strong and earned a share of the points, two big events in that game,  a serious injury to MF Ashley Westwood and then the Carets missed a penalty which would have given them a two goal lead. It was all West Ham after the break, but Burnley bossed the first half and need something similar this evening.

 

You might as well toss a coin to see which Southampton side turn up, the one who lost 6-0 at home to Chelsea in their start before last (it could easily have been 10-0) or the one who beat Arsenal 1-0 at the weekend, with the Gunners confusing matters even more by beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge last night ! Saints are safe and have their "derby" with Brighton in three days time and whilst they are the better team when they are motivated, the showing against the Gunners was their only performance and win in six starts through which they have conceded 15 goals. We have been here before with them , their game is all about a high energy press and it doesn't work when there is little at stake and/or you run out of motivation/energy, last season they started strongly with 29 points from their first 17 starts and then went 4-2-15 to end the campaign in freefall and as a club they need a bit of a rethink. They have a system which works and can work well, but not for 38 or even 30 games and owners Sport Republic have some big decisions to make in their first summer in charge of the club.They have also been as up and down in their previous 7 starts against bottom 4 teams, winning three and losing three, conceding 2+ goals in four, including a 2-2 home draw with Burnley and the Clarets have scored at least twice in 4 of the last 5 h2h meetings. 

 

I think the hosts need two goals to win this and it feels a toss up between that which is priced at 2.52 or the straight win @ 2.69, I think the goal option is marginally better.  They have done it on a regular basis in this fixture/series, did so in their last home start and should have scored twice against the Hammers.

 

 

 

Good luck !