NFL : analytics and young coaches ...............
Jan 17, 2019
The stubborn nature of the NFL and why/how it will have to change.
I have watched a lot of NFL games in recent years with head in hands, doubly so this season, wondering just what is going on !
Teams seem to start games with a plan and stick with that, regadless of score, or without consideration to what everyone ..... those of us viewing on TV, in the stadium , even on the sidelines, can clearly see is not working ! With a rigid pattern set and many games lost, in the opening exchanges. This is just impossible to justify or comprehend . I do know that analytics are used less in the NFL and US sport in general (baseball aside), but this doesn't fully explain why teams are allowing opponents to dictate play from the first to 60th minute, by doing the same thing over and over again ! We have seen it so often this season, that teams have had success on the opening play or two and that has been how the game has played out. If it is working and the opponent is not changing anything, why should the team with the lead deviate from their game plan , at least until the opposition does, when they know that most won't ? At times I have sat thinking ,ok, this is too obvious, what am I missing, but it is happening game after game, week after week.
Last weekend there was a new analyst on Sky, with Atlanta Falcons star WR Mohamed Sanu in town, he was part of the team covering the Chargers game and LA quarterback Philip Rivers was getting blitzed and harried snap after snap, with very little time to release the ball. Sanu was asked in such circumstances if he changed routes, perhaps shortened them, so that the QB could get rid of the ball quicker. No, the answer was that these plays and the game plan in general were pretty much set in stone and would not be changed and that (his) team had already decided pre game what would work and that players (not just receivers) had to try to make it so, even if it plainly was not ! Total madness !
There are signs that things are changing in US Sport, albeit slowly, the appointment of NBA sports bettor, Haralabos Voulgaris to the Dallas Mavericks as Director of Quantitative Research and Development, in the hope that Voulgaris’ statistical eye can help find the Mavericks a much needed "edge", is an interesting development. I would not be surprised to see a number of similar style appointments over the next five years and not from traditional sources, by which I mean in terms of the NFL, non american football backgrounds.
There are additional stats available league wide for the first time this season, via Next Gen Stats,the NFL’s advanced player-tracking data service, it began several years ago, but has been used only by a few, with most slow to catch up and probably unaware of what was/is available, or how to use it. I have a saying (not original !) I repeat often, which is that "people don't put the same value on the same information" , that applies to betting as much as it does to data on player performance, it is useless unless you can meaningfully interpret it. Next Gen Stats is the capture of real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, for every play, on every inch of the field. Sensors throughout the stadium track tags placed on players' shoulder pads, charting individual movements within inches.
Some of this data is public, the rest available only to teams, most of whom seem to unable to use it, yet . This will change of course and over time, more and more data will be available and younger coaches and general managers will mature using it, but for now, it has more value and will give a bigger edge to the smarter franchises who fully realise the benefit and can put people in place to exploit it. My thinking is that a DOF at a European football (soccer) team for example, who has spent years interpreting data with an understanding of the NFL, even a fairly basic one , would be of more use in coming seasons than an AF dinosaur who is unwilling, or unable to change.
The two teams in the NFC Conference Championship game, are amongst the few exceptions, the Rams with a very young coach who will make decisions on the fly, but based on sound data and the Saints who, as an organisation, have embraced analytics and it is no cincidence IMO that these are the only two teams in the NFL who won 13 games and both could perhaps have got to 14 or 15 wins. Saints would have, but opted to rest all key players for the post season in their final regular season game.
The LA Rams appointed Sean McVay (pictured) on January 12, 2017, he was 30 years, 11 months, 19 days old, the youngest head coach in modern NFL history, his team are playing in the Championship Conference game this weekend , 60 minutes away from the Super Bowl. Matt Nagy was hired by the Chicago Bears for 2018 and turned the Bears from 5-11 to 12-4 and a "contender". Green Bay have just appointed Matt LaFleur, also in his 30's as head coach and this is the way the game is going and it is all linked.
McVay and the words "brilliant offensive mind" are often included in the same sentence, he might be, but it is probably more correct that he understands analytics and data on the sport. His concept " put the ball into the hands of your best playmakers in favorable situations" implies that ,and he clearly comprehends situational plays. Pro Football weekly wrote this back in September: According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Todd Gurley has rushed against eight or more defenders in the box on just 16 percent of his carries so far this season. That means he carried the ball just 10 times against a loaded box. According to the site, 37 other running backs in the league have seen a higher percentage of their carries against eight or more defenders in the box. McVay knows that running against loaded boxes is usually pointless and inefficient. You are going to average a significantly lower yards per carry when there are more defenders in the box. The only time it’s acceptable is in short-yardage situations, at the goal line or when running out the clock at the end of the game. Any other time, you are just throwing away opportunities to put points on the board.The Rams only run when the numbers are in their favor. Take a look at this run by Gurley in the first quarter of last week’s game. The Rams come out in '11' personnel, forcing the Chargers to counter with their nickel package. That move, in itself, will create a numbers advantage for the offense as now there are only two linebackers on the field.But McVay doesn’t stop there. To create an even bigger disadvantage for the defense, the Rams run a fake jet sweep, which causes the backside defensive end to pause for a fraction of a second.At the snap of the ball, there were only five defenders “in the box” to stop the run. When you add in the jet sweep, there are now four defenders trying to beat five blockers and the running back.
Good and (relatively) simple isn't it ?
McVay also knows it is productive to throw on first down more often, you will never hear an "older" coach talk about anything like that, it is always establish the run first or something similar, or "analytics will never get fired" (that's a "good" one) , going with the "tried and trusted" which the opposition expect, rather than looking for the more unusual play , or one most likely to garner greater dividends. McVay will adapt to whatever defensive set ups will allow , it is not rocket science, but all too rare right now in the NFL.
McVay faces veteran head coach Sean Payton of the New Orleans Saints this weekend, but Payton is one of the few more senior NFL coaches who has long been involved in analytics and he made a key and, unusual for the NFL, appointment in 2017 with Ryan Herman joining from the Dolphins as player-personnel analyst. Payton said from Day 1 and the moment they hired him, that Herman was the "smartest man in the building", since that day the Saints have gone 23-8 in regular season and should, as a minimum, be playing in their second straight Championship game ( see Super Bowl outright notes). A top NFL reporter was recently allowed full access to the Saints and was surprised by how much influence and input Herman was allowed and how democratic and open the whole coaching process was. Saints have their own version of Next Gen which tracks much of the same info, but in practice sessions and have used this for several seasons. Mickey Loomis is the executive vice president and General Manager of the Saints, like Payton he is 55yo, but says he has ben involved in analytics since 1983, "but that they were not called that at the time".Loomis said the team might take a look at a college cornerback with a lot of pass breakups for instance who doesn’t have many interceptions, one who would usually be passed over because of that, to see whether he's a player who can be coached up into something more, I could almost be listening to the Brentford (English Championship) DOF's.This is a very forward thinking organisation, where everyone with something to offer, will be given a voice.
Younger more data driven coaches and bigger analytics departments will become the norm , but some franchises are well ahead of the game and we will be tracking those in detail in the newsletter next season.
Good Luck.
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