NFL playoffs betting tip:
Jan 13, 2019
NFL playoffs:
Indianapolis Colts (6) @ Kansas City Chiefs(1)
Dallas Cowboys (4) @ LA Rams (2)
LA Chargers (5) @ New England Patriots (2)
Phialdelphia Eagles (6) @ New Orleans Saints (1)
Conference rankings for each team in brackets.
Last five years have seen nine of the ten #1 ranked teams progress, winning by between 4-21 points, 7 by a touchdown plus, including a prefect 6/6 in games against #6 ranked opponents, which both the Saints and Chiefs face this weekend.
I spoke about the make up of recent winners in the Super Bowl notes last week and have highlighted a further couple of lines this morning...............
I was with the Chargers on the road last week ....................
If we are going to get an "upset" I think it is most likely to come in Baltimore where the Ravens host the Chargers. Yes the Ravens have a super star defense and went to LA last month and won 22-10, but the Chargers were awful that day, Philip Rivers stunk the house out and for some reason, never looked happy from the very first play, but LA still got into contention, led briefy and looked set to do so again when the Ravens forced a game changing turnover. I don't think Rivers and co can play as badly again, not even close. The Chargers ended the regular season with the joint best record in the AFC and missed out so narrowly on not only a bye week , but the #1 ranking. The last four teams with similar numbers to have to play this wildcard weekend, all won and they look far better than any usual W/C team and are ranked top 12 in every offensive and defensive categories with no stand out weaknesses.
I have spoken often this season about StubHub not being a real NFL venue and any advantage for the Chargers there being minimal and it is no coincidence for me that they are 7-1 on the road, with four wins in the "east" and their only defeat coming to the Rams in W3 when their LA rival looked unbeatable and before the Chargers had found their stride. Included in those 7 road wins , were victories over Seahawks, Pittsburgh and Kansas City and few teams can boast close to that kind of road form. The Ravens have a top 2-3 defense and run heavy game, which is based around rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson's ability to move the ball on the ground, he can throw, but that is not what they are about and my issue is when they have to play catch up. They are ranked #23rd in net yards per pass and if LA get out to a decent lead, I am not sure Baltimore have the ability to get back into this, we know the Chargers do, having come back from big deficits to beat Seattle and KC (they looked down and out versus the Chiefs). I expect Rivers to be amongst the most motivated players this weekend, time is running out and he probably feels he deserves a big run at the Super Bowl, he was part of the 2004 draft, which saw three "name " QB's enter the NFL and be picked early, the other two were Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, those two have a pair of Super Bowl rings each, Rivers has not got close since 2007 and only made the post season once since 2009 until this year and it must pain him.
LA won 23-17, that sounds close and it was for about 30 seconds late in the 4th quarter, but in truth it was a comfortable and impressive win, with the Chargers allowing nothing at all offensively from the Ravens for three quarters and if they had made more of their opportunities, they could have been up by 30 points at that stage of the game. Ravens were a bit of a no show, but had been heavily tipped up as possible Super Bowl winners and were made to look ordinary, less than ordinary ! Chargers played well in the East again and will not fear what looks a substandard, compared to their own sky high standards, Patriots team. LA are very happy on the road and raise their game against stronger opponents, New England have a worse regular season record than the Chargers and have given up 28.75 points pg in the four games they have played versus other post season teams this season (three here at Gillette Stadium). Chargers have scored 23-29 in their six versus playoff teams, only coming up short in the first game with the Ravens, which was a blip and put right last week. They should score in that range (23-29) today and that will make it very difficult for NE to cover, giving how strong the Chargers are defensively and this is my upset of the round. Rivers has a better than expected cold weather record and is very good late season, he led the Chargers to a come from behind win in Kansas in tempertaures around freezing (with wind chill) four weeks ago. Chargers to win, very solid bet with the points.
2.5 units LA Chargers +3 points 2.24 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.
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