This is the Wild Card round, featuring eight of the 12 playoff contenders, the top two ranked teams in each Conference have a bye week, so will be better rested and play at home next week, which gives them a massive advantage. Since the Wild Card System began in 1970, only ten wild card teams have advanced all the way to the final, of those, six won the Super Bowl. Only four have done so by winning three games on the road ( all "name" teams in Pats, Steelers, Giants and Packers), it is not impossible to reproduce that feat, but super tough.

 

Between 2000 and 2012 #1 ranked teams had a difficult time of things, winning just two of the 12 Super Bowls, with #2 taking four, #3 just one, #4 three , #5 one and #6 two, however, it has been all about the #1 team subsequently, with the last five winners all being ranked the best coming into the post season and the #1 in each Conference meeting in four of those Super Bowl deciders.

We have a big weekend ahead with four very competitive games......

 

 

 

The only inter divisional game is the Colts - Texans match up, they split the two regular season games with Houston winning a 71 point shoot out by 3 in overtime, the Colts taking the second by the same margin late in the campaign. Texans led early in each, but Indy were the better team for much of both games, especially the most recent which was played here in Houston and in which the visitors picked up a whopping two yards per play more. Both teams have improved since early season, but it is the Colts who have impressed the most, upping their game against the stronger teams they have faced, bagelling the Cowboys and beating both the Texans and Titans on the road, the last of those was in Week17 and an "eliminator", so they have effectively been in playoff mode for a couple of weeks.

 

I had some major early season issues about Colts star quarterback Andrew Luck and especially his "nerve" and throwing arm and they were well justified IMO and it took several weeks for him to get back to speed, but he looks at or close to his best now and was named comeback player of the year. It is noteworthy that his two biggest passing days of the year both came against the Texans, with his team putting up a combined 914 yards of offense. They were without running back Marlon Mack in the game they lost out on, he had a TD in the win and the 22yo ran for 908 yards in his first season as a starter, all but 34 of those coming after W6. Texan are good versus the run, poor against the pass, which suits the colts and Mack will help the balance (which is always crucial) and to keep Texans "honest". It is actually a well balanced Indy team, with a better passing games than most wild card teams and a very good offensive line, maybe an all star one, more on that shortly. They are not too dissimilar in make up to the 2014 Colts who won two post season games.

 

Huge edge for the Colts with that OL, they were the only NFL team to allow fewer than 20 sacks during the regular season, and their opposing sack rate of 2.72% was the league’s best mark. Houston were the only team to allow more than 60 sacks, with an opposing sack rate of 10.92% , last in the league. Houston’s pass protection has gone backwards in recent weeks, as the Texans have allowed an average of 5.3 sacks per game with an opposing sack rate of 13.45% over the last three games. Indianapolis sacked Houston QB Deshaun Watson 12 times in the teams’ two meetings and if we replayed both games again, I suspect the Colts would be 2-0 and maybe win both by a comfortable margin. Having said that, games versus these two are always close, with 9 of the last 10 h2h meetings being decided by a touchdown or less, however that is no reason to put us off the "outsider", far from it, neither is the Colts series record having won 26 of the 34 match ups.

 

 

 

 

If we are going to get an "upset" I think it is most likely to come in Baltimore where the Ravens host the Chargers. Yes the Ravens have a super star defense and went to LA last month and won 22-10, but the Chargers were awful that day, Philip Rivers stunk the house out and for some reason, never looked happy from the very first play, but LA still got into contention, led briefy and looked set to do so again when the Ravens forced a game changing turnover. I don't think Rivers and co can play as badly again, not even close. The Chargers ended the regular season with the joint best record in the AFC and missed out so narrowly on not only a bye week , but the #1 ranking. The last four teams with similar numbers to have to play this wildcard weekend, all won and they look far better than any usual W/C team and are ranked top 12 in every offensive and defensive categories with no stand out weaknesses.

 

I have spoken often this season about StubHub not being a real NFL venue and any advantage for the Chargers there being minimal and it is no coincidence for me that they are 7-1 on the road, with four wins in the "east" and their only defeat coming to the Rams in W3 when their LA rival looked unbeatable and before the Chargers had found their stride. Included in those 7 road wins , were victories over Seahawks, Pittsburgh and Kansas City and few teams can boast close to that kind of road form. The Ravens have a top 2-3 defense and run heavy game, which is based around rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson's ability to move the ball on the ground, he can throw, but that is not what they are about and my issue is when they have to play catch up. They are ranked #23rd in net yards per pass and if LA get out to a decent lead, I am not sure Baltimore have the ability to get back into this, we know the Chargers do, having come back from big deficits to beat Seattle and KC (they looked down and out versus the Chiefs). I expect Rivers to be amongst the most motivated players this weekend, time is running out and he probably feels he deserves a big run at the Super Bowl, he was part of the 2004 draft, which saw three "name " QB's enter the NFL and be picked early, the other two were Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, those two have a pair of Super Bowl rings each, Rivers has not got close since 2007 and only made the post season once since 2009 until this year and it must pain him.