Premier League betting tip: Norwich City- Everton
Jun 24, 2020
Norwich City- Everton
We opposed City at home to Southampton on Friday night, speaking about the Canaries bad luck and timing with injuries, but also a lack of planning for them, highlighting some of their good points and there are some, but also how they were facing the two best bottom half of the table teams back to back in Saints and Everton .............
Saints are a net +63 on the season for ITB, +33 for the last eight games, xP gives the visitors an extra 4 point advantage and actually places Southampton 8th in the Premier League.
The Canaries are bottom the table, five point behind Villa and six (+ goal difference) from safety, it really feels like draw a line in the sand time for City if they are going to survive and they have to make the most of home games from here on in and probably need to take 3-4 points from this and a visit from Everton next weekend to have any chance. Good news is that both opponents are bottom half of the table, bad news is that they are the best of those and have top 8 numbers !
Norwich have the lowest shot conversion rate of any side in the Premier League this season, with the Canaries converting just 25 of their 335 efforts so far (7.5%).But it is more attempts than eight other teams, including three in the top ten and they have managed the same number on target as 7th placed Wolves. They are clearly creating plenty and not having much luck in front of goal and former Norwich striker Chris Sutton and television pundit called them "the best ever team to have been bottom of the Premier League" and there are plenty of numbers to back that up. They are pleasing on the eye and only team bottom in 16 years to average over 50% possession, but you cannot win games without scoring, he said with his stating the obvious comment of the day !
I was originally keen on City for today as their need is so great and they are clearly better than results indicate , but just turned on to listen to head coach Daniel Farke's press conference (Thursday lunchtime) and he started by saying that Grant Hanley, Sam Byram and Christoph Zimmermann were all out for the season, that leaves four senior defenders available, plus one returning from injury who Farke said he "knew" would not be up to playing 10 games in five weeks. City let two defenders go in January without replacing and before the latest injuries, were said to be planning to go with three CB's,now they couldn't even name three if they wanted to !
Saints have scored in 12/13 away games (2+ goals in six), only coming up short at Anfield and that was an incredible game as they lost 4-0 but were the better team in the first half, actually for an hour or more. They were denied what looked like a penalty immediately before the Liverpool opener and had 10 shots in the first half , the most the Reds have faced in the opening 45 minutes of a Premier League match at Anfield since hosting Chelsea in November 2014. Given those numbers and the City defensive issues, I suspect the host might need three goals to win this and that would require those low conversion rates to improve exponentially.
Saints won that 3-0 and the scoreline was not flattering, City were suspect at the back giving up 22 attempts, nine on target, 14 ITB with two BC's missed and toothless up top, with only one of 9 attempts on target and forcing just the single save. Playing rankings show that only one Saints player was ranked below the best City performer and it was a comprehensive defeat and one which the hosts can take little comfort from.
Everton did not play until Sunday, drawing 0-0 with Liverpool in the Merseyside derby and they created the better of the chances, the Toffees have a very experienced head coach in Carlo Ancelotti (pictured, yet it's him !) and he is already starting to build a talented team and given freedom in a couple of windows, possibly one to challenge for the Champions League spots. Ancelotti is like a breath of fresh air after recent managers at the club and he has brought the best out of players who were starting to stagnate like Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin.The Italian head coach must have looked at highlights of the Saints win and marvelled at the space in the City midfield and defence and if they allow Everton even half as much today, this can only end one way.
Everton are a net +143 ITB for the season and +46 for the last nine games over City and they have created the 5th most chances through the latter. The visitors are an additional 7 points better off with City on xP which ranks them 7th and pretty close to both Leicester City and Wolves.
2 units Everton -1 ball 2.71 asian line/Sportmarket.
Stay safe and good luck !
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