Premier League betting tip:Southampton - Arsenal
Jun 25, 2020
Premier League:Southampton - Arsenal
I don't really have a lot to add to my weekend notes for both teams, we sided with Southampton for their trip to Norwich on Friday .............
Saints are a net +63 on the season for ITB, +33 for the last eight games, xP gives the visitors an extra 4 point advantage and actually places Southampton 8th in the Premier League.
The Canaries are bottom the table, five point behind Villa and six (+ goal difference) from safety, it really feels like draw a line in the sand time for City if they are going to survive and they have to make the most of home games from here on in and probably need to take 3-4 points from this and a visit from Everton next weekend to have any chance. Good news is that both opponents are bottom half of the table, bad news is that they are the best of those and have top 8 numbers !
Norwich have the lowest shot conversion rate of any side in the Premier League this season, with the Canaries converting just 25 of their 335 efforts so far (7.5%).But it is more attempts than eight other teams, including three in the top ten and they have managed the same number on target as 7th placed Wolves. They are clearly creating plenty and not having much luck in front of goal and former Norwich striker Chris Sutton and television pundit called them "the best ever team to have been bottom of the Premier League" and there are plenty of numbers to back that up. They are pleasing on the eye and only team bottom in 16 years to average over 50% possession, but you cannot win games without scoring, he said with his stating the obvious comment of the day !
I was originally keen on City for today as their need is so great and they are clearly better than results indicate , but just turned on to listen to head coach Daniel Farke's press conference (Thursday lunchtime) and he started by saying that Grant Hanley, Sam Byram and Christoph Zimmermann were all out for the season, that leaves four senior defenders available, plus one returning from injury who Farke said he "knew" would not be up to playing 10 games in five weeks. City let two defenders go in January without replacing and before the latest injuries, were said to be planning to go with three CB's,now they couldn't even name three if they wanted to !
Saints have scored in 12/13 away games (2+ goals in six), only coming up short at Anfield and that was an incredible game as they lost 4-0 but were the better team in the first half, actually for an hour or more. They were denied what looked like a penalty immediately before the Liverpool opener and had 10 shots in the first half , the most the Reds have faced in the opening 45 minutes of a Premier League match at Anfield since hosting Chelsea in November 2014. Given those numbers and the City defensive issues, I suspect the host might need three goals to win this and that would require those low conversion rates to improve exponentially.
They won that 3-0 and on another day might have scored five goals. It was a very comprehensive win and performance, Saints are a well run club and offer the blueprint for long term sustainability in the Premier League .
Arsenal played the next day and lost 2-1 at Brighton ...............
The Gunners are a Big 6 team but have not played at that level this season and a lot of work needs to be done at the club in the next three transfer windows.
Entering the restart, they were six places and 11 points ahead of Brighton, but xP gives a 4 point edge to the Seagulls and they are +21 ITB for the season and +14 for the eight games prior to Wednesday night when the Gunners went to Manchester City, lost 3-0 and , as the old saying goes, were lucky to score nil ! We might also add and not to concede five or more !
I would normally say that playing a game of any description was a big advantage after such a long break, but as it was a soul destroying loss, with all the usual defensive issues still obvious to see and a terrible performance from David Luiz, who was then sent off, meaning that they were chasing shadows a man short for 50 minutes. I am not sure what edge that can give them, especially adding in the trip to Manchester and back, quick turnaround and now journey down to the South Coast, infact, it feels like the opposite. Brighton are two points above the drop zone and have had months to prepare solely for this and with a great h2h record in this series, taking 8 points from four unbeaten meetings. Until we see a reaction I do not think we should touch Arsenal with a bargepole and I just do not get the odds for today.
The Gunners led 1-0 but could not build on that and paid a heavy price conceding an injury time winner. They are playing a third road game inside 9 nine days after a very long break and there must be some very tired legs in their ranks. They also have their big FA Cup game at home to Sheffield United in three days time and that has to now be their priority. Saints have had an extra day to rest up and prepare and looked the better of these two last week, with very good fitness levels under Ralph Hasenhüttl who always makes that a priority. They are +42 net ITB over the last 9 starts and xP gives them a healthy 10 point advantage. I have to stick with Saints at present , especially with the Gunners having won just once in eight top flight trips to St Mary's.
1.75 units Southampton -0.25 ball asian line/Sportmarket.
Stay safe and good luck !
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