Premier League: what's on the line, plus updated ITB and xP for today's final round of games ...............
Jul 26, 2020
Arsenal- Watford
Arsenal
ITB : -58 (ranked 14th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 53-61
xP swing : -3 (Arsenal should be 3 points worse off)
What's at stake: Nothing for the Gunners now in the league, but they have the FA Cup final to play next Saturday.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers: Arsenal have created the third fewest ITB attempts.
Watford
ITB : -36 (ranked 10th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 56-65
xP swing : +10 (Watford should be 10 points better off)
What's at stake: Watford need to better Villa's result, whilst keeping an eye on Bournemouth.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers: The Hornets were a net +17 ITB for their two games before the heavy loss to Manchester City in midweek.
Burnley- Brighton
Burnley
ITB -57 (ranked 13th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 53-81 (ranked 18th for chances given up)
xP swing : -7
What's at stake: nothing much, the Clarets will finish 8th-10th.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers: no
Brighton
ITB : -51 (ranked 11th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 54-89 (ranked tied 19th for chances given up)
xP swing : +9
What's at stake: nothing, Brighton are safe now and will already be looking towards next season.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers: only Norwich gave up more chances ITB.
Chelsea -Wolverhampton
Chelsea
ITB : +189 (ranked 2nd)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 93-49
xP swing : +8
What's at stake: Chelsea need just one more point to be mathematically sure of a top-four finish, but even if they lose today, they will still qualify for the Champions League if Leicester are beaten by United.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers:no
Wolverhampton
ITB : +50 (ranked 6th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 55-41
xP swing : +3
What's at stake: With Leicester and Manchester United playing each other on the final day, Wolves can no longer finish in the top four.They can still mathematically finish fifth but would have to beat Chelsea and also require Leicester to lose with a huge goal difference swing.Wolves must match Tottenham's result with Crystal Palace to secure sixth place and guarantee a spot in the second round of Europa League qualifying for next season.That would become a group stage place if Chelsea win the FA Cup, with seventh taking the second round qualifying place in the Europa League. Wolves can still qualify for next season's Champions League by winning the Europa League , they drew 1-1 away to Olympiakos in the first leg of their last16 tie.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers:no
Crystal Palace- Tottenham Hotspur
Palace
ITB : -85 (ranked 16th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 50-76
xP swing : -6
What's at stake: nothing
Last three starts, any stand out numbers: no
Spurs
ITB : -68 (ranked 15th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 47-62 (ranked 16th for chances created)
xP swing : -10
What's at stake:Tottenham can finish as high as sixth with a win on the final day, if Wolves do not beat Chelsea. That would give them a place in the Europa League second round of qualifying next season - or a group stage place if Chelsea win the FA Cup.If Spurs finish seventh, they will qualify for the second round of Europa League qualifying if Chelsea are victorious in the FA Cup final.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers:Spurs have created the 4th lowest ITB chances .
Everton - Bournemouth
Everton
ITB : +32 (ranked 7th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 41-57 (ranked 19th for chances created)
xP swing : +6
What's at stake: nothing
Last three starts, any stand out numbers:They have created the fewest ITB chances.
Bournemouth
ITB : -116 (ranked 18th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 59-58 (ranked 9th)
xP swing : +3
What's at stake: Bournemouth need to win and hope that both Watford and Aston Villa lose
Last three starts, any stand out numbers: no
Leicester City- Manchester United
Leicester
ITB : +81 (ranked 4th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 73-47
xP swing : -3
What's at stake:Leicester must beat United on the final day to finish in the top four.If they fail to do so, they will still qualify for the Europa League group stage, with Wolves 15 goals worse off.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers:They are +16 for ITB attempts (4th best) despite losing two games heavily.
United
ITB : +63 (ranked 5th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 66-42
xP swing : +6
What's at stake:They only require a draw to finish in the top four. Alternatively , United could qualify for next season's Champions League by winning the Europa League. They lead 5-0 from the first leg of their last-16 tie with LASK.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers: created fewest ITB chances and gave up the most of any top six team.
Manchester City- Norwich City
Man City
ITB : +286 (ranked 1st)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 104-47
xP swing : +7
What's at stake: nothing, second place is guaranteed, but they play Real Madrid in 12 days and will surely want to take another result into that game.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers:City were a net +15 and +17 ITB in two of their starts.
Norwich
ITB : -138 (ranked 20th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 34-89
xP swing : +9
What's at stake: nothing, Norwich will be playing second tier football next season, so their last big day out for a while and they might as well enjoy it.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers: The Canaries only created 11 total ITB and gave up at least 14 in each game.
Newcastle United- Liverpool
Newcastle
ITB : -136 (ranked 19th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 53-74
xP swing : -13
What's at stake: nothing , United can only finish 13th or 14th and will remain in the higher position if Palace fail to win.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers:no
Liverpool
ITB : +187 (ranked 3rd)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 88-50
xP swing : -20
What's at stake: not much, Pool are champions.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers:no
Southampton- Sheffield United
Saints
ITB : -4 (ranked 9th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 75-59 (ranked 6th, and 4th for chances created)
xP swing : +6
What's at stake: not much, Saints will finish 11th or 12th.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers:a net +11 ITB, which is 6th best.
United
ITB : 0 (ranked 8th)
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 46-56 (ranked 17th for chances created)
xP swing : -6
What's at stake: can no longer qualify for European football next season, they will finish between 8th-10th which will still be a fantastic season.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers:no
West Ham United- Aston Villa
WHU
ITB : -53
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 72-61 (ranked 8th and 6th for chances created)
xP swing : +1
What's at stake: nothing, West Ham are safe, they will finish 15th or 16th.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers:no
Villa
ITB : -86
ITB created-conceded since restart (last 8 games): 42-50
xP swing : +2
What's at stake: Survival ! Villa need to equal Watford's result , whilst keeping an eye on Bournemouth at Everton.
Last three starts, any stand out numbers:Villa have only given up 19 ITB attempts (6th fewest).
The Premier League can have a maximum of seven teams qualify for European football.
Four teams will be in the Champions League, three in the Europa League. However, if a team finishing outside the top four wins the Champions League or Europa League they will be rewarded with a Champions League group stage spot for next season and one of the Europa League qualifying places will be given up (five teams qualifying for the Champions League, two for the Europa League).
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
Good luck !
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