Rivalry breeds excellence!

Feb 15, 2023
football betting tips -
Premier League:
 
Pre season I wrote notes on Brentford and Brighton ..........
 
Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford FC , Lee Dykes and new transfer markets.
 
Today, I would like to look at another EPL team , one who I feel will have a solid 22/23 and build on the good form they have shown across the last two seasons, albeit maybe not fully reflected in their respective finishing positions.
 
That team is Brighton & Hove Albion.
 
They finished 15th in 19/20, 16th in 20/21 and 9th last season and even that lofty top half of the table placing doesn't echo their ability and they have two big areas of potential improvement that they can focus on and which opens up the possibility of a European push.
 
The Seagulls finished where they would have expected in 19/20 in relation to xP, but should have scored an additional 8-9 goals, the season before last they were 5th for xP and a whopping 14 goals went "missing", in 21/22 they were circa 9 goals light and xP suggests that 7th would have been a fairer reflection of how they played across 38 games.
 
There is plenty to suggest there that top 7 is achievable and also that they should be able to add another 8-10 goals , they have not been able to find that double digit striker which is key and their top goalscorer has had 8 goals in each of the last two campaigns. However, this will surely be addressed at some stage , as Brighton are a very professionally run club, along the lines of Brentford (more of that comparison later) , who trade well in the transfer market and they are ahead of the curve in terms of analytics and thinking outside the box.
 
What they 100% need to do is win more games at home , they have not posted more than five wins on the South Coast since 18/19  and never more than seven since promotion in 16/17, averaging 4.7 wins and 17.7 goals across the last three seasons. I have spoken several times of the AmEx not being an intimidating venue and of a half hearted pre match rendition of "Sussex by the Sea" unlikely to strike fear into any visiting opponent. But again, huge possibilities to add another 6-9 points there and in upper mid table EPL terms, that is usually the difference between 11th and 6th place.
 
They have a rivalry of sorts with Brentford, mainly down to the two owners being former friends/colleagues, who do business in identical markets, but who now have a soured relationship , I have been told it is very bad and Brighton owner Tony Bloom would not go into the Brentford boardroom when the two clubs met at Lionel Road last season (the "villain" of the argument is pictured at Brentford). When two individuals are traders/ gamblers and don't like each other, yet operate in the same market, that is always going to result in fierce rivalry and there is huge competition for each to finish above the other and ,with the Bees looking to kick on for top ten, Brighton will be desperate to equal/better that. 
 
Bloom runs Star Lizard a sports betting consultancy/ syndicate, along similar lines to Smartodds which is owned by Brentford supremo Matthew Benham and each has access to analytics and data that even the Big 6 clubs with their vast resources cannot replicate, no other clubs are going to be employing 100+ people all geared to producing statistics with the purpose of improving performances in betting markets , but also, and just as importantly on and off the pitch at their clubs, where both are true supporters. Additionally, getting people in key positions at these clubs who "really understand" the numbers and their value. I read often about teams saying they are looking to "do a Brentford" , buy low and sell high, well if it was that easy every club in the world would do it, how about starting with a "genius" at the helm and then employing 100+ people to produce the data and then finding talent to implement it all and that before signing any of these "cheap" transfer targets, not so simple is it ? 
 
Anyway, Brighton and Bloom are similarly set up and head coach Graham Potter is much admired, but also probably knows his job at the AmEx is secure as long as the team is playing well (performing at good "expected" levels), almost regardless of results and Bloom and Benham know that it is more important long term to play well and underperform results wise than the reverse and that is kind of unique in modern football, if something can apply to 2-3 teams and be unique! It removes a lot of the pressure on Potter and Thomas Frank his Brentford counterpart and allows them to operate in a secure environment and to plan long term. Potter has improved Brighton and previous clubs season on season and is a great student of analytics, he holds a degree in social sciences and Masters in Leadership and Emotional Intelligence . The 47 yo has overseen a huge upgrade in his team defensively since he took over, at the back they are statistically almost twice as good despite selling two central defenders in Ben White and Dan Burn for large fees. Aside from the Big 6 and in spite of the lucrative television funding, all EPL teams remain selling clubs when the giants of the game come calling and the financial advantage they have over the average top flight side, is far greater than the mid table Premier League teams have over those in the Championship. To be able to continue to improve whilst selling key players is what will ultimately separate the men from the boys and could eventually turn "also rans" into achievers, is the big advantage that Brighton and Brentford have over their competitors. Whilst it gets harder to find hidden gems in the transfer market when you are looking for them to slot into the Premier League as opposed to the Championship, it is possible,as long as you are never willing to accept the status quo and that what has "always worked" will continue to do so, as it will not . 
 
The Seagulls have also improved by 20-25% offensively since Potter's arrival despite the goal shortfall and it is hard for me to see too much drop off from last season's top half finish, but with a realistic chance to improve by those 6-9 points. They have already sold Yves Bissouma to Tottenham for decent money, but have bought two highly promising youngsters, one from Denmark (Simon Adingra) and the other from Paraguay (Julio Enciso) for circa 20m euros total. They will hope to retain LWB Marc Cucurella for at least one more season, he is already being tracked by Big 6 clubs, but has only been at the AmEx for 12 months and for Brighton and Brentford, they know that best transfer value/profit is usually achieved after the second season and he could be worth an extra 25-30m this time next year. But it is the signing of Enciso I want to touch upon, as it is an example of looking at other markets post Brexit and this is something I discussed last summer in regard to Brentford and Lee Dykes and an interview the then director of player recruitment gave to The Athletic and I actually chose to highlight a few lines relating to these different markets, when Brighton got a mention ..............
 
This fits owner Benham’s holistic approach. Brentford’s rise is about social intelligence as well as data. Benham wants Brentford to out-think competitors, not out-spend them. As Dykes says: “It’s Matthew’s way of thinking. We were one of the first clubs to employ a throw-in coach, a set-piece coach, we were the first to employ a sleep coach. We teach young players how to cook. We have all these things that we plough into individual development.”

Preparing for and reacting to Brexit has also occupied Benham’s management team and if there are recruitment trends caused by the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, one will be a new emphasis on domestic signings, another will be a growth in South America’s presence in the Premier League. Benham also owns FC Midtjylland in Denmark. Dykes is their head of recruitment too. It means he is fully aware of differing regulations.

“It’s been huge,” he says of Brexit. “But we were prepared for it. Fin Stevens and Aaron Pressley, players we recruited for the B team, might have been Europeans or Scandinavians before, but there’s been a shift with GBE — Governing Body Endorsement. A lot of under-valued markets have been closed off by GBE. In the last few weeks, they’ve relaxed it a bit with under-21s.

“But as the EU closes, we can go to South America and Asia. There’s an opportunity and we’ve seen players in Uruguay. You’ve just seen Yerson Mosquera join Wolves for £4.5 million. Twelve months ago, we could have only considered them for Midtjylland. Now he can go to England. Moises Caicedo, another one, has gone to Brighton. They’re from Colombia and Ecuador, Midtjylland have just signed Brazilian midfielder Charles from Ceara in Fortaleza."
 
In regard to signing CONMEBOL talent, I would say that Brighton were a little ahead of Brentford right now and all credit to them for that , but the two are probably two+ years ahead of most other EPL clubs and I do know that the Bees made a couple of offers on South American players in the last transfer window. By the way, Manchester United tried to lure Dykes away from Brentford this month and made him an offer, but he opted to remain in West London (who wouldn't ?) and was promoted to Technical Director yesterday, so the approach was good for him on a personal level.
 
The big clubs can come calling for these backroom staff who have super impressive CV's, Dan Ashworth left Brighton to take the Newcastle United Saudi riyal in February, but these guys leave without the huge backing of Star Lizard or Smartodds and however smart they are, it is a very different scenario going virtually cold turkey and starting from scratch, or with a small team of analysts.
 
I like the chances of Brighton in the "best of the rest" markets, it is a little dangerous betting anything at this stage of the off season and they could sell Cucurella too, but there will be contingency plans and "no one" had heard of the LWB 12 months ago and, the Seagulls and Bees almost always replace with better. But these notes are of interest with regard to how the two clubs operate and the type of player we will see coming into the EPL on a more regular basis and Brighton are just worthy of discussion and with significant improvement potential .
 
I have seen circa 10.0 for Brighton without the Big 6 ( Liverpool, City, United, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal) and anything @ 8.0 + offers decent value IMO .
 
 

Brentford:

 

Brentford won too, which of course, is the big news of the day and "officially" (deal was actually completed on Friday) signed a right back in 20yo Aaron Hickey from Bologna for a club record fee. They have been chasing a RB for 12 months+ and finally signed a quality replacement for Henrik Dalsgaard ,I understand that they are close to two other deals for similar money and the Bees have plenty of profit from last season "burning a hole in their pocket". However, they will continue to "only" buy players who are better than they already have and who will have re-sale value /profit in them.
 
It looks very much (99.9%) that two more deals were done yesterday with 21yo Keane Lewis-Potter joining from Hull City for a big fee and former Lazio goalkeeper Thomas Strakosha choosing the Bees over a whole host of other EPL teams. I am rather sure that means that current keeper David Raya will leave in one of the next two windows, probably in January, after the World Cup, when you suspect his value will be at its highest, my friend , who tends to know what is going on, says "no chance" of him leaving this summer. Brentford are starting to look strong, they are adding cover for every position and almost every big name is tied down to a long contract and there has been almost no talk of anyone senior leaving, but the club always get the buying done before selling. I understand that incoming business is far from done in any case, exciting times ahead and 5.50-6.0 for a top half finish feels huge, I have bet what I can at the higher quote, but odds probably won't change much and we can look in more detail at the EPL before the season starts. 
 

 

Update just before the season started :

 

I am quite pleased with those notes after re-reading them this morning, but a quick look at what has happened since posting them ........ 

 

Brentford: The Bees went on a pre-season tour to Germany and played three games , drawing one and losing two , the last defeat was 4-0 to Wolfsburg and a bit of a horror show (nothing much wrong with the other two performances). I think we can forgive them that and they have played three games back in the UK and won them all, beating Brighton 1-0, Arsenal 2-1 and Real Betis 1-0 , in the latter they fielded what is likely to be their starting 11 for the opening game of the season and looked really sharp.There is no Christian Eriksen now, but the three players mentioned above in KLP, Hinkley and Strakosha all signed, along with a very experienced CB in Ben Mee and long time readers will know that I already held him in high regard and wrote multiple times about how important he was to Burnley. That was needed as central defenders Kristoffer Ajer and Ethan Pinnock both come into the season injured, update is that Ajer should be back before the end of this month, but Pinnock will be out for six months , possibly longer, but Mee is a direct and quality replacement. They look close to another major signing, most likely Mikkel Damsgaard from Sampdoria, the two clubs are very close to agreeing a fee, we do love a Dane! 

 

No one else of note has left and Josh DaSiva finally looks fit again after basically a  year out, Eriksen said he was stunned how gifted JDS was and praise cannot come much higher than that and Josh could take the EPL by storm if playing to his potential and it is like signing a £40m+ goal scoring midfielder . I think the five subs rule suits Brentford and their tactical nous on the sidelines and analysis department (who have input through the game), fluidity from the bench and across the squad, will change a lot of games.Bryan Mbeumo and Yoanne Wissa look really sharp right now.  The latter is probably fully fit for the first time since joining (missed his pre-season last year and then got COVID) , he scored 7 goals (xG of only 3.5) in his debut campaign despite playing just 1,273 minutes, he has been taking players on in pre-season, something we did not see last season, he can finish with either foot and is very dangerous cutting in from that left flank.Bryan hit the woodwork so many times last season it became a bit of a joke and he had just 4 goals from an xG of almost 10, he might easily have scored 12 or more , his all round game is great, he has looked good and is scoring in warm up games and he could have a huge season. Rico Henry (LB) and Christian Norgaard (DM) are top five in their position in the EPL in my opinion, Ajer if he stays injury free will be CB for a Big 6 club for "certain", David Raya is already a  Spanish international goalkeeper whilst still some way off his peak and will move to a "big club" soon and it all feels pretty good. Having dismissed (!) second season syndrome as a "thing", I expect them to go well and will be amazed if they get involved in the relegation scrap and a 8th-13th place finish seems far more likely. They were top 8 for xP last season , or better, depending on what site you think is most accurate, what you cannot argue with is that they were one of just eight teams with a positive seasonal xGD and good value with................

 

2.5 units Brentford to finish top half of the table @ 5.50 general quote.

 

Quick update today:

 

Both teams have featured heavily all season, the Bees in most of their games and I have written multiple times about the two clubs being the best run in world football and looking at the league table and given their budgets in respect to other teams and their unbelievable recruitment policies, few people with even a basic understanding of the game are going to now disagree with that.

 

2022/23 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Arsenal 21 16 3 2 46 18 +28 51 XLWW 10 8 2 0 26 11 11 8 1 2 20 7
  2   Manchester City 22 15 3 4 56 22 +34 48 WLWW 12 10 1 1 41 13 10 5 2 3 15 9
  3   Manchester United 23 14 4 5 38 28 +10 46 WXWL 11 8 2 1 21 8 12 6 2 4 17 20
  4   Newcastle United 22 10 11 1 35 13 +22 41 XXOW 11 6 5 0 19 6 11 4 6 1 16 7
  5   Tottenham Hotspur 23 12 3 8 42 35 +7 39 LWWL 11 7 0 4 22 15 12 5 3 4 20 20
  6   Brighton & HA 21 10 5 6 39 28 +11 35 XWXW 10 5 2 3 17 10 11 5 3 3 22 18
  7 1 Fulham 23 10 5 8 34 30 +4 35 WOLL 12 6 3 3 20 16 11 4 2 5 14 14
  8 1 Brentford 22 8 10 4 36 29 +7 34 XWOW 11 6 4 1 23 10 11 2 6 3 13 19
  9 1 Liverpool 21 9 5 7 36 28 +8 32 WLOL 11 7 3 1 25 9 10 2 2 6 11 19
  10 1 Chelsea 22 8 7 7 23 22 +1 31 XOOW 10 5 3 2 13 7 12 3 4 5 10 15
  11   Aston Villa 22 8 4 10 26 34 -8 28 LLWW 11 5 2 4 17 15 11 3 2 6 9 19

 

The market without the Big Six is now priced at circa 1.28 Newcastle, 3.75 Brighton and 41.0+ anyone else (The Bees are actually third favourite) , good value with our bet on the Seagulls, they trail United by six points but do have a game in hand, so all is not lost and a great bet regardless of outcome.

 

XP sees the trio as .......

4th Newcastle 40 points 

5th Brighton 38 pts

6th Brentford 36 pts

 

Brentford are now unbeaten in ten starts and are priced at circa 1.36 for a top half finish, so if you are on that  @ 5.50-6.0  you have done well and you can cover or bet them to be bottom half @ 3.0 should you wish!

 

The Bees next nine starts are .......

 

Palace Home

Fulham Home

Everton Away

Southampton Away

Leicester Home

Brighton Away

Newcastle Home

Wolves Away

Villa Home

 

Hard to be too upset about that run of games, no Big 6 team to play and they are at home to two of the only three top half of the table teams they face . They play the two favourites for top 6 and hard to see how they still be 40-1 (41.0) in that without the big 6 market, or 14-1 (15.0) to finish top 6 when they travel to the first,  Brighton on April 1st (subject to change), if they continue to play at their current level. 

 

Excluding the above bet to finish top half, I have previewed 18 of Brentford's 22 games this season, putting up 20 bets, stakes 39.25, returns 69.0 , ROI 75.8% and I mention that to highlight the benefits of knowing one team so well and seeing so many games live . You see so much more at a game as opposed to on television and I have seen 40+ EPL games live in the last 18 months, maybe 10 in my life prior to that, usually watching Championship and below and the benefits are clear , not just with the Bees, but EPL games in general. The same was true of the Championship prior to promotion and long term readers with long memories will also know that about League 1. It pays to watch games live!

 

BTW Chelsea also tried to sign Lee Dykes in September and probably should have done ! They had already signed Graham Potter and all his coaching staff from Brighton and these clubs are going to continue to be "raided", but always have a Plan B , C and D and succession planning in place. Arsenal poached the Bees goalkeeper coach Inaki Cana who I understand is very influential at the Gunners, beyond working with the keepers and former Brentford set piece coach Nicolas Jover (via Manchester City) and these massive clubs have one eye on Brighton and Brentford all the time and with good reason

 

 

Good luck!

 

 

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Country: 
England
Sport: 
Football
Competition: 
English Premier League
Football Teams: 
Brentford
Brighton & Hove Albion

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