Serie A betting tip : Benevento- AS Roma
Feb 21, 2021
Serie A : Benevento- AS Roma
Last weekend I opposed Benevento in the first half away to Bologna............
Not much between these two in terms of ITB and BC stats and they are level on points, but xP gives the host a six point edge and they are definitely the bigger more established club, they have played the 9th most seasons in the top flight, for Benevento, this is only their second ever and they were relegated after the first. The visitors have conceded 15 goals in their last five starts and are weakened today with suspensions to Riccardo Improta (lost both games in which he has played 15 minutes or less and by the same 5-2 scoreline !) and Artur Ionita (ever present) who would have both played in a midfield three. Bologna are the #7 ranked first half home team winning 50% of games here and Benevento have lost 6/10 on the road before the break. The visitors have also conceded 16 goals in the first 30 minutes of all games and only basement club Crotone have allowed more. Any value is surely with the hosts early.
The home side led 1-0 at the break, the game finished 1-1 which is kind of perfect ! That was the 6th Benevento game in 7 starts which had seen both teams score and I feel pretty sure that we will see a 7th today, with Roma carrying a lot of defensive injuries into this game. The Wolves also desperately need the three points to retain their buffer over Lazio and to edge closer to one or both of the two Milan clubs who meet at the San Siro this afternoon. It has been a good week for Roma, they beat a decent Udinese side very easily last weekend and a 2-0 win in the Europa League in the away game with Sporting Braga makes the upcoming second leg almost meaningless and they can give this their full attention. Since the turn of the year they are a net +33 ITB and +24 for BC's over Benevento, but given their defensive issues today, that they have conceded an eye-popping 22 games in their last ten Serie A away starts ( still won 3-1 at Crotone and Genoa and 5-1 at Bologna in that sequence) and that Benevento pose a big threat offensively for a bottom six team in Italy, this should see action at both ends. The last two h2h meetings including the reverse fixture this season have both ended 5-2 as unlikely as that sounds and the hat-trick is priced at up to 100-1 , In that earlier season meeting, there were also five BC's missed, including two for Benevento.
Roma have played six games this season in which both teams have scored 2+ goals , conceded at least twice in 12 and taken part in four which produced 6+ goals (winning three), all from just 22 league starts. Eight of their last 26 (30.77%) league games have seen 5+ goals and that bare stat alone suggests value in 4.0-4.20 for "over" 4.5 this evening.
Any number of high scoring options appeal.
2 units Roma to win and both teams to score 2.70-2.80 general quote.......2.90 Pinnacle.
Good luck !
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