There is no need to always think outside the box ........... you might miss something important and obvious ...........
Nov 19, 2019
There is no need to always think outside the box .......................
If you have been tracking the website recently you will have noticed a lot of reference to "inside the box" (ITB) numbers, this is exclusive to clubgowi, if you see them elsewhere at present the data or idea has been stolen !
I have updated all seven of our main "winter" leagues this week for subscribers , that's Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Ligue 2 , Serie A, La Liga, Premier League and Championship and you can view the content from Spain below.
That comes along with an explanation, a look at how they compare to expected points /goals and why I think they are valuable.These numbers have multi uses, but I have given a couple of examples of how they could be used to highlight good long term trading possibilities, in addition to round by round betting.
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
ITB: inside the box:
La Liga: Through 13 rounds.
*Barcelona +29 (+16)
*Real Madrid +50 (+21)
Atletico + 45 (+22)
Sevilla + 49 (+5)
Real Sociedad + 2 (+14)
Bilbao +17 (+13)
Getafe + 29 (+6)
Granada -13 (-5)
Valencia -32 (-17)
Osasuna +14 (+15)
Villarreal +19 (-7)
Levante -68 (-33)
Valladolid -48 (-7)
Alaves -15 (+4)
Eibar +7 (+2)
Mallorca -26 (-10)
Betis -45 (-17)
Celta -30 (-6)
Espanyol +5 (+7)
Leganes +11 (-7)
* played 12 games
Season net ITB numbers alongside each team, for example, Barcelona have created 90, given up 61 (90-61 =+29). Figures after that in brackets relate to the last five games only.
Sociedad's numbers are low for a top 5 team , but are on the up through the last five starts.
Granada and especially Valencia are way behind where teams in 8th and 9th place respectively should be, 10th placed Osasuna's numbers are better and +15 for their last five is only bettered by the top 3.
Levante have had a couple of surprise results in the last month, but they and Valladolid are producing league worst numbers and look set to slip down the table at some stage.
Eibar, Espanyol and Leganes should all be further up the table.
Within those last five game numbers, Granada have recorded a La Liga low 22 attempts ITB (they have also averaged just 4.75 per game since Week 2), Levante 60 and Betis 55 have conceded the most, third highest was Valladolid with 46, so big defensive concerns with those two.
Betis 93, Sevilla and Levante both 87 and Alaves 80 have had the five games with the most attempts total .
Looking at the full season: Levante have allowed double digit (10+) ITB attempts against them in 10/13 starts, Valladolid have averaged just 5.08 on opponent's goal, never registering more than 8.
Really impressed by the Getafe numbers, they have only allowed more than 7 once and are a combined 16-1 in their last two starts, one of which game against Osasuna who averaged 10 on their opponent through their previous six starts , all the more so as they have also been involved in the Europa League . They have been dismissed as "dirty" and a long ball team by many, but they were joint 5th last season and picked up 42 points from Matchday 14 onwards and regardless of how they play, it is clear teams struggle to deal with it and they look to be going forward not backwards and another high finish is on the cards. Their next five games and final starts of 2019 are against teams in the bottom half of the table currently and current odds as high as 5.0 for top 6 and 21.0 for top 4 might look really good value by the Christmas break.
Valencia are priced at circa 7.0 to finish bottom half, they probably won't, but are they are 86% chance not to ? They are currently 6th but only 3 points ahead of the team in 13th, their -32 ITB numbers are not good, they are heavily involved in the Champions League, tied on 7 points with Chelsea and Ajax, so two huge games ahead and a guarantee of Europe League involvement anyway. They travel to Betis next weekend ahead of the vital home game with Chelsea, then play the derby with Villarreal a few days after, they host Real Madrid directly after the trip to Amsterdam. Again, easy to see those odds dropping before the mini Christmas break, given the difficulty of games, other priorities and those poor ITB numbers.
Anyway, a couple of ways you could choose to use ITB numbers, but they are many others.
XP puts the top of the table like this .....
Atletico 28 pts
Real Madrid 25
Villarreal 25
Barcelona 22
Sevilla 22
Sociedad 22
Osasuna 19
Getafe 18
lower down sees ....
13th Leganes 15 pts
15th Valladolid 14
16th Levante 14
18th Espanyol 13
19th Mallorca 13
20th Eibar 12
Points rounded up/down to the nearest whole number. Barce and Real Madrid with a game in hand.
Agreement regarding Villa and Osasuna , XP have things very tight at the bottom, their numbers do not tally with mine regarding Eibar, but they agree Leganes/ Espanyol and Valladolid /Levante should all be MUCH closer to each other and maybe in reverse positions.
I think the real value of ITB might be once the numbers start to turn through a 4-5 week period, as that might not always be reflected immediately in results, so we will have an edge "knowing" when teams are starting to up their game OR are falling into bad habits, which is just as valuable.
I like expected goals/points numbers too, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.
Good Luck.
We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Country:
Sport:
Competition: