Third season syndrome ............
May 30, 2023
Third season syndrome, is that a thing!
Last season I wrote about second season syndrome and asked if that "was a thing" ?..........We often read about it and I am myself guilty of frequently referring to that "always difficult second season" following promotion. However, it is hard to make a strong case for that being so in the EPL, I have taken special interest, for obvious (Brentford) reasons, and looked at the last 36 promoted teams ( up to 19/20). 14 were relegated in season 1, "just" 5 in season 2 and, in that second campaign, three actually qualified for Europe and one won the title! Of the 22 teams to play that second season, 5 went down, but half (11) finished top 11 , including four who were top 7. For my daily stating the obvious comment, I am going to say that it is the first season which is the toughest and the second gives teams who are prepared to be brave, the chance to kick on and for that increased spending power to kick in. It is a relatively small sample size of course, but feels like another case where people are happy to accept something as fact if they hear it often enough, without looking at the numbers.
Brentford kept that trend going with a 9th place finish, but with 59 points which would have got them into Europe in four of the five previous seasons. They also finished closer in terms of points won to Newcastle United in 4th, than to Crystal Palace in 11th.
In 2023/24 we will have three second season teams in Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest and if those numbers hold up we should see two survive, one battle relegation and another at least push for European football. That is for another day and something I definitely want to look at and one of that trio will definitely feature in my preseason notes.
For today, I want to push it a step further and see how teams have done in their third season in the top flight. Teams who make it to year 3 are not yet exactly established, but will have received or can plan for a minimum of £400m of additional income ( broadcasting revenue and potential parachute payments), as opposed to circa £20-£25m total had they remained in the second tier with no parachute payments. It is a king's ransom for most clubs and spent wisely, can, not only upgrade the depth and strength of the playing staff, but reduce debt, improve the stadium and transform training centres and pitches. Of course, not all clubs go down that route, some feel almost forced to overspend in an attempt to survive, ditch the players that got them there and pay inflated salaries for new signings who can often feel like mercenaries and do not understand the culture of the club or town/city. In some cases increasing and not reducing the debt that most clubs come into the EPL carrying.
Since 2012/13, 17 teams have played a third season following promotion in the Premier League, two were relegated (11.76%), two finished top 8 (11.76%) and the other 13 (over 76%) finished in a very small window of 12th-16th place. Next season we have another set to try and avoid the fate of Leeds United this season and that is , yes, you guessed correctly, Brentford!
The Bees are ridiculously well run, they survived comfortably in Year 1 and recorded an EBITDA of £52.5m and profit of £30m (second most in the EPL) and we can expect Y2 to be similar. They have reduced debt , which was "soft debt" (interest free) in any case, to £62m (amongst the lowest in the EPL) and will , I assume, do so again. They have a , still new, debt free stadium and a completely revamped training centre with plans to develop this into "state of the art" within 4-5 years. The Bees have a much admired squad, with five first team regulars aged 20-23 and eight valued at £40m + each, despite being assembled on a relative shoestring and with a strict wage structure (lowest in the EPL). Only Brighton can make a case for a stronger recruitment policy and we could argue all day about which is better , suffice to say it is easier to discuss who is third best! It will be fun to see who they sign this summer, Mark Flekken the Freiburg and Netherlands goalkeeper looks a done deal awaiting a July 1st announcement and he will fill the void left by David Raya who looks set to join a Big 6 club and it is Brentford policy to always sign, before selling.
If we take those numbers on trust, Brentford have the same chance to finish top 8 as they do bottom three and I know which I feel is more likely, but that will surprise no one! Suffice to say for today that third year teams have an 88%+ chance to survive and that "third season syndrome" is not a thing!
Good luck!
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