This is one of those days which we could easily skip, but mindful that this is a newsletter, I feel obliged to say something whenever possible, so a few words about two games taking place today.

 

 

This is all , or mostly, about the centre backs, we spoke over Christmas about how much better Burnley were with their first choice pairing back in tandem and how crucial the return of Ben Mee had been. The Clarets started the season struggling defensively and conceded three or more goals in three of their opening six matches, but they have allowed just four in their last seven starts. However, they have scored just nine all season and that is the lowest amongst the 92 Football League clubs.

 

Liverpool's issues at CB have been well documented and on Sunday they again started with two midfielders in central defence, it feels like the lack of goals at the other end of the pitch have come from a need/desire to offer the defence greater protection and they have struggled to score, going three league games without a goal for the first time since 2005 ! CB Joel Matip has returned to training this week and is available if Jurgen Klopp decides to call upon him. But it remains true that Mane, Salah and Firmino are misfiring at the other end of the pitch.

 

However, this is suddenly a big game for the Reds, failure to win is going to leave them 3-5 points behind three teams and it is a huge fall off from last season when they were 16 points clear after 19 games, the halfway stage, which we will reach this evening. We should also remember that they are unbeaten in 69 home league games , taking 178 points from a possible 204 at Anfield and the 0-0 draw with Manchester United at the weekend was the first time that they had failed to score as host since October 2018.

 

Liverpool will probably find a way to win, but it might take time and is likely to be close, Klopp's side have struggled to break down massed defences in recent starts and Burnley will put up stiff resistance and be as disciplined as any team that the Reds have faced over the last month. The Clarets have drawn on 2/4 visits to Anfield and scored in all four, I would not rule out the home win with BTS, but feel best value is with the half time draw. Two of those last four h2h meetings at Anfield have been all square at the break , Liverpool have led at HT in only two of their last seven and Burnley trailed in just two of eight .

 

La Liga: Eibar- Atlético Madrid

 

What a season this is turning out to be for Atlético, they are taking full advantage of the troubles at Real Madrid and Barcelona and hold a four point lead at the top of the table, with this, one of two games in hand. They have seven win-able games upcoming before the restart of Champions League action and they could go a long way towards securing just a second title in 25 years with a continued ruthless approach over the next month. The board are desperately trying to tie Diego Simeone down with a contract extension after it was long felt this would be his final season at the club . They are playing expansive football currently and they tried this more attacking approach early last season, but it didn't quite produce the dividends expected, this time it feels like they have the correct personnel and the signing of Luis Suarez also sent out the right message and the team has played higher up the pitch and a much "shorter" game. Simeone will not admit as much, but this feels like a plan two years in the making and the depth that the club has assembled makes them a very big player and capable of pushing for the La Liga/ Champions League double. They had circa £300m worth of talent on the bench last week for the 2-0 win over Sevilla, including Felix, Niguez and Lodi and this is a club with the potential to grow week on week between now and May. They play Chelsea in the CL round of 16 and the Blues look out classed on current form and are going to have to find some rapid improvement to progress.

Atlético have been in five European finals in the last 12 season, winning all three in the Europa League, losing both (unluckily) to Real Madrid (of all teams) in the Champions League, the first of which was in 2013-14, the only other season in recent memory that they won La Liga and it is that team that all Atléti sides of the future will be compared to, but this current squad looks better, with more depth and different ways to play and I think big lessons were learned from last season.   So many of the big teams look to have regressed and/or are struggling with the short off season and condensed 20-21 campaign, but it feels like it has played into the hands of Atletico and odds of 19.0 to win the Champions League feel too big.

Eibar have won just 1/9 at home and have conceded 8 goals in their last 3 starts, two of which came versus lower league opposition. They have traditionally struggled big time against the giants of Spanish football and had lost five in a row at home to Atleti scoring just one goal in the process, before a 2-0 win in this fixture last season. That game was almost exactly a year ago (368 days) and I doubt it has been forgotten by Atletico and certainly not Simeone, they had 3 of the 4 BC's that day and were wasteful. Tonight Atletico must do without Kieran Trippier and Koke, who are both suspended but will otherwise line up as strong as possible and look to build on the performance against Sevilla.

Some crazy stats for Eibar, they have a 15-18 goal difference, but are 7-0 (scored-conceded) between the 46th- 60th minute, so are clearly making some good half time adjustments, but they do not last ! They have also conceded 75% of all home goals in the opening 45 minutes and Atletico have won their last four away starts to bottom half of the table teams, leading 1-0 at half time in three.

 

Not a great day to get overly involved, but best I can suggest is Liverpool HT draw and Atletico to lead 1-0 at the break.

 

1 unit Liverpool- Burney half time draw 2.99 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

1 unit Atletico Madrid -0.5 ball half time betting 2.59 asian line/Sportmarket.