Time to think inside the box ............

football betting tips -
 
I have just sent out today's subscriber newsletter in which I updated ITB stats for Ligue 2 and previewed seven games total from the FA Cup and top two leagues in France and you can read the former below.................
 
 
Ligue 2: ITB stats through 22 rounds
 
 
Lorient +44 (50-31) 24-17
Lens +37 ( 36-20) 19-19
Ajaccio +2 (34-35) 29-13
Troyes +36 (28-33)  25-17
Clermont +7 (28-31) 17-26
Le Havre +28 (40-30) 13-11
Valenciennes -18 (36-35) 17-22
Guingamp +40 (36-32) 21-17
Nancy +28 (38-33)15-17
Grenoble +7 (34-35) 19-16
Sochaux +5 (28-37) 21-16
Auxerre +20 (32-30) 17-16
Chateauroux -39 (33-54)  20-18
Caen -19 (29-32) 16-30
Chambly -24 (31-31)15-20
Rodez -27 (41-29) 18-20
Le Mans -7 (38-35) 18-20
Niort -72 (28-36) 14-25
Paris FC -57 (17-39) 24-21
Orleans +9 (34-33) 19-20
 
Net ITB numbers for the season directly alongside each team, figures at the end of each line are ITB numbers (created-conceded) for the last three games, in brackets are the same for the five games preceding those .
 
A quick look at those last eight game numbers will tell you that match ups in Ligue 2 tend to be close, but that only means we should take more notice of those at the extreme end(s).
 
All teams have played 22 games and numbers do not include last night's Grenoble-Le Havre fixture which was the first round of 23 contest.
 
As always, I will add that these are only ever starting points and what we are looking for are teams who are improving , or in decline, especially when that has not yet been fully reflected in results. For example Troyes, I was big on them in early season when numbers suggested they might be the best team in Ligue 2, but gave warnings about them in the last two sets of ITB reports when their numbers tailed off badly, they have now lost three in a row, but what I would now say is that their totals for those three games are better than they "should" be and maybe they can come good again, possibly already are. Not backing them today in a tough game at Lens , but will try and get a good look at them with a view to the next couple of rounds.
 
Glossary:
 
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
 
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
 
 
Good Luck.

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