Today's early Thanksgiving Day NFL games..........The Usual Suspects are hosting!
Nov 23, 2023
Green Bay Packers @ Detriot Lions
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
The Lions and Cowboys always host a Thanksgiving day game, and since 2006 there have been three games played on this family day with the third shared amongst the other NFL teams.
Since the switch to the triple header, the Lions have won just four of their 17 games, all came between 2013-16 since when "normal service" has resumed. It is quite an odd record, as Ford Field has weird dimensions, lay out and acoustics which favour the host, but not only have they lost 76.47% since the switch to a three game schedule, but 9 of the 13 losses have been by a touchdown or more and seven were double digit defeats.
The Cowboys have also not overly enjoyed these recent Thanksgiving Day home games, though the same 17 games they are a significantly better than Detroit
9-8, but won the first four, so are 5-8 subsequently and their last five wins have come by 1-7-5-8-8 points, so backing the opposition getting the double digit points that the Commanders start with today, would have resulted in 14 straight winners .
There are huge holiday crowds viewing these games on television, last season a record 138 million viewers watched across the three games, dwarfing the previous high of 126m and I am not saying that there is anything "wrong" with these games, but the NFL do not want too many blow out games on this day with viewers switching off and teams do not want to be humiliated with everyone they know, or have ever known watching, and the close nature, especially of the second game, which must be the most viewed, given the start time, therefore, makes sense.
I am sticking with the "numbers". The Packers get almost a TD start and battled hard last weekend for us ( see Saturday's email) and earned the win they wanted over the Chargers, they have won on 4/8 visits and the last three losses have been by 6-7-8 points and they should be in contention . Also, the Lions could not stop the run in a 31-26 win over the Bears on Sunday and were actually outplayed and, in stark contrast to the scoreline, QB Jared Goff was having a horror show for 50 of the 60 minutes and threw three awful interceptions.
The Cowboys have a bit of a flat track bully vibe, all seven wins have come against teams with a losing record, but they have lost to the two winning teams they have played and also to the 2-9 Cardinals and were taken close by the 4-6 Chargers and I am not sure they are quite as good as their record suggests . The Commanders have tended to step up against strong teams and have beaten the Broncos and taken the 6-4 Seattle Seahawks close (3 pts), both on the road and the 9-1 Eagles twice, both home and away to 7 and 3 points. This is their 4th Thanksgiving Day visit to Dallas in eight seasons and they won one big (25 points) and lost the other two by 5 and 8 points.
2 units Green Bay Packers +6.5 points 2.32 Pinnacle/Vegas Line.
3 units Washington Commanders +10.5 points 2.2 Pinnacle/Vegas Line.
Good luck!
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