Atalanta have slipped to 5th and need to win this to stay in top 4 contention, they might be a little distracted as they have their Champions League second leg game with Real Madrid on Tuesday, however,  surely three points today are seen not only as essential for the league, but a momentum boost for the upcoming game . The hosts have conceded in their last 7 at home and in 23/26 home starts, giving up two or more goals in 11 (42.31%). Spezia have lost back to back away games 3-0 to Juventus and Fiorentina , but scored in 12/13 prior to that and 2+ goals in a whopping 10 (76.92%). They are six points above the drop zone, which, with 26 rounds played, I am pretty certain they would have joyously accepted pre season and they will doubtless view their next two home  games versus teams below them in the table (Cagliari and Crotone) as both far more win-able and important. That is not to say that they will not try this evening and would love a point of better, just that the level of expectation will not be overly high, pressure reduced and they can play a more natural game. They have not had much luck in front of goal in recent starts (one goal from 5 BC's in their last two games for example) and we can expect them to play their part in an open contest.

 

 

1.67 and 2.36 are probably both too short given the respective quality of opposition, but very difficult to get anywhere close to 5.50 and win or lose that feels like a BIG old quote .

 

 

 

 

Lazio- Crotone is a very rare Friday lunchtime kick off which might give this game a different feel. Hard not to see the hosts coming out on top and they are desperate for the three points to stay in touch with the top four, but they often take a while to get going and they have a -3 home first half goal difference , which rises to +7 after the break, they have conceded 9/14 of goals as host in the opening 45 minutes. Crotone are not very good, but have scored 70% of away goals in the first half and are coming off a big and confidence boosting home win.

 

Pretty sure that Lazio will come on very strong after the break and any number of ways you could approach this, Crotone's best chance of scoring is surely early when they can ride their momentum from last week and try and catch the host cold. Both teams to score in the first half is a tempting 4.80 and I will suggest a small interest (1 unit).

 

Good luck !