Tonight's Bundesliga game .........
Oct 14, 2022
Bundesliga: Schalke 04- Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim kindly lost 2-1 at home to Werder Bremen last week ahead of which I noted ............
Bremen made the notes a couple of times last month, first when they visited struggling Bochum and I was keen to oppose the home side, but finished my preview with ......
Defensively they (Bochum) have issues, which is a huge understatement and newly promoted Werder Bremen who are a much bigger club and look to be back stronger after one season in the second tier, have been scoring for fun, with 2+ goals in each of their last nine competitive starts, four of those in the Bundesliga, including away to Dortmund and Wolfsburg.
Bremen won 2-0, but have gone 1-1-1 subsequently, losing at home to Augsburg which was a shock, then drawing away to Leverkusen before hammering BMG 5-1 last weekend, across those three starts they averaged 2.38 xGF and 4.33 BC's, they have scored 18 goals this season, second only to Bayern and pose a massive offensive threat. Hoffenheim are a team we like to back, but only on the road where they traditionally play to their strengths , they have been decent at their PreZero Arena this season, but have played three struggling teams in their four starts and another who basically came for a point and they will be asked far more questions defensively this evening and I just cannot see them keeping Werder out for too long.
Hoffenheim were probably unlucky to actually lose, as they had 17 attempts on goal, 12 ITB, 6 on target and won xG. They will be eager to get back on track this evening and they have scored in 5/6 road games (8 total).
Schalke were promoted as champions back to the Bundesliga at the first attempt, after that horror show of a 20/21 campaign, which saw them win just 3 games, lose 24 and concede 86 goals (2.53pg), with a -61 goal difference (-1.79 pg !). Even in that promotion campaign they managed to lose five at home (rare), conceding 27 goals, which was the most outside the bottom five (unheard of)! They have shipped 12 goals in four home starts to date and their only win this season came over Bochum , who had just one point from eight starts until last week. The Schalke defence is as watertight as a sieve and they obviously struggle big time when the onus is on them to make the running. Home head coach Frank Kramer is said to already be on borrowed time and it is reported that he has lost the support of many senior players who would not be sorry to see him depart and that will probably happen with a loss this evening. The main criticism of him is that he has been too defensive! If you are defensive and conceding at the rate Schalke have, then you really are in trouble!
2 units Hoffenheim -0.5 ball 2.03 asian line.
Good luck!
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
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