Tuesday newsletter .............
Feb 02, 2022
We went 5/5 yesterday on what many considered a quiet day, with 14+ points of much needed profit, the five fold paid 101-1 and all five to win circa 150-1 +.
Those notes are reproduced below , Argentina led at half time and won 1-0, Lyon edged home 2-1, Paris FC won 2-1, Niort 2-0 and Nimes completed the set with a 3-0 victory.
World Cup Qualifiers : CONMEBOL:Argentina- Colombia
Both teams made the notes on Thursday for the last round of games.............
Hard to know how Brazil and Argentina will approach these games, they are both missing their biggest stars, in Neymar and Messi and have no need to win, but are also unbeaten in qualifying and might not want to easily give up that record, also, competition for starting places is always fierce. Ecuador and Brazil played out two close games last year (each was all square entering the final 25 minutes and one stayed that way), Copa and WCQ, both in Brazil and Chile and Argentina also met twice within 10 days last June and both finished 1-1 and served us well, as I went with Chile +0.5 ball in each and there are notes on both below the "good luck" sign off. I spoke about the traditionally close nature of their h2h games and the last 10 have seen five draws and five single goal wins (90 mins) all for Argentina. Chile are motivated , but Argentina do not concede (none in last six starts and just 3 in 13 games) and are unbeaten in 26 starts and the most important thing for the hosts is to hang on in there, so a point might not be terrible. They are also with a key player of their own in Arturo Vidal and they are winless in six when he is absent, they have drawn 2 of the last 3 of those, including with Argentina and both fixtures look set to finish all square, or at least offer best value to do so.
Colombia are a big favourite at home to Peru and did win the reverse fixture 3-0, but they have not scored in five starts and did lose to Peru on neutral soil last year (Brazil) and it is a while since they lived up to what remains a lofty reputation, they have won just 3 of 18 WCQ's, turning into draw specialists ( 11 ending all square, which is 61.1 %) and key players Falcao (36 yo in two weeks time) and James (playing his football in Qatar) and Cuadrado ( 33yo) all have issues and/or are a bit long in the tooth. By the time this game kicks off, both teams might have avoiding defeat as a priority and even be happy with a point, at least to some degree.
Argentina lead 2-1 at the break,in a game which ended with the same scoreline, it perhaps should have been the draw we were looking for, as their second goal was scored as the home side were about to substitute their injured goalkeeper, who could not handle a shot, only parry it, from about 40m out. But it was another game where Argentina showed their best early and that was something which featured heavily in our notes on them last year and we really milked that, landing bets at some very juicy odds, typical of which was the Copa America final when I wrote ...........
Ahead of their semi final with Colombia I spoke about how strongly Argentina had been starting games ............
Argentina will be looking to set up that Copa final with their biggest rival and victory today will make the tournament a success, almost regardless of how that plays out. Ahead of their last group stage game against a poor Bolivian side I wrote ..........
Argentina should win with the minimum of fuss and it is a chance for them to throw the shackles off and I feel they should take it, as they too often seem content to do the absolute minimum to win games.
They won that 4-1 which was great for our purposes and followed up with a 3-0 QF demolition of Ecuador, seven goals was as many as they had managed in the previous six starts and I just wonder if they suddenly realise that you don't have to win every game by a single goal. They should certainly be aware that Columbia are dangerous to invite pressure from, having blown a very early 2-0 lead in a World Cup qualifier in Barranquilla last month in build up to this competition, conceding a 95th minute equaliser. La Albiceleste should have been out of sight by then and will have hopefully learned a lesson.
One thing that Argentina have been doing is starting games like their lives depended upon it and in their last eight starts they were .........
2-0 after 28 minutes
1-0 23 minutes
2-0 8 minutes (in Colombia)
1-0 33 minutes
1-0 13 minutes
1-0 10 minutes
3-0 42 minutes
1-0 40 minutes
Taking a first half lead in each and having very early multiple goal leads on three occasions and I think that is where the value lies this evening.
They led after 7 minutes and at the break, Colombia equalised in the second half , before La Albiceleste won on penalties. Argentina were 4-0 for BC's in that game so it was hard to argue against them being a worthy winner, but now the hard work begins !
Brazil are the best team in South America and are on home soil, but Argentina are the second best and sooner or later they are going to have to win another Copa or title of some sort, they must know they cannot fall behind and another fast start is on the cards and that is very much their modus operandi. The goals have dried up a little for the Samba Boys, the competition format is at least partly to blame and in their last four starts, they have not scored before the 35th minute (78-37-46-35) and twice their opener came after the break and I will again side with Argentina in first half betting............
They won that, beating Brazil 1-0 with a 22nd minute goal and within those notes you will see that they led at the break in two games v Colombia.
Argentina clearly have great team spirit and the fact that they have little to play for did not stop them last midweek and both goals were celebrated wildly and it is difficult to see that not being the case today given their long unbeaten record and the fact they are on home soil. It is now seven games since the visitors scored and whilst they need something from this, it might be after the break that they throw caution to the wind and they get back into things, as they did in the last two h2h meetings, if they do so at all. I might bet the "over" at half time as this has goal potential if Colombia are in that position, but once again, best pre match value is surely with ..................
1.75 units Argentina First Half betting -0.5 ball 2.77 asian line.
France:
Ligue 1 : Olympique Lyonnais- Olympique Marseille
All the major clubs in Ligue 1 cut their budgets for this season, yes, even PSG, apart from one and that was Marseille and it has served them well, they are third and 7 points better off than this stage last season when they finished 5th , but way off top 3 pace and once again, money talks and it was a big increase of 66% , huge in fact. However, it "only" gave them the same budget as Lyon , who were themselves 4th last season, 16 points ahead of OM and actually ranked #1 for xP . A poor finish to their campaign cost them top 3 and perhaps even a title win,that they were in contention for almost all season long. They have had a hangover from that and sit 10th this morning, but would move level on points with the team in 4th with the win and within 5 points of OM and that makes tonight huge for them as it keeps all those Champions League options well and truly open. They signed Romain Faivre (Brest) and Tanguy Ndombele (Tottenham) yesterday, selling Bruno Guimares for a silly fee to Newcastle United, who have been spending money as though it was going out of fashion and inflating the market. OL are unbeaten in six and have won their last two without conceding, they have a good record in this series (6-4-0 last 10 home starts) and head coach Peter is aware of the importance of this fixture and likes the way his team are playing at present (much tighter), but his squad are a bit shorthanded for today. It is a very interesting fixture between two teams who will be big players in the second half of the campaign, but despite the missing players, there is no getting away from how big a game this is for OL with CL ambitions in mind and xP only puts 2 points between the two, something small on the home win.
1.75 units Lyon -0.25 ball 2.37 asian line.
Ligue 2:
Auxerre- Paris FC
Niort- Dunkerque
At the weekend I looked at Dunkerque -Paris FC...................
I wrote a short but very nice (IMO) preview of this fixture last season which PFC won 1-0...........
Dunkerque have adapted well to Ligue 2 following promotion last season and are in 10th with 13 points from 9 low scoring games with a 7-7 goal difference. However, they have taken just one point in any games in which they have conceded and I am not sure there is too much by way of a plan B when they fall behind, they now meet the league leaders and top L2 scorers in Paris FC , who have scored in 8/9 and at least twice in all four away starts. We have sided with them in almost all starts and there are a lot of background notes on them in the preview of their home game with Caen from last week, which is reproduced in full at the foot of this page. They won that 3-1 and will travel in high spirits today, already holding a five point lead over second placed Troyes. It feels like the Dunkerque game plan is better suited to playing on the road and they have collected more points away than at home across the last three campaigns, winning just 6/13 last season which is a low win rate for any promoted team. But this is more about how good PFC are and that they are very likely to score, which might be enough !
It is kind of "as you were". Paris finished 5th last season and lost in the first round of the playoffs. This time round they are currently 4th, but only five points off top spot with 1-2 games in hand on all three teams above them and a win here would leave them in a very strong position. Dunkerque finished 20-21 in 16th, avoiding the relegation playoff game on goal difference, this season they are 19th, 5 points from safety, but with at least this GIH on most. However, they are a small club, in that always difficult second season and survival is always going to be the limit of their ambition at this level, they are operating on 6m euros which is the L2 minimum and that budget has been trimmed by 14% from last season, PFC have the third highest in the division. Dunkerque have scored just six home goals, none in four starts versus top 5 opposition, losing three of those and being 0-4 for BC's and with just 3 attempts ITB, none on target, in the game they drew. PFC head coach Thierry Laurey is looking to make it a hat-trick of automatic promotions in his last three seasons at this level, taking Gazelec and Strasbourg up and knows you can ill afford to drop points in games like this, especially when your direct rivals have (largely) already done so.
PFC led for 20 second half minutes and should have gone on to take all three points in a contest they largely bossed , they still have this game in hand and will move to within a point of leaders Toulouse with the win, but the problem is that Auxerre are only a point adrift of Paris and will be equally as motivated. The hosts, along with PFC are a team we have been keen on for a couple of seasons, but Auxerre do have some real issues in games against fellow promotion candidates and they have not beaten a top 6 team in six outings this season, failing to score in three and conceding 10 themselves. One of those was a 0-0 draw away to Ajaccio last time out, which sounds ok, but they lost BC's 0-3 and played versus 10 men for the final 23 minutes. PFC have not lost in three visits here,or conceded in the last two and I prefer them off level ball.
Niort are a funny old team, I wonder how many times I have written that ? It is true though, I have watched them many times over the years and thought they have improved or look good right now and yet it never comes to anything and I wrote about that last season............it doesn't matter how well they start the season and they were third through ten rounds with 17 points and a game in hand, or how impressive they look, they "always" end up in the same position ! They have finished between 10th and 18th in 7 of the last 8 campaigns and this is clearly booked for an eighth.They were indeed 18th .
This time round they have sneaked up to 7th without anyone looking and yes, I will say it, have impressed. I will not get sucked in and neither should you, at least long term, but they have scored 9 goals and taken 10 points from their last four starts, three of which game versus top 10 teams and they meet nothing of that level today and they have nothing to lose. Winning their two games in hand could leave them just three points off third and it is worth gambling big time for the victory and I suppose they have to come good at some stage.
2 units Paris FC level ball 2.68 asian line.
2 units Niort -0.75 ball 2.28 asian line.
Pau- Olympique Nimes
I previewed Nimes' trip to Dijon earlier this month and those notes are reproduced in full below the "good luck" sign off. They won that 2-1 (3-2 BC's) and then had two games postponed with COVID issues before beating Valenciennes by the same 2-1 scoreline ( 5-2 BC's) last weekend . It was the 4th 2-1 result they had recorded in a row , winning both since the change in head coach and they also had that
4-1 cup loss to Toulouse (see below) sandwiched in between . The new coach has got a reaction and they have re-found their goal touch and are creating plenty, but remain vulnerable at the back for now. Pau are once again overachieving given their size and budget (just a shade over the minimum allowed) but they are a bit hit and miss and I want to stick with Nimes now they have starting winning and with memories of how well we have done with them on the road over the years and in their last three seasons in Ligue 2 they have a 25-10-13 record , with a 52% + win rate and averaging 1.75 goals scored which is just tremendous in any league, but especially in Ligue 2. Having said all that, I would not rule out goals either and another 2-1 scoreline would certainly not surprise .
2 units Nimes level ball 2.55 asian line.
Good luck !
Ligue 2: Dijon- Nimes
Two teams we "like", Nimes will never be forgotten for those two seasons in the second tier prior to promotion when they served us so very well , but now back in Ligue 2 they feel in transition (like many teams after relegation in France) and they have just changed their head coach (very little time for the newcomer to change things......just one full training session). Dijon are one of the few teams we have discussed a lot this season and both actually made the pre Christmas notes, when we did so well, before I managed to give most of that profit back on last week's NFL !!!!!!!!!!
The switch to largely Saturday fixtures in Ligue 2 has been far from ideal for us, it has left very limited opportunities to cover games and a big hole in the Friday schedule. It is a shame and I miss it.
Not sure I feel fully equipped to just dive back it for this round, but I have noticed a few things, so let's look at those and a big advantage for one team who we do know quite well. The second tier in France has gone back to being a low scoring league after several seasons where goals were on the rise. The 180 games played this season have averaged just 2.24 goals and only four teams average above 2.50 pg , "overs" (2.5) were running at just 37.74% until a couple of weeks ago, but 14 of the last 21 have produced 3+ and we do sometimes see this in the run up to Christmas and hopefully that will continue this round.
A couple of teams have upped the levels of entertainment in recent weeks and the last eight starts of Nimes/Dijon/Niort/Toulouse/
Nancy- Dijon
Nîmes- Toulouse
Further notes on Guingamp and Dijon below, the visitors led 2-0 there but lost 3-2 , they have scored 7 in three, conceding six and goals look likely for their trip to Nancy, who's last 10 starts have averaged 2.6 pg, with both teams scoring in seven and they are having some huge discipline issues, with five players sent off in their last three starts, including three in a weekend cup game (they are without four suspended players, including three who took part in their last victory, one of only two all season for the basement club). Dunkerque are not known for their free scoring ways and they have only managed 9 in 10 starts, but five came in four away starts and they have gone 15 road games without a clean sheet and managed just one in 22 outings. Guingamp's last 10 starts have averaged 3.5 goals, their last five at home 4.0pg with BTS in the last six and they have conceded in eight in a row as host.
Nimes ( 31 goals in their last 10 starts) against Toulouse (34 goals in 10) screams goals and the two met in Toulouse in the cup just four days ago and it resulted in a 4-1 home win. Nimes rotated heavily and will be taking this far more seriously , but I expect them to do so with a similarly open approach ,that is certainly the Toulouse way and should dictate how this plays out. The visitors have scored 109 goals in 56 Ligue 2 starts (1.95 pg) since their relegation and rarely take a backward step.
Given how freely Dijon has been scoring and that they are playing the "worst" team in the division, who are struggling to keep 10 men on the pitch and with four suspended today, I see massive value in them to again score twice and it has to be the best bet of the day.
Dijon kindly won 3-0 and Nimes lost 2-1 ( 6 defeats in 10 starts). Dijon continue on the up and have scored 10 goals in their last four starts, just 14 in 15 games prior to that, they are up to 13th, but only a point adrift of the team in 9th and 3-4 wins can take you a very long way in Ligue 2. The problem today is that Dijon are hard hit by injury, suspension, COVID and suspension ! However, I want to write about the game to keep this club fresh in our memories and we are going to continue to do very well with Dijon in the second half of the campaign.
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