Tuesday subscriber newsletter ............
Jan 27, 2021
Tuesday January 26th
Next newsletter will be sent @ 10:00 UK time on Wednesday.
The Ligue 2 game last night played out perfectly and mirrored all those stats, being 0-0 at the break and with Toulouse scoring the only goal of the game early in the second half and hopefully we have found some other good positions to take advantage of this evening. This "middle" part of the season is when these "in play" stats tend to stand up best.
League 1: Rochdale- Oxford United
Back in mid November I wrote ..........
Oxford United have two games in hand on most teams and if they win both, they could move up from 21st to circa 11th and within 6-7 points of the top 6 , that will remain their aim and they made a similar charge last season, something we discussed at the weekend.............
United have started this season poorly results wise, but performances have been much better and according to xP they should have additional 10 points on board and be above Rovers in the table. I suspect there has been a bit of a playoff final hangover from last season when Wycombe "robbed" them of a Championship place. I know the U's quite well, my brother in law and nephews live in the city and go to a few games and keep me updated, they felt they were the team hardest hit by the early end to last season, which is hard to argue with as they had all the momentum and were 15-6-5 across their last 26 games which would have put them on par with "champions" Coventry. The more eagle eyed amongst you will have noticed that run actually started from United's 10th start and today is their 10th game of this campaign. They beat Rovers 3-0 here last season ( 9-0 on target, 13-3 ITB, 0-6 saves) and I feel they are good value to follow up.
That game was cancelled with their opponent having COVID issues.
I have been able to look into the U's a little more, they have been hard hit by injury through the opening games, but are getting closer to full strength now and defender Elliott Moore said: “With the squad coming back to full fitness, people are fighting for places now, which we haven’t had for a long period because of the injuries.“Now we’ve got a lot of games coming up in a short period.“There is a line under (the season so far) and we begin again now. "Hopefully we get off to a good start.”
Star player James Henry told the local newspaper : “I was playing in quite a bit of pain, just managing to get through.“It’s completely settled now and I’m raring to go and get back on-song.”The influential attacker believes it has been part of the explanation for what has been a slow start to the season by his usual high standards. He added that it also hampered the "gelling process" between him and new on field partnerships , but that it was now all coming together.
Head coach Karl Robinson gave an interesting interview to the Oxford Mail too, part of which read ...... KR has been buoyed by the results from the physical testing done with the squad late last week, which was made possible by Saturday’s postponement. There was already a feeling things were starting to come together after a chaotic beginning to the campaign.The data backs that up, but the head coach knows the only figure which really counts is the points column in the table.He said: “The players are fitter, the numbers are up from where they were at the beginning of the season.“Where we had a very small break in the summer and a small pre-season, that fatigue element was still there.“I’m looking now and I don’t see it as much.“I feel we’re in a good place, but it’s pointless me sat here speaking about that, results will be the judge of it.”He added: “We feel we have enough games in hand to mount a decent challenge.“What has become clear is I really do know where we need to improve.“The squad is really clear to me now for the first time.”
It all sounds very positive and if fitness levels, options/injuries have improved and numbers were already good, there is no knowing how far the U's could go. They are as big as 100-1 to win League 1 and 5.50-6.0 for another top 6 finish and I would be surprised if they did not at least put in a push for the latter at some stage.
Since the day of that game, United have played 11 games, won six , including their last five and tasted defeat just once, they are unbeaten in six away starts and scored 8 goals in the last two of those, including three at Plymouth who are otherwise 7-3-2 at home with only the top three teams in the division having a better record as host. The U's are up to 11th, with between 1-3 games in hand on pretty much everyone, win tonight and they will move to within 3 points of sixth and those 6.0 odds (see above) will start to look huge. The fixture list also offers them a lot of opportunity to close in on the top, with six home games against teams above them in the table remaining.
Rochdale are struggling, especially at home, where they have only won once all season. Dale are winless in six and have conceded 21 goals in their last eight starts, United just four ! XP puts Oxford 6th already, with an additional six points than they currently have and only 4 points adrift of the team in 4th with two games in hand, which highlights their potential/ability. Dale are exactly where xP suggests they should be in relation to league position, but says they should have both scored and conceded 7 goals fewer. United have never lost in eight h2h League 1 meetings (all played since 2016), winning six and keeping 5 clean sheets.
Rochdale have conceded 27/43 goals (62.79%) in the opening 45 minutes and 14/21 (66.67%) have been given up in home games during the first half and that is clearly when they are most vulnerable. United have also scored 7 first half goals in their last four league starts.
Premier League:
Southampton - Arsenal
These two met here at St Mary's in the FA Cup on Saturday , Southampton named a strong starting line up and went for it from the off , scoring the only goal of the game early. I think that visiting head coach Mikel Arteta wanted to progress too and defend a trophy they won last season, but he made seven changes from the last league game and clearly gave today's fixture priority. The Gunners ended the weekend game the stronger, or rather they finally came to life late on, but surely we will see far more from them today and their starting 11 will definitely have an edge in freshness. Despite Saints having a 2 point lead in the table, Arsenal are 11 points better for xP and had been in their best form of the season until Saturday, winning all five league games since Christmas with four clean sheets and by an 11-1 goal difference. A win tonight would take them 8th and within four points of a Champions League place and Arteta will be judged on how close he gets to the top four and that will also determine have much is invested in the squad in the off season, basically, the Gunners need to go close, or to win the Europa League for his job security and the purse strings to be loosened.
Arteta and his coaching staff will have learned much from the weekend, it is rare you get to play roughly the same starting 11 twice inside a few days and he knows that Saints will come at them early as, in addition to that goal inside 24 minutes on Saturday, Southampton are an eyecatching 6-2-1 at home in the opening half of league games. Arsenal are ranked #7 for second half play and #6 on the road where they are 4-4-1 with a 6-1 goal difference, if we add in the six away cup games, that improves to 8-6-1 with a 15-3 goal difference and the Gunners are clearly at their best at both ends of the pitch and most comfortable away, after the break, when Arteta have been able to tweak a few things.
It is easy to see the first goal again being decisive, Kyle Walker-Peters' deflected effort on Saturday was the first time Arsenal had conceded in 508 minutes. Southampton have scored just one league goal in the last 522 minutes played .
Newcastle United- Leeds United
These two met at Elland Road just six weeks ago with Leeds winning 5-2 and it is all too easy to see tonight's visitors having similar, if not quite as emphatic, offensive joy this evening. Newcastle are tumbling towards the drop zone, they have not won in 10 starts in all competitions and have scored just once in the last eight and that a late consolation in a game they were never competitive in. They might look safe (ish) with a 7 point lead over the bottom three, but their numbers have indicated that they have played poorly for the last two seasons and they have had a long awaited appointment with this kind of run. It is they that the current bottom three will have their eye on and feel that the Magpies are the team that can be caught. It is not just the stats, lack of recent goals and results that should be concerning loyal Newcastle supporters, but the total lack of ambition they have shown at times. This was all mentioned ahead of a recent trip to basement club Sheffield United, where they lost 1-0 and were comprehensively outplayed .
All statistical categories put Newcastle at bottom 4 at best and xP gives Leeds an 8 point advantage and if anything, that seems generous to the Magpies. The visitors have struggled over their three 2021 starts, but scored 13 goals in the four games to finish the old year and just three games in four weeks should aid their high octane style of football which has made so many friends this season. They should also be helped by the hosts defensive injuries, with Newcastle seemingly without three CB's, Federico Fernandez and Ciaran Clark, who started in the middle of the backline in the recent h2h meeting ,are both sidelined , but head coach Steven Bruce said he was without a trio of central defenders and, he only has four in the first team squad and often likes to play three.
Newcastle have scored 10 home goals, but 7 have come after the 61st minute and it is easy to see all the early play and pressure coming from Leeds and I expect them to win and if they get in front, being able to further exploit the Newcastle defensive issues.
Oxford -1 ball 2.42 , Arsenal -0.5 ball 2.21 and Leeds -0.75 ball 2.25 are the basic picks.
The U's also look good early (-0.5 ball 2.43 first half) as do Leeds (-0.5 ball 2.61), but Oxford especially so, for Arsenal, they might have to weather an early storm from Saints before pushing on after the break and I might hold off on them until half time .
Good luck !
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