UEFA Champions League betting tip: Atletico Madrid- AS Roma
Nov 22, 2017
UEFA Champions League: Atletico Madrid- AS Roma
I previewed the first leg and I focussed, not for the first time on the importance all the big clubs give to a fast start in the Champions League .......
Atletico have developed into a major European player under Diego Simeone and have made the last eight of the Champions League in each of the last four seasons, including two finals, in both of which they suffered extra time defeats to their cross town rival Real, which were incredibly painful, but have only served to make their hunger stronger. One thing they have learned and it is something we spoke about several times last season and which all the top clubs know, is the importance of a fast start in the competition and to hit the ground running. Just not to be playing catch up, with winning the section usually vital, my notes ahead of last season's Matchday 1 trip to PSV Eindhoven are reproduced below and touch upon that, they won that 1-0, took maximum points from their first five games and that meant they could travel to Bayern, lose, yet still win the group. That set up a knockout stage game with Leverkusen, instead of possibly Dortmund, Monaco or Juventus, on top of all that it also gets you into the winning mindset for the long campaign ahead.
Atletico are currently under a transfer "ban", but have already made some signings which will be completed in January and rules like this do not apply to big clubs, who pretty much carry on regardless and find ways to circumnavigate them ! Biggest deal they did this summer was a contract extension for Simeone, he is staying until 2020 and wants that Champions League crown before he goes. They have yet to play a home game this season with the finishing touches being made on the amazing Wanda Metropolitano, before they host Malaga on Saturday and this is a huge week for Atletico and they want to make it a memorable one. They have scored seven in three away games and whilst they had to settle for a 0-0 draw at Valencia over the weekend, but played well and are now unbeaten in 12 La Liga road games.
Roma have not played for 17 days since their 3-1 home loss to Inter which we discussed on Sunday, I think that is far from ideal at this stage of the season when you want to build some momentum and they have won just one of 9 Champions League games, losing 3-0 at home to Porto last year at the playoff stage and 2-0 in Rome to Real the year before, qualfying from their group almost by default, with just six points (home draw with BATE).
Many advantages there for Atletico and they dominated, "winning "attempts on target 10-1 and hitting the woodwork twice, but they have not recovered from the failure to win that, lost from a winning position to Chelsea and played out two draws with Qarabag ! They have looked a shadow of their former selves this season and, despite being unbeaten in La Liga, there have been too many draws (six) and too few home goals (seven in seven competitive games). Atleti are already 10 points adrift of Barcelona in the title race and four adrift of Chelsea and five of Roma in this competition. If they win both remaining starts (they finish at Stamford Bridge) it will give them 9 points, but it will not be enough if the top two beat Qarabag , with the Blues in Baku this evening trying to follow up a 6-0 win in the reverse fixture and ASR also going for the double in the Eternal City in two week's time. It is a chance of course and any is better than none, but I wonder if they truly believe, especially if news comes through that Chelsea are a goal or two up.
Roma are much improved and inspired by two wonderful performances against Chelsea, drawing 3-3 in London from two down (should have won) and a 3-0 victory in the return game. We have sided with them in their last two away starts, both of which they won and ahead of the last, a trip to Fiorentina I wrote about their incredible away form............
Roma have looked very good in two games against Chelsea and can build on the confidence surely gained from the 3-0 hammering inflicted on the Blues in midweek and they will have to, to stay in touch with the top 4. Hard to believe that the Wolves have won 8/10 domestically and are "only" 5th and four points adrift of the team immediately above them ! They do have a game in hand on the top 4, but the leading clubs are setting a tremendous pace and it is a case of don't blink or you will miss out.
Roma have lost just once in seven visits to Fiorentina, which was last season and they will want to put that right, those three points would have taken them to within one of champions Juventus and they will be mindful of that. The hosts will be hugely disappointed by a 2-1 loss at struggling Crotone last week and have underperformed against top 7 teams ( 2 wins in 12 in the last 12 months). Roma have now won 11 in a row on the road in Serie A (!), with a 32-6 goal difference, scoring three or more in 7 and keeping clean sheets in the last four, add in a win at Qarabag in the Champions League, a result which looks increasingly impressive and the draw at Stamford Bridge where they should have scored five and it is clear how very comfortable they are away from the Eternal City.
They won that 4-2 and have played just once since, a confidence enforcing derby win over Lazio at the weekend. 12 straight Serie A road wins and nine goals in their last three starts and having outplayed Chelsea, who gave Atletico a bit of a football lesson in Madrid, across some two and a half hours, scoring six. A draw is unlikely to have any value for Atletico (Chelsea would have to lose) and that should ensure how they play this, if Roma can avoid conceding early, they will get chances later in the game and if they play as well as they did against the Blues, are significantly overpriced to win this. Atletico have served us well in this competition in reecnt years, but I have to see Roma's chance to win as greater than 23%, they would win this far more than 23/100 games under similar circumstances and that is all we need to know .
1.5 units AS Roma to win (-0.5 ball) 4.20-4.50 general quote.
Good Luck.
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