UEFA Champions League betting tip: Paris St Germain- Manchester United

football betting tips -
 
 
UEFA Champions League: Paris St Germain- Manchester United
 
 
PSG fell short at the final hurdle in the Champions League last season, losing 1-0 in the final to Bayern Munich in August. This competition is the Holy Grail for them and as disappointing as it must have been to come so close, it was a significant breakthrough for the club and it has probably just fed the hunger even more.
 
The late knockout stage games from last season were only two months ago and ahead of the final I wrote a good deal of background notes..........
 
PSG beat RB Leipzig by the same 3-0 scoreline on Tuesday in their semi-final .
 
I sided with PSG against Atalanta last week ............
 
Atalanta have statistically been the best team in Italy for the last two seasons , they have scored freely and played open, flowing football which has been a joy to watch, but they have finished third each time and it does still feel as though they have a bit of an inferiority complex against the very best teams. They have not beaten Juventus for 30 games, losing 24 of those and have a sub 30% win rate against the other Big 6 teams, it stops them making the next step up, but in truth it is unlikely to happen. A lowly budget and to a degree negative mindset stops that and I saw a recent interview with head coach Gian Piero Gasperiniwhere he highlighted the latter.

“We said qualifying for the Champions League for the second year in a row was our ultimate aim, so after that finishing third or second is about prestige, but the objective remains the same.“I thought we started quite strong this season, then of course the Champions League took some energy out of us." The real points we dropped were in the games with Lazio, Juventus and Inter, but then we never did target the Serie A title.“We’ve raised the bar and are hitting our targets anyway. "We can’t think of the Scudetto.

They did struggle a little over the closing 2-3 weeks of the campaign, losing to Inter (it was before Gasperini's interview) and scoring just 5 times in 5 starts, with the goals drying up after scoring 2.82 pg up to that point and I do worry they might have hit a wall.

I do not think this is a good match up for Atalanta's man marking style, it plays into the hands of PSG's strength and fluidity on offense when they can often have five attackers and the Italian back three are too keen at times to go hunting the ball. Add in the Parisians far greater Champions League experience and huge desire to win this competition and this massive funding, plus perhaps a slight inferiority complex for Atalanta when the truly big games come around and maybe a drop in form/intensity from them, and it has to be PSG.
 
Mauro Icardi has six goals in his last five appearances against Atalanta.
 
Kylian Mbappe was initially ruled out after suffering an injury against Lyon in their League Cup final victory on July 31, but he returned to  training on Sunday, PSG are at least optimistic he can be involved to some degree and he is giving a thumbs up in every photo/video I have seen of him this week.
 
The won 2-1 coming from behind to take the win with two late goals, there was no "fluidity on offense" for PSG that I referred to above, at least not until Kylian Mbappe changed the game after coming off the bench and supplied Neymar with some much needed help. The Brazilian got precious little prior to that, with Icardi and Pablo Sarabia not only being poor, but not exactly busting a gut to assist Neymar much. The Brazilian superstar had an odd game, looked really good and was head and shoulders (and most of his torso) above everyone else on the pitch, at least until the arrival of Mbappe, but left his shooting boots in Paris and was guilty of two unbelievable misses , the first is difficult to explain if you did not see it. He was through on goal and just had to slide the ball into the net and somehow missed by some five metres, I must have watched the incident 20 times and am still not certain how he managed it !
 
But he kept his head up and continued to try and drive his largely lethargic team mates forward, his 16 completed dribbles were the most in a Champions League game since Lionel Messi for Barcelona against Manchester United in April 2008 and was when Messi and Barce were good ! Only joking, at least about the player !

Mbappe is starting tonight and I think we will see a more upbeat showing from the other nine players , at the end of the day if Neymar had taken his chances and on almost any other occasion he might have scored a hat-trick, PSG would have eased home. Angel Di Maria is also available again after frustratingly sitting out his ban against Atalanta on the sidelines.

Leipzig beat Atletico Madrid in the quarter finals and I do not want to take anything away from them, they were deserved winners , but it was a cowardly performance from the Spanish side who, after equalising and turning the tide of the game in their favour and looking set to win, went back into their defensive /spoiler shell and were rightly punished.

Ahead of that game I spoke about Leipzig's "issues" ........... The extended season and break has hardly helped RB Leipzig much, the first has cost them star player Timo Werner who has already moved to Chelsea and the second has hindered their high intensity hard press which is difficult to just turn off and on and requires the team to be at full fitness, which they are not . Four of Leipzig's last eight Champions League goals have come from the penalty spot and of the four from open play, two were provided by Werner. This is a step up for RBL the only other top eight team they have faced in the competition is Lyon and they conceded twice in each (2-2, 0-2).  They have a number of key players carrying knocks, if Yussuf Poulsen were to miss out, for instance, they would be without 39 goals and 26 assists (the totals he and Werner have amassed this season).

Poulson played and Leipzig were brave, but not asked enough questions offensively by Atletico and that should not be the case this evening.

Paris SG have progressed from all three of their European knockout ties with German opponents, including eliminating Borussia Dortmund in this year’s Champions League Last 16.They have scored in 33 straight CL games and will equal Real Madrid's all time record should they score this evening. I think they will and take the classy big game players of PSG to step up.

The final.
 
I have no issues with Bayern as favourites for tonight's game, they score for fun and are relentless and there is much to like about the fact they never sit on a lead, but they have looked shambolic defensively at times and Lyon were very wasteful and squandered several BC's, a couple of which were far easy to score than miss. I doubt PSG will do likewise, especially if Neymar can find his shooting boots which have been missing for the last two games, but his overall play has otherwise been what we would expect given his superstar status. Now that he has Di Maria and Mbappe to share the burden, the best player in this game will have help and more space to work in and perhaps most importantly of all, the Brazilian looks happy at PSG for perhaps the first time since he joined. Marco Verratti is also available again and things seem to be going the Parisian way.
 
PSG have a German head coach who knows Bayern as well as most opposition managers, will be playing in the Estádio da Luz for the third straight game and have had an extra 24 hours to rest up and more importantly, prepare. Looking forward to what should be a game to savour.
 
Their scoring run in Champions League games ended at 33 , with a 1-0 loss, but they deserved at least a goal and although Bayern were deserved winners, the game could easily have taken a different turn if PSG had taken their chances. The Parisians are in better form in front of goal right now, with 15 goals in their last four starts and they will fancy their chances today and be out for revenge after United knocked them out of the 2018-19 CL knockout stage, scoring a 95th minute goal to get the job done here in Paris. That would definitely not have been forgotten.
 
United have some issues, they have struggled to get players to join them which seems crazy , they have looked just plain dull at times, suffered a horror show 6-1 home defeat to Tottenham just before the international break and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer looks on borrowed time. To be fair to him he identified three areas of weakness ahead of the transfer window, saying they needed a wide right-sided player, left-back and central defender..............so just the left, right and centre !
 
They bought two teenage right backs, a cheap left back and a central midfielder, oh and a veteran striker in Edinson Cavani who looks past his sell by date. They talked the talk transfer wise, but didn't splash the cash or press the button on players like Jadon Sancho who was their "main target" for months and available. OGS, United executive vice-chairman Ed Woodward and his transfer negotiator, head of corporate development, Matt Judge, have all been heavily criticised and heads will roll at some stage, because they always do ! United look really vulnerable to quality offensive opposition and I expect PSG to win with a little in hand.
 

2.25 units Paris St Germain -1.5 ball 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Good luck !

 

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