UEFA Champions League betting tips..................
Mar 06, 2019
Not a great betting day today, but I have previewed three events for subscribers in a low key kind of way and you can read one below ,I have also included notes from yesterday's Real-Ajax preview, where I put up the visitors +0.5 ball at good odds and also highlighted them to score "over" 1.5 second half goals @ 5.50 + plus which they did as it is a good sample of the kind of "options" offered in the daily newsletter.
Today also sees the restart of tennis at clubgowi , we have only covered the Australian Open so far in 2019, but are going back to back this month with Indian Wells which gets underway today, followed by the Miami Open which immediately follows, so in addition to football we will have daily coverage of tennis for most of this month.
There was a big response to the first of the 13th birthday offers on Monday and the next will run from Thursday/Friday this week, so look out for details.
UEFA Champions League: Paris St Germain- Manchester United
I can start by telling you what everyone else knows, PSG lead 2-0 from the first leg and this tie looks over, with United having made the trip without 10 first team players including Sanchez, Pogba, Martial, Lingard, Mata, Herrera, Matic, Damian, Valencia, Jones etc and including 5 teenage academy members in a 20 man group that travelled. United also play Arsenal at the Emirates on Sunday in a game which could be pivotal in deciding top 4 and given how tonight's game is poised and the number of absences, one game has to be prioritised and that surely has to be the weekend one.
PSG have struggled in the knockout stages of the CL, but this is the competition they want above all others and Ligue 1, which is already won anyway, is not a consideration and a big win tonight, will lay down a marker in terms of the rest of Europe, Neymar is still sidelined, but Edinson Cavani who missed the first leg has resumed training and is available if required.
However, everyone knows all this and it is factored into the odds, so looking for more of an edge......... PSG have scored 35 goals in their last 10 CL home starts, they have led at half time in seven, by multi goals in five, including 2-0 versus both Barcelona and Bayern, twice they scored 4 in the opening 45 minutes, in the most recent, they led Liverpool also 2-0 and it should have been more, before the Reds scored in the 45th minute with their only attempt on target of the game.
Of course, they don't need to score early, but will have a big crowd, are used to winning, can almost not play any way other than on the front foot and will have a lot of the ball, with United woefully short of midfield options and again, PSG do have something to prove, not just to the rest of Europe, but themselves and I don't feel we will see any easing off from them until they are a couple up on the evening and that could again be early.
If you want to bet on the game I would have to suggest best value pre match was .............1.5 units PSG -0.75 ball 2.43 asian line/Sportmarket.
Real Madrid- Ajax Amsterdam
Not a great last week for Real, two losses at the Bernabeu to Barcelona, conceding four goals without scoring , leaving them out of the Copa del Rey and seemingly booked for third in La Liga. It will doubtless be all about the Champions League again from here on in , where they are looking for a 4th straight title which would be like a knife into Barce hearts and would mean that a repeat of the five wins between 1956 and 1960 when the game was VERY different, was on the cards, something which has long claimed to be impossible. No one even repeated between 1990 and 2017. Anyway, Real look good to progress with a 2-1 first leg lead and teams with that advantage from an away game have a 100% progression record at the knock out stage since the competition was renamed.
Real have conceded in 12 of 15 home CL starts, multigoals in six of those and won "just" 66.7%.
Ajax have scored in 12/13 away CL starts, including at Barcelona, PSG and Bayern (this season) , they almost always have huge travelling support, probably 5,000 tonight and that ensures they give of their best for 90 minutes and a lot of those goals have come late, including in the Catalan capital and Paris when those games were all but lost, so the visitors are highly unlikely to throw the towel in should they concede a goal or two. They are a second half team anyway, with 11 of 12 competition goals coming after the break .
Following the win in Amsterdam, Real lost at home to Girona 2-1 after taking a 1-0 lead into the half time break and they have shipped 7 SH goals in five starts, three of which came here at the Bernabeu. Sergio Ramos is suspended for the home side, he has sat out three games this season, two CL matches versus CSKA which they lost by a combined 4-0 and a 2-1 defeat of Levante where their opponent missed a couple of big chances and hit the woodwork twice. They also lost 3-1 at home to Juventus last season (should have been a bigger loss) in his absence.
Easy to see a goal or two in this for Ajax and odds for two or more for the visitor in the second half at circa 5.50 appeal and are far from a forlorn hope given how this is likely to play out. I will be looking at these goal markets in play, but I think I will "officially" keep this simple and go with .............
1.75 units Ajax +0.5 ball 2.40 asian line/Sportmarket .
Good Luck.
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