UEFA Europa League betting preview: AS Trencin - Rapid Wien
Aug 18, 2016
UEFA Europa League:
The Europa League remains the poor relation to the main european club competition, but that is changing to some degree and the additional prize money and reward of a Champions League spot for the following season is fast tracking that and reaching the group stage is now seen as a good revenue stream by some and is worth a minimum additional 2.4m € and could easily raise far more than double that.
This playoff round is now treated far more seriously by the "bigger" clubs who have dominated the last couple of years and we have a firm pattern in these first leg ties, with few draws (just 18.07% 15/83) in the last three seasons, but relatively low scoring games, with 44.58% going "over". Not sure if that helps, but a lack of draws is always "good".
AS Trencin - Rapid Wien
I previewed Trencin's home game with Legia Warsaw in the Champions League, speaking about their lack of real European experience, poor home form , absences and the neutral venue ...........
We have spoken a lot in recent years about how European football has changed and so many knockout games are decided with an away goal (or two) and 0-0 is certainly not viewed as a particularly good result. Slovakian champions Trencin are still novices at this level, despite playing European football in each of the last four seasons ( only Intertoto previously), they have yet to pass this stage of those two Europa League and two Champions League ( last two) campaigns and lost the home leg to Steaua Bucharest 2-0 last year and in Q2 this season to NK Olimpija of Slovenia, by a 3-2 scoreline. They have been involved in some real shootouts and have conceded at least twice (10 goals in total) in all four ties in the competition and I don't really see them having the discipline or experience to be priced as favourites to beat a team like Legia.
Both teams have key absences, but Legia have stronger alternatives and the host's backline is VERY young and inexperienced and will probably include two 18 year olds in front of a 20 yo keeper who has made only three league starts, or a more experienced goalie who has totally lost confidence. Match will be played in the Stadion Pod Dubnom in Zilina, some 85km from Trencin and only five hours by road from Warsaw.
Legia won 1-0 and Trencin have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 European and domestic games and look up against it tonight playing a team who score a lot of goals, are experienced Europa League campaigners and happy on the road. This match will again be played in Zilina and that is less than three hours drive from Vienna and at least 2,000 Rapid fans will be making the journey, they might form half the crowd and will certainly be making more than 50% of the noise and this doesn't really have the feeling of an away tie !
Rapid have played in the group stage of 4 of the last 5 Europa Leagues and will certainly not wish to miss out on the additional prize money, they served us quite well early last season and ahead of a trip a Champions League second leg with Ajax I spoke about their goal scoring exploits .......
I am a little tempted by Rapid given that they fought back a man down to claim a share of the spoils in the first leg, ending the match a little stronger even after the dismissal of Stefan Schwab, who will, of course, be suspended this evening. That was not a total surprise as they should be well ahead in terms of match fitness, being two games into their new domestic season, they have received a major confidence boost since, with a 2-1 road win over title favourites FC Salzburg at the weekend and they have been scoring freely with 12 goals in four competitive starts. Ajax have yet to start their Eredivisie campaign, they begin that with a tough trip to AZ Alkmaar at the weekend and despite the importance of the match this evening, will probably have half an eye on that and a solid start to their domestic season after finishing a whopping 17 points adrift of champions PSV last season.
They won that 3-2, but lost out to Shaktar Donetsk in the playoff round, despite posting a 2-2 draw in the Ukraine, they went on to reach the last 32 of this competition and picked up a nice few m€ for their european exploits and the club accountant will be banking on more of the same. They have started hitting the back of the net with similar ease and have 11 goals in their last three starts are scoring for fun and with so many travelling fans to reward and please, I feel we will see more of the same.
1.5 units Rapid Wien -0.5 ball 2.04 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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