This weekend's EPL games .......
Oct 29, 2023
I previewed seven of this weekend's EPL fixtures, four being played today and three on Friday/Saturday and you can see that trio of previews below as they serves as good examples of what is produced in the daily newsletter ..........
Palace were arguably the better team in the first half and went in at half time all square at 0-0, Wolves drew 2-2 and Brentford won 2-0.
Premier League:
Crystal Palace - Tottenham Hotspur
It seems churlish to try and pick holes in the start Tottenham have made under Ange Postecoglou , as things could hardly have gone any better, but that is what I am here for and they do give you chances and Fulham, if they had not been as toothless, should definitely have scored in a 2-0 defeat in North London on Monday. Two things about that, it makes for a quick turnaround for Spurs and goals change games and if the Cottagers had scored one, then who knows. We can expect a reaction from Palace after a no show in Newcastle last weekend where they started sloppily and fell out of the blocks. That is not really them under Roy Hodgson, who always has his team well set up and tactically ready to play to their strengths, goals are always likely to be in short supply, but I was impressed by them at Lionel Road recently and they have the ability to at least trouble the highflying visitors . The last two h2h meetings at Selhurst Park have finished 3-0 and 0-4 and despite that heavy loss last season, Palace were the better team in the first half and went in at 0-0 when they should have been ahead and bossed three of the four halves played and that gives them something to build on. Since Hodgson returned, the Eagles have been very good next time out after a defeat with 10 points and eight goals from four games, including a win at Old Trafford. Palace to come out firing...........
2 units Crystal Palace First Half betting level ball 2.85 asian line.
Wolverhampton Wanderers - Newcastle United
There are plenty of holes in the Wolves numbers , but they are on a roll and bossed Liverpool here at Molineux for an hour or so, then beat Manchester City and drew with Villa ( despite playing with ten men) and last time out came from behind to win at Bournemouth and although the Cherries were not helped by a dismissal , Wanderers really played some inventive offensive football once they got back on level terms and are clearly brimful of confidence. United must be tired after an exhausting game with Dortmund on Wednesday on a heavy pitch in gruelling conditions, against a team who press very hard and have had to carry the disappointment of that defeat into Thursday. Which I assume will either be a day off or very light day at the training centre, leaving only Friday to fully prepare for Wolves and also for travel. The hosts will have been able to put in four full training sessions just with the United game in mind and still have plenty of time to rest and recover and it really is an enormous advantage. Having more than held their own with Pool, City and Villa, they are not going to fear the Magpies and they are unbeaten in five h2h meetings as host (both teams scored in each) and their odds feel too big.
2 units Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.25 ball 2.47 asian line.
I wanted to give myself another day or two to think about the Chelsea-Brentford game, with the Bees looking for a third straight win at Stamford Bridge, they won the first 4-1 and the second by 2-0 back in April after which I noted .............
Much has been written about the Bees scoring twice at Stamford Bridge from just one attempt on target, but the game felt very different in the stadium and I never thought that Chelsea would score. Bees switched to a 5-3-2 which they always do against the "big names" and have done so with great success, but they were without DM Christain Norgaard and opted to rotate some key offensive players, which gave them a lot of pace to call upon from the bench and that brought about the second goal. Highlight of the evening for me was this from Ben Mee (EPL defensive signing of the season) and the reaction of Thomas Frank and the bench afterwards. That highlights the confidence within the group and Mee was not noted for "hot dogging" too much in his many years at Burnley!
Bees have have had a horrific time with injury and suspension and early last week had 12 senior players missing, but they got goalkeeper Mark Flekken back and Ben Mee returned to the bench but was an unused sub, however, just having him in the squad is a boost. Today they will get Aaron Hickey back from suspension and possibly one other to the squad/bench. So, at long last a few options. Brentford might have only beaten Burnley (who were toothless) last week, but it was a big game for the Bees and a return to form and goals and noteworthy that forwards Mbeumo and Wissa both made the scoresheet and on another day, Brentford score 5-6 goals (they missed 4 BC's). We also got to see the EPL debut of Yehor Yarmoliuk and a few more minutes from Michael Olakigbe, both are just turned 19yo have been in the first team squad for a while and have limitless potential, when one or both are sold to a Big 6 club in the future, remember where you heard about them first. Bees have a tough week or so ahead, Chelsea and Liverpool away , with the Hammers at home sandwiched in between, but they become easier with the three points from last week on board. Brentford are 7th for xP with those numbers giving them another 5 points on board and with a little luck and fewer injuries, would and should have been pressing for the European spots.
Chelsea have found a few goals, 8 in their last three starts and were good for a half or so against Arsenal ( I suppose) but Brentford are better than Fulham and Burnley and the Blues have really struggled at Stamford Bridge when the onus is on them to make the running. In their last 20 EPL home games they have won just 4( !) Bournemouth, Palace, Leeds, Luton and failed to score in 9 of those, more than a single goal just five times, yet are priced at 1.63 to win today, explain in 100 words or less why that makes any sense at all and email it to Todd Boehly! At the same time please tell him I have some magic beans to sell!
Brentford's road xGD is 7.0-3.8 which includes trips to Newcastle and Old Trafford and make impressive reading. I don't want to get overly involved ( I will be overjoyed with the three points anyway), but now that they have stopped the rot and started to get a few players back, neither do I feel we should let such odds go unbacked.
1.75 units Brentford level ball 4.19 asian line.
Good luck!
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