What's happening in the Championship ?
Feb 11, 2020
Championship:
ITB:
Teams are shown in league table order and all have now played 31 rounds.
WBA +74 (58-19 +39)
Leeds +172 (61-30 +31)
Fulham +13 (35-28 +7)
*Forest -29 (44-48 -4)
Brentford +132 (50-21 +29)
PNE +43 (39-27 +12)
Bristol City -61 (43-45 -2)
Cardiff -16 (42-34 +8)
Swansea -18 (40-40 =0)
Millwall +9 (30-58 -28)
Sheffield Weds +69 (28-36 -8)
Blackburn -11 (30-27 +3)
Derby -39 (25-33 -8)
Hull -13 (32-49 -17)
Birmingham +15 (38-42 -4)
*Reading -14 (41-51 -10)
QPR +12 (34-44 -10)
Middlesbrough -29 (42-35 +7)
Huddersfield -78 (40-33 +7)
Stoke +79 (34-28 +6)
Charlton -111 (24-44 -20)
Wigan -57 (36-47 -11)
Barnsley -30 (29-40 -11)
Luton -112 (25-41 -16)
Figures directly next to each team are net ITB numbers for the 31 rounds played to date . Numbers in brackets/parentheses are for chances created-conceded for the last 5 games (* last 6 for these two teams) so Leeds for example have created 61 attempts inside the box, given up 30 for a net +31.
Anything highlighted in blue type is a "good" number, in red a poor one , either relative to league position overall, or for recent form.
Where to start ?
Charlton, Forest and Bristol City have pretty much been posting bottom half of the table numbers all season and that was true even when Athletic were top 6-7 through a dozen games, they have fallen to their true level , the other two have hung on in there, but I am not having City as a playoff contender and got a good look at Forest recently and was not overly impressed. They are well organised and disciplined, but lack flair and are happy to play on the back foot and look to "spoil", their goalkeeper was booked for time wasting inside 20 minutes at Griffin Park (pictured) and if that is how you want to play the beautiful game Mr Lamouchi, you are welcome to it ! These tactics have worked for Aitor Karanka ( Boro) and David Wagner (Huddersfield) in recent seasons, but look where both are now and before someone says that they got the Premier league money and parachute payments, both are now also struggling financially !
In Boro's case I gave a warning about this last season and updated before the start of this campaign with ..............
Two transitioning teams in my opinion.
Definitely in Boro's case , new head coach Jonathan Woodgate has got a clear mandate and that is to get away from the mind numbing and boring football they have served up for the last five or so seasons, I spoke about this mid last season ...........
Two promotion candidates, Boro are 5th, three points adrift of Albion, but have scored almost a goal per game less, that says it all for me, the visitors just do not pose enough goal threat, that is nothing new, they had a very much defensive first approach under Aitor Karanka and Tony Pulis has had to, or wanted to, continue in the same vein and it is a long time since we saw a truly adventurous Middlesbrough team, I am talking years ! There were rumours in the transfer window that they were keen on Neal Maupay and Romaine Sawyers from Brentford, two things, the term square pegs in round holes were never more appropriate, unless they were planning to completely change their set up mid season, which was not going to happen and secondly, they were never going to cough up the £30m plus required ! In the end, a lot of (sorry) deadwood was allowed to leave to lower clubs on loans/small transfers and ex-Chelsea midfielder John Obi Mikel (just 60 minutes against a League 2 team in over three months) was their alternative signing. They also lost CB Danny Batth who was recalled by his parent club Wolves and then sold to Stoke City. I suspect the money well is a little dry and unless Pulis does a miracle and gets this limited team up, we will see a sea change and major rebuilding process at the club with a different mindset and I suspect head coach.
Goodness, that was a good paragraph, with a lot of info and Boro, continued on their merry way, bored us all senseless and scored just 49 goals ( fifth fewest in the Championship) and finished outside the playoff spots. I don't think there is much cash left, but anyway, Steve Gibson cried "enough" and wants a complete overall in how Boro play, if that takes time and it will, then so be it, but we will see a different Middlesbrough this season and all I can say is ......hallelujah !
Woodgate, as a favourite son of Boro will get patience to a degree, but no money, he has got rid of some big earning players, which is stage one, now it is trying to play a certain way with youngsters and low money purchases, it will be tough and another promotion campaign sounds fanciful to me in the extreme and you have to sometimes take two steps backwards to go forward. also, as far as I can see they have an 18 man squad, 7 are the wrong side of 30, two are inexperienced new signings with no Championship know how (where the **** has all the money been spent !) and the match day group is often going to have to be padded out with youth. Gibson should have stepped in sooner, but this is a damning indictment of Karanka's management skills, of which there seem precious few !
That was a good summary, early season was very hard for them and the lack of options remain, but Woodgate has done pretty well and their ITB numbers are on the rise, I got a good look at them on Saturday, they lost to Brentford 3-2 but were the first team to come to GP and create more that 4 attempts ITB (7) since Methuselah was a young man and there was a lot to like about their performance, a team on the up.
I know I mention it everytime we round up ITB stats, but those Brentford defensive stats are through the roof, early season they and Leeds were head and shoulders above the rest of the Championship in terms of chances given up, but the Bees have pulled away from even United now and have given up just 4.65 attempts on their own goal per game ITB and 4 or fewer in 20 starts, including 9 of their last 11, no one is really working out how to break them down and that gives a further boost to the Boro numbers. Credit to the Brentford backline and also Christian Norgaard, there might be a better deep lying midfielder in the Championship, but I have not seen him !
Stoke City, despite their terrible start to the season and 20th place currently, continue to post top 4 numbers and have now won 8 from 16 under Michael O'Neill (just 2 from their first 15) and the 26 points collected under the "new" boss equates to 5th place across all 31 games and that is clearly their level and backed up by XP (see below).
Despite Sheffield Wednesday's eye catching +69 for a team in 11th, I did issue a warning about them after I went to Hillsborough in early December and noted .............
I saw Wednesday- Brentford on Saturday, late injury and illness meant that the Bees were without two of their starting back four in Pontus Jansson and Henrik Dalsgaard, the latter was replaced by young Danish right back Mads Roerslev Rasmussen who was making his first team debut start. Despite that Brentford dominated the first half , led 1-0 at the break and should have been two or three up at that time, it was the archetypal game of two halves though and Wednesday scored twice inside 3-4 minutes midway through the second, both from the same flank, with Kadeen Harris providing each from the side protected by Roerslev. The first was a gifted handball/penalty in a defining moment of the game.
The Owls were poor for much of the first hour, one dimensional, predictable and slow and the Bees must still be wondering how they lost and I am pondering how Wednesday have put together such good recent stats . I have had a look at their results and prior to Saturday, their eight wins came versus 17th placed Charlton, 18th Reading, 19th Middlesbrough, 20th Luton, 21st Huddersfield, 22nd Wigan, 23rd Stoke, 24th Barnsley and , having seen them close up, they will need a lot to go their way to beat the better teams.
They have gone 3-3-5 subsequently and their last five game ITB numbers give further cause for concern. I always say that the ITB and XP stats are a starting point and we have to use them alongside something we have preferably seen with our own eyes.
After a real dip, last five numbers for Albion look terrific, not only are they creating for fun, they are giving up so few chances and they look back to early season levels right now, more importantly their self belief seems to have returned.
Fulham are a second half of the season team and look well positioned to launch a big push, BUT they have been posting negative ITB numbers since Round 12 and that is a "worry" (not for me of course, I hope it is a big issue !).
Derby are 5-1-1 since the New Year weekend fixtures , but that upturn is not reflected in numbers and they have only really played Stoke of the stronger teams in that sequence and my concern is that they are scoring, but from very few real chances and I wonder how long that can continue.
ITB puts top ten as ...........
Leeds +172
Bees +132
Stoke +79
Albion +74
Wednesday +69
PNE +43
Birmingham +15
Fulham -13
QPR +12
Millwall +9
Everyone else is on a negative number and highlights what I have been saying all season that this is a very weak Championship.
XP sees the top 10 as...........
Leeds 77 pts
Brentford 64
Stoke 55
Wednesday 54
WBA 53
Fulham 52
Wigan 47
PNE 46
Swansea 45
QPR 45
15 rounds left to play now and with a little gap opening up between the top 7 and the pack, I thought it would be worthwhile looking at remaining fixtures, so, in terms of h2h games between the top 7.
Albion play 5 such games, 3 at the Hawthorns and 2 on the road.
Leeds just three, 2 at Elland Road and one at Griffin Park tomorrow night !
Fulham six, four of which are on the road.
Forest four, two home and two away.
Brentford four, three at GP.
Preston five, four of which are on the road.
Bristol City five, three at Ashton Gate.
Stoke who are clearly amongst the stronger teams and on a roll play 5 of the top 7 (not Albion and Fulham).
Of course, games against teams battling relegation become increasingly difficult as the season progresses, meeting teams in midtable safety is ideal, but hard to pick those out right now, also, a big difference between a team fighting relegation and one relegated. Brentford finish at home to Barnsley and if the Tykes are already down, it will be very different from them having a survival chance on final day.
Finally what do you need to finish top 2 from here on in ? Last 5 seasons have seen the top 2 teams collect between 28-37 points over the last 15 games, three teams had exactly "just" 28 and with things so close and teams sure to take points off each other that might be enough, but the average was 32.0 and the last time the top 6 were as close at this stage, it required 31 and 33 and so that average should probably be the target.
No team has been promoted automatically with less than 89 points since 2012-13, but to reach that number even Albion need to win 10 from here on in and everyone else between 11-13 games and it seems very unlikely.
If any of the current top 5 teams post 10 wins I suspect that will give them a top 2 spot and Premier League football next season.
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.
Good Luck.
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