Kylian Mbappe is probably the best player in the world right now and Antoine Griezmann, despite his deathly pallor and looking like a gust of wind could blow him over, is finally back near the top of his game, but there is much less quality in other areas and defensive question marks against Les Bleus. They have conceded in 9/10 starts, including in all four games at the WC and meet much stronger offensive opposition today.  England do have the pace of Kyle Walker to match up against Mbappe and it appears both players are relishing the battle ahead and Gareth Southgate just needs to continue to be brave , which is not the same as foolhardy, as his team also have all their real quality in front areas and an array of offensive options that few teams can match . For such a young squad (11 aged 25 or under) who are still improving, they have a wealth of big tournament experience and reached the semi finals in Russia in 2018 and final in last year's Euros . They rode their luck early against Senegal in the R16, but have kept three consecutive clean sheets at these championships whilst playing a trio of FIFA top 20 ranked opponents and have created a non penalty xGF of almost exactly 2.0 through their four starts, giving up just 0.80 and they look the better balanced team. 

 

France are vulnerable on the flanks and even Poland had joy out wide, Jules Kounde is a CB who is being asked to play on the right of a back four which is difficult at this level and he and fellow "full back" Theo Hernandez are often left isolated and offered little support by Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele, and for all their qualities, that duo often forget that they have defensive responsibilities too. The French also do not have the bench options that England have, in fact their cupboard is startlingly bare, they have Kingsley Coman but he has barely been used, the other five midfield and forward options are all young and lack experience (unlike their England counterparts) with 18 starts between Guendouzi/Camavinga/Fofana/ Thuram/Muani. Take Mbappe out of the equation and England are favourites for me, with him in it feels like a coinflip and any value with the Three Lions off level ball or to qualify. Either is good , but I do feel that the longer this goes , the greater England's chance becomes, despite not wanting them to set up too defensively.

 

 

Good luck!