United are 5th in the EPL, a point adrift of Arsenal, but having played three games more , they have collected 7 points fewer than at the same stage last season and even that total and position is flattering to them, as anyone who has seen them play a few games this season will probably testify. They are coming off a 3-2 win over Tottenham at Old Trafford, but created less than 1.0 xGF in that and lost xGD by 0.8 . That was on the back of a 4-1 loss in the Manchester derby where they put in disgraceful second half showing, with some players seemingly "not bothered ". They drew the reverse fixture in Spain 1-1 , but lost that by 1.0 xGD, Atletico were 2-1 BC's. 10-1 ITB and hit the woodwork twice. This is a substandard United and xP places them 10th in the EPL, below Crystal Palace , Southampton, Brighton and Brentford ! However, they do have CR7 and he can usually be relied upon in the biggest games and gave a very recent reminder of what he is still capable of, with that hat-trick on Saturday.

 

We can also make a very decent case for Atletico having gone backwards too, they are 4th in La Liga just 2 points ahead of Betis, 4 above Sociedad and with 15 points fewer than at the same stage of last season, but they got a good look at United three weeks ago and I doubt anything they saw would have caused too many sleepless nights. Few who saw it will forget their 3-2 ET win at Anfield at this stage in 2020 and memories of that will help confidence levels this evening and also tell us that they will not panic or be overly concerned about taking this into ET, in fact, I would be surprised if that wasn't their target coming to Old Trafford. 

 

I am torn between BTS and 1-1 correct score , so best to go somewhere in the middle, this could be a very long evening and decent value with ..............