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Jun 17, 2021
I sent out a very large number of free newsletters this morning, to pretty much everyone in my database, but on the off chance you did not receive a copy, you can read it below.
It is sent out about 20 times per year, once or twice per month and usually contains an update on what has been happening at clubgowi, along with an article and/or stats, plus a couple of previews that are not available to read elsewhere (social media/website) as free to view content.
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Good luck !
Thursday June 17th
Next free newsletter will be sent in about four weeks time.
This edition includes an article discussing the squad age of teams in the top two divisions of English football, a look at the month ahead and the upcoming Premier league season and previews of two games taking place today.
You don't win anything with kids !
Or do you ?
I was looking at the age makeup of all squads in the top two tiers in terms of actual minutes played and there were some interesting numbers which appeared to suggest and not for the first time, that youth was the way to go.
This was especially true in the Championship, where for the second season running Barnsley and Brentford had the youngest squads and they finished 5th and 3rd with the Bees winning the playoffs (sorry, I am not going to let the chance to mention that pass any time soon !). The four youngest groups were, in order Barnsley (finished 5th), Brentford (3rd), Reading (7th) and Blackburn (15th), Rovers might have finished bottom half, but we spoke often of them being better than that and they were actually 5th for xP. If we extend that young end of the league a little further, the next three teams were Coventry (the only one of the promoted teams to survive), Swansea (4th) and Norwich (champions). The four oldest groups were Sheffield Wednesday (24th), Birmingham City (18th), Millwall (11th) and Wycombe 22nd), two were relegated and only one of the seven oldest made the top 10 .
In the Premier League, the four oldest groups were Crystal Palace (14th), Burnley (17th) , West Ham (6th) and Newcastle United (12th), the next four were in order Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool, Sheffield United and Wolves, you can make a case for all of that quartet having "terrible" seasons, albeit in some cases from a sky high level, but of that eight only the Hammers can be really happy with how 2020-21 played out.
The four youngest squads used were at Fulham (18th), Villa (11th) , Manchester United (2nd) and Brighton (16th). This might not be as cut and dried as Fulham were relegated ( stop cheering !) and Brighton struggled but the pair were 16th and 5th for xP respectively, Villa had their best season in a decade ( since 2010-11) and United were top 2 for only the second time in eight campaigns and also made the Europa League final. The 5th youngest team were Chelsea (4th) , who also made the FA Cup final and won the Champions League, champions Man City who also made the Champions League final, had the 7th youngest group.
The more mature groups did better further down the footballing pyramid, but Lincoln (5th) and Hull City (champions) had two of the three youngest squads used in League 1.
With 15 of the England squad for the Euros aged 25 or younger, following just 9 in 2012, 11 in 2016 and way up from just five at the 2010 World Cup, it is clear the way things are going and the more reliable old adage (than the one we started with),that they are old enough if they are good enough, rings loud and true. The benefits of blooding youngsters are clear and the added bonus is that they are only going to get better with game time, as we saw with Brentford and Barsley this season.
The month ahead:
Just a crazy next 4-5 weeks, when we will be covering European Championship and Copa America, plus the main domestic football leagues from Brazil, Japan and the US (MLS), in addition golf each week, including two majors and two tennis tournaments, one of which is Wimbledon. I think it is just about our busiest month ever, today, for example subscribers were sent six full game previews and you can read two of them below .............
European Championship:
Denmark- Belgium
We are quite big on Belgium outright ..........
At the last Euros I was speaking of it as a last chance saloon for that generation of Portugese footballers and whilst Ronaldo/Fonte/Pepe/Moutinho are still here they are all aged 34-38 yo and it does still feel like it was 2016 or never and that does concentrate minds. I feel similarly about Belgium this time round. They have certainly paid their dues, having made the last eight at the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Euros and were 3rd in the last major international tournament, the 2018 World Cup. They lost in the semi finals to eventual champions France, it was a cigarette paper between the two, Belgium were the better team before the break, Les Bleu after it, both teams had a collection of great players, but on the day, head coach Didier Deschamps knew his squad better and got more out of them as a collective. He had had 6 years with his team, his Red Devils counterpart, Roberto Martinez, less than two and it showed, now he has been at the helm almost five years and I expect him and his team to be better prepared for the key/crunch matches.
Under Martinez, Belgium have risen to become the #1 FIFA ranked team and they are 36-2-3 in all competitive games, the three defeats were the aforementioned game with France and two Nations League games and, some teams were not as motivated for that competition. Looking at the 36 wins, Belgium won 28 by 2+ goals and over half by at least 3 goals, scoring an average of 3.244 goals per game in all fixtures with Martinez as head coach, just an incredible number, to say nothing of the 87.8% win rate !
Their squad is chock full of talent and experience, 9 players have 80 + caps, five have scored 20 + international goals and 11 who played in the game with France are in the squad and surely desperate to make amends/go at least one step further.
Also, Romelu Lukaku to be the top Euros goalscorer ...........
What a couple of seasons Romelu Lukaku has had ! He has contributed to 40 goals in EACH of two campaigns with Internazionale (64 goals and 16 assists) and helped fire them to the Scudetto this season. But for Belgium, just wow ! He has scored in 27 of 38 starts when he plays 45 minutes or more, 42 goals total. Included in that sequence is the 2018 World Cup, where I feel Belgium made a mistake. Lukaku scored four goals in the opening two group stage games , but was then rested , along with 8 others for the game with England, the Red Devils still won, but it felt like Lukaku didn't benefit from the rest and didn't look the same player thereafter and hopefully he will not sit out a full game this time round. In a team that seems likely to play five games at a minimum, his last 38 game average would give him 5-6 goals and we additionally know that Belgium can cut loose at any time and group games with Russia/Finland and even Denmark, who I expect to go well ,give them that option. In the last two years Belgium have scored three against Russia, six in two starts versus Denmark and Finland conceded the second most goals amongst teams who qualified.
How many goals do you need to be top scorer ? Between 4-6 has been enough to earn at least a share of the Golden Boot at the last five Euros and four World Cups, six would have won each and should be the target, the change to a bigger sized tournament has not made much difference and it is usually goals scored in the group stage which determine the front runners in this market. Lukaku had four in his first two starts at the 2018 World Cup and must wonder how Harry Kane took the award. Lukaku looks a more complete player now and Roberto Martinez has spoken of his greater "maturity, leadership and flexibility" in build up to this event. If he stays fit, he has to go close and looks a very solid bet in this market.
They opened with a 3-0 defeat of Russia with Lukaku scoring twice , ahead of which I further noted .............
Belgium beat Russia 7-2 on aggregate in two qualifying games and I suspect the Russians would have rather avoided the Red Devils, Belgium scored five goals in the first half across the two games, missed a handful of other chances and eased off after the break in the second. Belgium also won 2-0 here in Parken against Denmark nine months ago, so positive memories of playing here and it feels like the ideal opening fixture for them. Russia have won just 2/11 starts and kept just a single clean sheet in the last seven, they have played some low level opposition in that sequence and they have conceded 12 goals total in their last five games versus top 30 FIFA ranked opponents. Their squad looks low on real quality and I cannot see beyond a fairly resounding win for Belgium.
It was a very similar tale, Belgium led 2-0 at half time and it was game over. The Russians are very limited and created little and there would surely have been more goals for Belgium if they had wanted/needed them. Now the Red Devils play again in Parken against the "home nation" who look the second best team in the section, but one with the well known and documented events of Saturday hanging over them. Thankfully Christian Eriksen looks on the road to recovery, but it did not look that way at the weekend and many watchers and the Danish players feared the worst and I do not think that I have ever seen a more distraught group of players on a football pitch. They should never have been asked to restart play that day IMO and I suspect that those memories will remain with them for a lifetime. They could be inspired and doubtless will want to "play for Christian" which will be something we will hear a lot of today, but it is never that easy and in truth, what do you expect to be the overriding memory of most as they step onto the pitch today. Brentford's Mathias Jensen seems almost certain to come in for Eriksen as he did on Saturday and I wish him all the best, but as sympathetic as Belgium and all of football are , this feels like a big ask for Denmark, just a few days on from that awful day.
I expect Belgium to win and hope for a Lukaku goal, or two, how about a repeat of their 2-0 win here late in 2020 when they were 5-1 for attempts on target and 3-0 for BC's and Eriksen the Danes stand out performer.
1.75 units Belgium -1 ball 3.00 asian line.
Ukraine- North Macedonia
This game feels like it will be a less sombre and more fun event for sure and it almost screams goals.
Ukraine opened with a 3-2 loss to the Netherlands in Amsterdam, I was quite taken with them, they moved the ball quickly and looked to get forward at every opportunity and showed terrific heart, at 2-0 down most opponents would have given up, but they scored twice and looked like they might win , before goalkeeper Georgiy Bushchan had a rush of blood to the head and made a hard to describe, or fathom error which gifted the home side the lead once more late in the game. Prior to that fixture I had written .............
Ukraine look up for this, witness the shirts they have designed for the tournament, they feature a map of the country that includes Crimea, a region annexed by Russia in 2017, the Russians have complained, but the shirt has been deemed acceptable by UEFA. Andrii Pavelenko , president if the Ukranian FA said: "This is the most valuable outline of our country for all of us, a single and indivisible homeland, where the main melody from my childhood, is the national anthem", a bit of a rallying cry. They were unbeaten and won a tough qualifying group including Serbia and Portugal, with something to spare. They defeated Spain in the National League a month before the Spanish beat Germany 6-0 and prior to Ukraine's qualifying hopes ending with major COVID issues and they started qualification for the next World Cup with a draw away to France. Superstar footballer Andriy Shevchenko has been in charge for six years now and he will know his squad as well as any head coach at these championships, they are a very together group, all of whom (apart from one) either play for or started their career with Dynamo Kyiv or Shakhtar Donetsk, two big domestic and european teams. They are unbeaten in six 2021 starts, have proven they can perform against the cream of European football and appear to be coming to the tournament to make their mark and a statement, and are truly playing for their nation.
The same day North Macedonia had lost 3-1 to Austria here in Bucharest, three things about that, they played openly and with great heart, have an edge by being used to the stadium and having their base in the city, but they are not very good ! Austria should have scored more and got the game done and dusted earlier than they did, but it is hard to see North Macedonia keeping anyone out for too long and we suspected that coming into this tournament and ahead of matchday 1 my notes included ...........
Austria always seem to disappoint, they have only qualified for three major championships in the last three decades and have not won a group stage game at any of them. Hopes were fairly high when they first qualified for the Euros, but they did finish six group points behind a fairly ordinary Poland team and are struggling for goals right now and in World Cup qualifying. However, they know North Macedonia well having been in the same qualification group and took six points off them , winning 4-1 away and 2-1 at home. Those games were wide open affairs, with Austria creating chance after chance, they had a total xGF of 9 goals , with the games producing 52 attempts, 20 on target, 16 BC's, 39 ITB and 14 saves, these are massive numbers between two teams who have qualified for a major event. North Macedonia looked incredibly naive at times in those two games and Austria might have scored 10 goals, probably should have. However, it is true that NM are also better offensively and they have qualified for the euros via their National League campaign and they have scored 14 goals in their last five starts, which, incredibly , included a 2-1 over Germany in Duisburg in WC qualifying. That result sent shock waves around the football world and will ensure that no one treats the debutants lightly, but Austria will surely be as up for this and will be confident with the two h2h games still fresh in the memory and it is hard to over emphasize how dominant they were in those fixtures.
If we use Austria as the yardstick, Ukraine are ranked almost identically @ 24th as opposed to 23rd and come into the competition in better shape and showed nothing in their opener to put us off them, they are also based in Bucharest. Ukraine did look more defensively suspect than I expected, so North Macedonia will get a chance or two and almost always score and are stronger themselves on the front rather than back foot, but they are no Netherlands. I expect to see goals again, there is always one super high scoring section and this looks almost certain to be it.
2 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.09 asian line.
1 unit Ukraine to win and both teams to score 4.0 general quote ............4.11 Pinnacle.
Premier League:
The fixtures for the new 21-22 season were released yesterday and it is set to be a classic , champions Manchester City will be even more desperate to win the Champions League this season which might leave them distracted domestically at times, Chelsea come into the campaign as Champions League winners and will expect to put in a huge title bid, Manchester United are coming off their (joint) highest finish in eight years and Liverpool will be desperate to contend again after a terrible title defence in 20/21 . Newcomers Brentford come into the Premier League with the smallest stadium, lowest budget, but most innovative approach and will provide something different and be good for the EPL. Clubgowi always covers the Premier league to some extent, but expect to extend that coverage this season as long as COVID allows, I will get to see at least 30 games live , which is a big advantage compared to watching on television and it will allow us to look at far more games and in much greater detail.
clubgowi:
There is never a bad time to become a clubgowi subscriber, but right now feels like the best ever and if you are seriously considering taking out a subscription, email me first and I will see what we can do to make it a little less painful and less of a financial commitment .
Good luck !